675
FXUS64 KSJT 090501
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1201 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 937 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Quick update to add some small mention of thunderstorms into the
forecast for San Angelo and Abilene for tomorrow (Thursday)
morning. Latest CAMs show convection developing earlier than
originally forecasted, as early as 12Z-15Z, and a little farther
west, as the dryline and then the cold front start to move into
the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Cooler temperatures in store Friday into the weekend with an
unsettled pattern.

On Friday an upper low will be over southern Nevada. This low will
move slowly east over the Four Corners area Saturday and Saturday
night. With a subtropical jet extending from the eastern
Pacific/Baja region across Texas into the Gulf Coast states, an
embedded disturbance or two will will track over the area during the
first half of the weekend. With a northeast breeze and increase in
cloud cover, temperatures will be cooler area wide Friday with highs
in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms will increase across our area Saturday and Saturday
night. Considerable cloud cover and the prospects for rain Saturday
will limit highs to the 70s.

The aforementioned upper low is progged to move east into western
Kansas by early Sunday night with a trough extending to its south.
Medium range models indicate that the low and trough will make slow
eastward progress on Monday. The approach of the upper low and
trough will bring additional chances of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday and Sunday night, with a lingering chance on Monday. With
winds across our area shifting to the southeast and south,
temperatures Sunday will be warmer but still below normal in the
Concho Valley and southern parts of our area. May have a Pacific
front move east across much if not all of our area on Monday. Based
on indications from the 12Z medium range models, rain chances should
drop off Monday night and Tuesday, as the upper trough axis shifts
east of our area. A warming trend is indicated Tuesday and Wednesday
with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s Tuesday, and upper 80s to mid
90s Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Stratus is forecast to develop at the southern 3 sites after 10Z,
resulting in MVFR ceilings. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may
develop near KSJT after 12Z, then move east through the morning
hours. Confidence remains low in this solution, so for now have
introduced a mention of VCSH at KSJT, KBBD, and KJCT. Otherwise,
expect a return of VFR conditions by mid to late morning. Expect
gusty west winds of 10 to 12 knots today, becoming north at 12 to
16 knots behind a cold front that will move through the area this
afternoon and into the evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     94  60  85  59 /   0   0  20  10
San Angelo  98  63  95  62 /   0   0  20   0
Junction    99  66  98  64 /   0   0  20   0
Brownwood   94  63  89  61 /   0   0  40  10
Sweetwater  92  62  84  59 /   0   0  10   0
Ozona       94  65  94  62 /   0   0  20  10
Brady       94  65  90  63 /   0   0  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...Daniels