340
FXUS64 KSJT 171030
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
530 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Expect mainly a dry forecast today and tonight as the storm system
is east of our area. However, the combination of surface heating,
some low level moisture and weak instability may result in a few
thunderstorms mainly across the northern Big Country and Northwest
Hill Country during the afternoon and early evening. The main
hazards will be dangerous lightning and gusty winds. Highs today
will be in the upper 70s and 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Hotter and generally drier conditions are expected in the long
term. By Saturday, upper level ridging will begin moving into west
central Texas, and the 850mb thermal ridge will also intensify,
warming 5 to 10 degrees Celsius from Friday afternoon values. The
upper level ridging will continue through Monday. Monday
afternoon, an upper level closed low is expected to move into the
southern California coast and merge with a northern stream upper
level trough moving southeast into the western U. S. This will
push the upper level ridge to the east, but we will remain hot
through at least Tuesday as the low level thermal ridge remains
intense.

By the end of the long term, a cold front is expected to move
into the area, potentially providing a focus for showers and
thunderstorms from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Expect MVFR/IFR ceilings at most the terminals for a few hours
this morning. Also, some patchy fog is possible. Expect VFR
conditions to return from mid morning through the rest of the TAF
forecast. Hi-Res models are indicating isolated thunderstorms
along the I-10 corridor during the late afternoon and early
evening, but will keep thunder out of the southern terminals for
now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     82  62  94  68 /  10  10   0   0
San Angelo  86  62  98  70 /  10   0   0   0
Junction    90  62 100  70 /  10  20   0   0
Brownwood   81  61  91  67 /  10   0   0   0
Sweetwater  82  64  95  69 /  10   0   0   0
Ozona       87  61  98  70 /  10  10   0   0
Brady       82  62  92  68 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...21