Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 140030
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
730 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018

Clouds continue to scatter across southern MN as mixing deepens
this afternoon. The clearing will be short lived however as
another wave makes its way east northeast from the Plains tonight
and Monday. There could be a sprinkle or two late tonight across
central Minnesota, but felt the odds were too low to mention in
the forecast. A better chance for showers will come Monday as the
main wave heads across. Poor lapse rates should keep the thunder
threat quite low. The clouds and showers may keep temperatures
lower than currently forecast, but temperatures could rebound
quickly if breaks in the clouds develop so stayed close to
guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018

The weather pattern becomes less stagnant this week. The upper level
low over the Great Basin is expected to weaken and upper level
ridging will develop over the North Central and Northwestern
CONUS. This will cut-off the Pacific moisture and allow for drier
conditions across the CWA beginning overnight on Monday. Near the
surface, the quasi-stationary boundary over Iowa and Illinois will
progress southward. Southern Minnesota will be able to see some
sunshine again Tuesday! This will allow for above normal
temperatures of upper 70s and lower 80s on Tuesday and low to mid
80s on Wednesday.

As for fire weather concerns, Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the
driest days in the long-term period. Humidity values will drop to
near 25-30% in Central MN and West Central WI during the late
afternoon hours on Tuesday and around 30-35% on Wednesday. Slightly
more moist conditions are anticipated in Southern Minnesota where
there has been recent rain and more shallow mixing due to scattered
cloud cover. Winds look to remain light 5-10 kts during peak heating
time on Tuesday and Wednesday.

On Thursday, an upper level low is expected to develop again in the
Great Basin. Pacific moisture will once again be advected to the
region and cyclonic vorticity will induce surface low pressure over
the high Great Plains. A weak quasi-stationary boundary will provide
a chance for showers on Thursday primarily in Western MN with a
slight chance for thunderstorms during the afternoon. Rain chances
will spread east into Western WI and continue through Saturday. The
upper level low over the Western CONUS will weaken and the surface
boundary will progress southward. This will allow for cooler air
over the CWA late Saturday and drier conditions by late Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 730 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018

Remnants of stratus from last night remain in southeast MN, the
LAV shows this expanding into MKT and EAU this evening, but hrrr
and RAP keep this stratus where it is and even drop it south.
Given the weak low level flow, kept MVFR cigs out of all MPX
terminals. Tonight, shortwave currently over southeast WY will run
around the ridge toward southern MN by Monday afternoon. This
will likely give us a repeat of Saturday, with mostly cloudy skies
and a couple of bands of sprinkles/light rain moving across the
area coming from cigs based between 8k and 10k feet. The one area
where CAMs are in best agreement on precip forming is across
central MN, on the northern edge of the shortwave and ahead of a
weak cold front that will be dropping south out of northern MN, so
added a vcsh mention at AXN/STC.

KMSP...With surface ridge overhead for the next 30 hours, we`ll
have quite variable winds, though they will favor the SSW through
the night and favor a more westerly direction Monday. Favoring a
NAM/CAMs idea where MSP stays dry tomorrow, but even if we do see
rain in the afternoon, it will be very light with no sub-VFR
cig/vis restrictions expected.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue-Wed...VFR. Wind light and variable.
Thu...VFR. Chc -SHRA late. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...AMK
AVIATION...MPG



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