Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 200346

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1146 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Issued at 1032 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

A very quiet night ahead as high pressure steadily builds in from
the west. Winds have diminished quite a bit over the last couple
hours, already calm along the Lake Michigan shoreline. Still
slightly higher closer to Lake Huron, but winds there will steadily
diminish through early morning. Temperatures haven`t been all
that quick to drop this evening, still holding above freezing in
many areas, though do expect that to change as winds decouple.
Given the somewhat fresh snowpack and clear skies, inherited min
temps of around 20 degrees inland (give or take) and low to mid
20s near the lakes still look reasonable given expected efficient
radiational cooling once winds diminish across the rest of the
forecast area.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

...Mostly clear, warming temperatures Friday...

Primary Forecast Concern...None.

Fairly straight forward forecast (as opposed to last weeks) with
high pressure continuing to build in from the west. This should lead
to mostly clear skies. Diminishing winds tonight along with the
remaining snow pack should lead to decent radiational cooling
conditions. Expect lows to range from the upper teens to the middle
20s. Mid levels continue to warm Friday and with decent mixing
expect highs to range from the upper 40s north to the middle 50s
southeast. Northwest winds should be lighter too, in the 5 to 10 mph


.SHORT TERM...(Friday night through Sunday)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

...A return to more typical April weather this weekend...

High Impact Weather Potential: Nothing weather-wise...will be
watching rising river level due to snow melt runoff through the

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Large scale pattern across North America
features split flow across the west with disturbances in the
northern and southern branches (southern branch wave over the Great
Basin)...with a more consolidated long wave trough over the eastern
half of North America with the Great Lakes under the west side of
this trough.  Southern branch system looks to stay well south of the
state...while the upper Lakes end up in a weakness in the pattern
between the two flow branches beneath weak anticyclonic flow aloft.
Surface high pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes pretty
much through the weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Minimal this weekend as temperatures are
expected to rebound to something more typical of the third week of
May (which would be highs in the mid 50s).  Fog is a bit of a
concern given ongoing snow melt...and with light winds this weekend.
Guidance is already having trouble with dew points this afternoon
(too high) don`t expect this to be an issue Friday night.  Do
anticipate that dew points will go up Saturday with little change in
air mass...and with good radiational cooling given clear skies/light
winds/snow cover fog potential may be higher Saturday night/Sunday
morning.  Biggest concern deals with snowmelt runoff this weekend
and subsequent rise in rivers.  Rifle River near Sterling is
forecast to continue a slow rise above flood stage at some point
Sunday (a Hydrologic Outlook has already been issued to address this
potential).  So this will need to be monitored heading into next
week (which will be exacerbated by any liquid precipitation).

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal outside of rising river
levels and impact of any additional rainfall to the runoff equation.

Aforementioned southern branch system that is expected to be
crawling across the southeastern U.S. early next week.  Initially
appeared as if this system will remain well south of Michigan...with
a more compact upper low crossing Michigan Wednesday.  But the
trends with this second features has been decidedly south and
weaker...with the possibility of interacting with the lead
southeastern system just enough to induce some deeper moisture along
a deformation axis to lift toward northern Lower later Tuesday/
Wednesday.  So this will be the main threat for precipitation in the
extended periods.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1146 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Quiet, VFR conditions through Friday as surface high pressure
slowly settles overhead. Small chance for some patchy, shallow BR
at MBL/TVC/PLN towards daybreak. Some thin cirrus will likely
spill in from the west by afternoon. Calm or light winds tonight,
remaining light out of the W to NW on Friday.


Issued at 344 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

North northwest winds will continue to be gusty at times through
early this evening. High pressure building in from the west will
decrease winds later this evening and especially overnight with
lighter winds expected Friday. Small craft advisories will end
later this evening but remain through early Friday morning across
portions of Lake Huron.




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