623
FXUS64 KSJT 110526
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1226 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

The visible satellite imagery was showing scattered to broken mid
to high level clouds across the area this afternoon with a few
showers and thunderstorms east of a Sweetwater to Junction line.
Temperatures are much cooler than yesterday. Looks quiet tonight
across the area with just some clouds. Weather gets more active on
Saturday as an upper level disturbance will combine with
overrunning/low level upslope flow and PW values increasing to
1.25 to 1.5 inches for showers and thunderstorms from late morning
through the afternoon. There is a medium to high chance of rain
across much of the area. Localized rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.5
inches are possible mainly across the northern Concho Valley and
western half of the Big Country. Also, an isolated strong to
marginal severe storm or two are possible across the Northern
Edwards Plateau and western Concho Valley during the late
afternoon and evening due to better elevated instability and some
vertical wind shear. The main hazards will be large hail and
damaging winds. Temperatures will remain on the cool side.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Active weather pattern will continue into Sunday. An upper level
low over the Rockies will emerge into the Plains by Monday
evening. Additional disturbances in the southwest flow aloft are
forecast to move overhead Saturday night into Sunday leading to
additional rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Enough
instability and shear will be available (MU CAPE values greater
than 2000 J/KG and bulk shear values near 40 knots) for a few
storms to be strong to marginally severe with large hail the main
hazard. The upper level low will continue moving off to the east
with just a slight of chance of showers and thunderstorms across
our eastern counties on Monday. Tuesday looks quiet as shortwave
ridging builds in over west central Texas. The next storm system
is then forecast to impact the Plains around Wednesday and
Thursday of next week. This will bring our next chance for showers
and thunderstorms along with the potential for another round of
severe weather. Dry weather then returns for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR ceilings expected to continue through mid to late morning.
Chances for showers increase with increasing winds by midday
Saturday. The most likely chance of thunderstorms looks to be in
the afternoon and potentially late evening as well. Better timing
of thunderstorms can be anticipated in later forecasts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     72  59  76  61 /  60  40  90  20
San Angelo  75  62  85  62 /  60  50  60  10
Junction    82  66  86  66 /  30  50  50  20
Brownwood   75  61  75  64 /  40  40  90  20
Sweetwater  71  59  78  61 /  70  50  80  10
Ozona       76  64  85  61 /  50  50  30  20
Brady       76  63  78  66 /  40  50  80  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...SK