177
FXUS64 KSJT 200936
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
436 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

The heat and dry weather will continue across west central Texas
today. Highs will again climb into the upper 90s to around 102
degrees. Records aren`t expected to be broken with both Abilene and
San Angelo records at 105. Winds will continue to be out of the
south and gusty today, but shouldn`t be quite as breezy as they were
yesterday. We could see a few low clouds this morning, mainly east
of a Brownwood to Brady to Junction line, but even if these clouds
do develop, they should scatter out by mid morning at the latest.
Lows will also continue to be warm, dropping only into the low to
mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 434 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate hot and dry weather will result
from a high pressure ridge that sits over our area through Tuesday.
Then, a frontal boundary will affect the area on Wednesday
afternoon, which will limit high temperatures across the Big
Country to the middle 80s. This frontal boundary will combine with
a dryline off to the west to support thunderstorm development
during the afternoon, evening, and overnight hours. Additional
activity is possible across the region on Thursday along the
dryline as a minor disturbance aloft also moves through. All of
this activity will have to be monitored closely for severe weather
potential. Conditions appear to be favorable for possible severe
weather on Wednesday and Thursday. With regards to Tuesday, a
Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place. However, it remains
to be seen if any thunderstorm development can be initiated. If it
does initiate, then these thunderstorms will certainly carry the
risk of severe weather. However, chances remain low (less than
20%) for thunderstorm development. Large hail and damaging winds
appear to be the main concerns at this time. Please check back
over the next day or two for updates.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR conditions are currently affecting all sites with south to
southeast winds. Winds are gusting to 20 to 25 knots at KSJT and
KABI, so will keep gusts in the forecast tonight for those sites.
MVFR ceilings are expected to move north and affect at least KJCT
for a couple hours tomorrow morning, and could also affect KSOA
and KBBD temporarily. By mid morning, low clouds should scatter
out, with only some upper level clouds possible after that.
South/southwest winds will pick up and become gusty at all sites
again during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     97  73  96  73 /   0   0  10  10
San Angelo 102  73 100  71 /   0   0   0  10
Junction   100  72 101  74 /   0   0   0  10
Brownwood   93  71  93  72 /   0   0  10  10
Sweetwater 100  74  98  72 /   0   0   0  10
Ozona       97  72  97  72 /   0   0   0  10
Brady       94  71  95  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20