963
FXUS61 KILN 262352
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
752 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak system will bring a chance for showers into early evening.
Warmer temperatures along with showers and a chance of thunderstorms
will arrive Thursday into Friday as a warm front pivots north
through the area. A wet weather pattern will continue this weekend
with a good threat for showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday
night as cold front approaches and moves through the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Increased pops this evening though it appears that most showers that
are occurring do not have much to overcome a drier low level and are
barely reaching the ground. Expect next update to show significantly
less if not no activity and will remove any rain threat at that
time. No notable changes in temps were made this evening as observed
values looked to match fcst values.

Amplified mid level flow characterized by a long wave ridge over the
west and a trof over the eastern CONUS, placing the Ohio Valley in a
northwest flow pattern. A sheared out vort moves across the area
this afternoon into early evening with forecast soundings showing
steepening of low-level lapse rates. This was leading to the
development of scattered showers across the area. Have continued to
increase pops over the NBM values with the best threat bisecting
ILN/s area from nw to southeast thru ILN. Pcpn chances end from
northwest to southeast early this evening. Clouds to decrease and
scatter out this evening with an increase in mid and high level
clouds late.

Chilly overnight temperatures drop to lows from near 30 northeast to
the mid 30s southwest/

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The region remains in broad mid to upper level northwesterly flow.
A surface wave is forecast to develop over the central Plains with
isentropic lift developing over the Lower Ohio Valley Thursday. Weak
mid level support moving within the northwest flow will work to enhance
the broad lift late Thursday morning into the afternoon leading to
increasing chances for rain mainly during the afternoon. The best
chance for rain Thursday afternoon is across eastern Indiana, extreme
southwest Ohio, and northern Kentucky. This rain shower activity
shifts southward toward evening. High temperatures Thursday generally
range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

Nose of low level 40kt jet along with the approach of a warm front
will lead to an enhanced chance for showers overnight Thursday.
Elevated instability develops late - mainly across the west - so have
included a mention of thunder. Milder temperatures Thursday night
with lows from 45 to 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A warm front lifts north through the Ohio Valley on Friday. Showers
and embedded thunderstorms are possible especially through 3pm as
warm, humid air arrives from the south. Forecast highs rise into the
70s for most locations by the afternoon. Mild conditions continue
into the overnight with forecast lows barely dipping into the 50s.
Dry conditions are likely overnight since no forcing is expected in
the region.

On Saturday, the Ohio Valley will be firmly embedded in a high theta
e airmass for late March with persistent southerly flow. Showers and
thunderstorms will once again be possible if an embedded shortwave
trough that is currently appearing on some global guidance
progresses through during the afternoon/evening hours. Any
shower/storms likely taper off late overnight as the shortwave
trough moves east.

Sunday into Sunday evening may once again feature active weather
across the Ohio Valley with some severe storms being possible. To
start off Sunday morning, some lingering precipitation from
Saturday`s shortwave trough should be moving off to the east before
a brief period of drier weather is possible. By Sunday afternoon and
evening, a low pressure system is forecast to be moving east of the
Mississippi River Valley into the Lower Great Lakes along with upper
level support. Showers and storms are likely to occur southeast of
the low ahead of an approaching front in this Sunday afternoon to
Sunday evening timeframe. There are some indications that storms
could have the potential to be severe since strong shear will be
moving in from the northwest potentially overlapping with low to
moderate MLCAPE in the warm sector later Sunday. Numerous
uncertainties around the instability profiles and timing of storms
remain.

Cooler temperatures arrive to start the work wee

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will be found through the forecast period. What
showers are making it to the ground this early evening are VFR and
only lower cigs to about 5-6 kft where they pass by. With that in
mind, removed vcsh from terminals. Northwest wind will die out
quickly, in favor of backing to southerly and remaining under 4 kt
overnight. High cloud cover will prevail, though some breaks tomorrow
morning may see just some scattered clouds before clouding back up by
early afternoon.

Winds will pick up tomorrow and be sw at 10-12kt, and some passing
showers again should occur after about 00Z. Have kept any showers
out of the TAF given the high level of uncertainty with both timing
and placement.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible at times Thursday night through
Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...Franks/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Franks