Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 120349

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
949 PM MDT Sun Mar 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 406 PM MDT Sun Mar 11 2018

The weak short-wave trough sliding past southeast Utah and
southwest Colorado will continue to bring scattered showers to
the southwest San Juan Mountains early this evening with a slight
chance for showers for the foothill areas to the south. This
activity will produce little to no additional snow accumulation
above 8500 feet before the system moves away to the southeast
later in the evening. Showers will dissipate by midnight with
clouds decreasing during the latter part of the night. Expect
clouds to decrease over the northern two-thirds of the forecast
area where dry conditions will continue.

Another short-wave trough will brush northwest Colorado on Monday
bringing scattered showers to the central Colorado mountains from
late morning through the afternoon into the evening with isolated
activity possible in the San Juan mountains. This activity isn`t
expected bring much snow to the higher terrain with accumulations
of just an inch or two possible. During the later part of Tuesday
evening showers are expected to dissipate and clouds will be
decreasing once again overnight.

Temperatures early this week will remain close to five degrees
above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 406 PM MDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Tuesday should be quiet as a ridge of high pressure settles over
the area ahead of a deep eastern Pacific trough. The ridge is
forced east of the forecast area Wednesday with increasingly moist
southwest flow bringing a chance of showers late. Temperatures
will be quite mild with some of the warmest temperatures of the
year likely, but probably not record level warmth.

Expect unsettled conditions Wednesday and Thursday in response to
the influx of Pacific moisture. Warm temperatures suggest
snow levels will be relatively high at around 9000 feet
Wednesday, then lowering to 7500 feet in the north and 8500 feet
across the south. This activity doesn`t look particularly well
organized so don`t expect much in terms of accumulation.

A bit of a break in store Friday, then what appears to be a more
impactful storm this weekend. GFS is significantly wetter and
slower than the ECMWF, but felt that PoPs were underdone and
raised them across the board by about 10 percent. Timing and
positioning details will emerge in greater detail during the
coming week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 949 PM MDT Sun Mar 11 2018

A weak but dry disturbance will quickly brush northwest Colorado
Monday afternoon and bring scattered showers to the central
mountains from approximately 15Z to 06Z Monday night. Elsewhere,
expect mostly clear skies with VFR conditions.




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