Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 211401

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1001 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Issued at 958 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

High clouds rapidly thinning, and should continue to do so,
resulting in mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Very dry airmass
and sun combining for another quick diurnal temperature response
this morning, with most areas already well up into the 40s. These
readings will continue to rise, with expected highs this afternoon
well into the 50s (near 60s for some) across interior areas. Lake
breezes will develop, resulting in shoreline communities running
several degrees cooler.


.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

...Gradual warning trend continues...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Large area of strong high pressure and
dry air remains centered over the Great Lakes region early this
morning...resulting in clear skies and dry wx from the Great Lakes
thru the Ohio Valley into the SE US. Clear skies and calm winds are
allowing temps to slowly drop thru the 30s and into the 20s.

As we head into today and tonight...strong surface high center will
remain overhead...maintaining mostly clear and dry wx thru
tonight...with only some thin cirrus drifting overhead. Our gradual
warming trend will continue today with afternoon highs warming into
the 50s across our entire CWA. Temps will cool back into the 20s
tonight thanks to clear skies and calm winds.


.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

...Quiet and mild...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal, although will be monitoring
rising river levels through the weekend due to snow melt runoff.

Pattern Forecast: Split flow aloft across the CONUS is expected to
be evident this weekend with the primarily feature of note slowly
meandering across the central/southern plains and a secondary system
across Alberta/Saskatchewan. Both systems are expected to remain
well south/north, respectively, of northern Michigan as surface high
pressure dominates our weather locally through the weekend into the
start of the upcoming week.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Minimal aside from rising
rivers due to melting snow runoff into next week.

Little in the way of sensible weather is anticipated across northern
Michigan right through the start of next week as aforementioned
surface high pressure sits atop the region. A return to near to
slightly above normal high temperatures is expected both Sunday and
Monday with highs topping out in the mid 50s nearest the lakeshores
to the low-upper 60s inland (normals for the third week of April
range from 52 at ANJ to 56 at TVC/HTL).

The biggest concern through the weekend into next week continues to
be snow melt runoff and resultant rises in area rivers. The Rifle
River near Sterling remains forecast to continue a slow rise above
flood stage Sunday afternoon while the Manistee River near Sherman
is forecast to fall half a foot or so short of minor flood stage.
Either way, the potential for area rivers to spill out of their
banks will need to be monitored through the weekend into next week.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal outside of rising river

Aside from the primary concern continuing to revolve around rising
river levels into next week, the focus lies in the late Tuesday
through Thursday timeframe as a quick-moving wave slides across the
central plains, perhaps interacting with the aforementioned southern
stream wave slowly moving across the southern tier of the CONUS late
this weekend. Low precipitation chances will be the result, mainly
from Tuesday night through the first half of Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Large area of strong high pressure and associated dry air will
maintain solid VFR conditions at all Northern Michigan TAF sites
today and tonight. Light winds will lend to lake breeze
development by afternoon.


Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru the weekend as
high pressure remains in charge of the wx across the Great Lakes
region. Dry wx and mainly clear skies are expected...with a
continuation of the gradual warming trend into next week.




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