226
FXUS63 KAPX 070539
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
139 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms continue through this evening. Primary
  threat will be localized heavy rainfall. A few strong storms
  cannot be ruled out.

- Rain-free to start the week with chances returning late
  Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 429 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Shortwave troughing will slide east of the Great Lakes tonight,
flattening as it works over the St. Lawrence River on Monday. At the
surface, the cold front currently draped across the far SE corner of
the CWA will continue to work into the southern half of the state
overnight. Mainly zonal mid/upper-level flow will overspread the
region Monday as heights gradually rise behind the shortwave,
helping to build high pressure into the Northwoods to start the work
week.

Forecast Details:

Widespread showers will persist across northern lower Michigan this
afternoon and early evening. Thunderstorms are also expected mainly
southeast of a line from Cadillac to Alpena. A few storms capable of
strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out, as noted in SPC`s mesoscale
discussion from earlier this afternoon, but current thoughts are
that severe wind gusts are unlikely with any activity tonight.
MLCAPE exceeding 1,000 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis will support
thunderstorms over the next several hours, but relatively weak deep
layer shear around 30 kts or less will struggle to organize storms.
Primary threat with activity through this evening will be localized
heavy rainfall across our southeast counties with potential training
storms over the next several hours. Impressive PWAT values around 2"
will support very efficient rainfall, and localized totals of 1-2"
or more will be possible where heaviest rain falls. Otherwise, rain
chances diminish through tonight with rain-free weather and highs in
the mid to upper 70s expected for most on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 429 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast Details:

Shortwave troughing will slide across the Upper Midwest Monday night
into Tuesday, eventually working overhead later Tuesday. Progression
looks to slow through the middle of the week as troughing meanders
across the region, eventually departing east in the Thursday/Friday
timeframe. Rain-free weather is expected to continue through most of
Tuesday before our next chances return Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Another stretch of dry weather appears likely through the second
half of the week as troughing departs, returning again to start the
weekend. Temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer than
average through the period with highs in the 80s for most areas into
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 139 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

MVFR to IFR cigs cover the area, with IFR south and MVFR north.
These clouds (and embedded DZ) will be stubborn to depart, but
should start to exit after sunrise. Once they finally erode, VFR
and quiet conditions prevail for Monday.

Light northerly winds.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...JZ