Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 150754

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
254 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Surface analysis early this morning shows a dry cold front dropping
through central MN and northern WI with Canadian high pressure
following it southward. Meanwhile, a potent area of low pressure is
developing over the lee of the Rockies over WY/CO. Aloft, a sharp
ridge axis resides over central NOAM with deep longwave troughs over
the eastern and western NOAM coasts. As the day progresses, the
center of the high pressure area will slide to the MN international
border while the potent low pressure system develops further over
western CO/eastern KS. The surface low will slide slowly eastward
into central KS this evening through overnight tonight while the
area of high pressure over MN/WI also slowly slides eastward. The
high and its ridge axis aloft will keep the low pressure system well
to the south of the WFO MPX coverage area and also keep any
precipitation away from the area through daybreak Friday morning. As
such, aside from passing high clouds through the day today and a
slight increase in clouds late tonight, mainly over southwestern MN,
the only effects of the synoptic scale systems will be slightly
cooler temperatures as compared to yesterday. Highs today will
mainly range 35-40 followed by lows tonight 10-20 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Main concern in the long term remains chance for freezing rain and
snow over far south central MN, mainly along the I90 corridor
Friday into Friday night. Then timing of the next snow threat
arriving next Monday/Tuesday time frame.

Models on converging on the possibility of a wintry mix of light
freezing rain and light snow over far southern Minnesota
developing Friday and continuing into Friday night. At the moment,
the greatest chance of accumulating precipitation is along the
I90 corridor Friday afternoon/night. Any ice accumulation will
likely be limited on roads with temperatures warming into the mid
or upper 30s Friday afternoon. Any snow accumulation should be an
inch or less as well. Low confidence on overall ice accumulation
for the event so a headline is not anticipated. This could change
if more ice lifts into the area early in the period.

Clouds will likely linger to the west into Saturday. Warmer air,
building upper ridging, is expected to move in over the weekend
however, with temperatures expected to warm through the 40s on

Timing of the next weather system remains in question with the
deterministic ECMWF slower with the incoming trough/energy.
Blended guidance looks reasonable taking into account the slightly
faster GFS. Will leave these PoPs go for now with the greatest
coverage moving in for Tuesday across most of the cwa(except far
easter area of west central WI). Cooler than normal temperatures
are expected following the system but warming again by the end of
next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

VFR conditions throughout. Some patchy fog is possible close to
daybreak. Northwest winds overnight will become northeasterly on

KMSP...VFR conditions throughout. Some patchy fog is possible
close to daybreak. Northwest winds will become northeasterly on

FRI...VFR. Wind E 10-15 kts.
SAT...Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR ceilings. Wind E 5 kts becoming
SUN...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts or less.




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