377
FXUS64 KHUN 150533
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1233 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Tuesday)
Issued at 1017 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley late this evening as
what little convection that did develop earlier this afternoon has
long since waned. As a result, mostly clear/calm conditions are
prevailing across the region. Given the lack of convection today,
don`t think fog will be much of an issue with the boundary layer
remaining dry. All in all, a fairly typical warm/humid mid-July
night with lows dropping into the lower 70s in most locations.
Tuesday will be a near carbon-copy of Monday, with a mostly sunny
morning helping to warm the boundary layer into the low to mid
90s by the afternoon. With dewpoints creeping a touch higher, heat
index values will reach or slightly exceed the 100 degree mark in
many locations, but should remain below Advisory criteria for
Tuesday.

Diurnally driven pulse convection will again redevelop
in the afternoon, but think coverage may be even more limited
today -- with a bulk of the thunderstorm activity focused to our
east closer to the trough axis over Florida into the Carolinas.
Any convection that does get going during peak heating could
potentially become locally strong with gusty winds and heavy
downpours being the main threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1017 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Any convection that does develop on Tuesday will quickly wane with
the loss of heating and expect another warm/muggy night with lows
in the low to mid 70s. With dewpoints continuing to trend ever so
slightly upward, heat will begin to become more of a concern
Wednesday and Thursday as highs are forecast to reach the low to
mid 90s -- with heat index values progged to reach at least the
100-105 degree range (with some locally higher values above 105
degrees noted across portions of northwest and north central
Alabama). Combined with lows remaining in the mid to potentially
upper 70s at night, this may create some elevated heat concerns
and an Advisory may need to be considered in future updates. One
aspect of the forecast that could temper our highs a little lower
will be cloud cover and PoPs as the aforementioned trough axis
from the low over the Gulf gradually shifts to the west. Low to
medium (30-50%) chances of showers and storms will return to the
forecast each day favoring the afternoon and evening hours. A few
storms could become locally strong each day, with gusty winds and
heavy downpours again being the main threats.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 1017 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Our attention in the extended will focus on the progress of Invest
93L that will be moving westward over the northern Gulf during the
middle of this week. Some guidance indicates this system may
develop tropical characteristics before it veers into the LA/MS/AL
coastline during a Thursday night to Friday timeframe. All this
would mean for the Tennessee Valley will be the potential for a
gradual increase in PoPs Friday and potentially into the upcoming
weekend. How widespread this activity will be will depend on the
eventual track of this system -- but long range ensembles are
honing on at least medium chances for showers and thunderstorms.
This would especially be true if this feature begins to interact
with a weak frontal boundary attempting to push southeast from the
Ohio/Mid-Mississippi Valley. Given the deep tropical moisture
that will be present across the Deep South, locally heavy rainfall
and potentially flooding would be the primary concerns. Thus, the
track of this system and how it evolves is something we`ll need
to watch in the coming days. Given the added cloud cover and
potentially higher rain chances, heat impacts don`t appear to be
as high during this late week timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at KHSV and
KMSL. A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, however
coverage will be so isolated, did not include it in the TAFs.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...JMS