554
FXUS63 KILX 151614
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1114 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and cool weather will prevail today. Temperatures through
  the week will generally remain around normal, with highs in
  the upper 70s to mid 80s.

- Storm chances return midweek with strong to severe storms
  possible Tuesday afternoon. A more significant threat for
  severe is expected on Wednesday. SPC has an enhanced risk
  (level 3 of 5) over the majority of the forecast area
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A high pressure is over the central CONUS and will drift eastward
throughout the day today. Temperatures through the week will
generally remain around normal, with highs in the upper 70s to mid
80s. Winds will be light and westerly. With the two systems this
week, wind direction will bounce between westerly and southerly for
the next two days. Winds will be quite breezy Tuesday, sustained to
15-20 mph and gust of 25-30 mph.

A weak wave/frontal boundary will move through tomorrow, bringing
showers and thunderstorms back into central IL. SPC has a marginal
risk for severe weather for eastern IL, east of I-55. Forecast
soundings indicate bulk wind shear of 30-40 knots and lower MUCAPE
(~1000 J/kg or less). The hazards of concern are gusty (up to 60
mph) winds and near severe/severe hail. The storms Tuesday could be
strong to marginally severe during the afternoon into the evening.
Uncertainty exists on how strong the storms could become. The RRFS
indicates a mostly dry passage of the front for most of central IL.
The HRRR and NAMNest show showers and storms with the front, but
different degrees of coverage. Timing is in the morning into mid
afternoon.

Wednesday is a much better set up for severe weather and potential
flooding over tomorrow`s storms. SPC has an enhanced risk (level 3
of 5) over the majority of the forecast area. The cold front from
Tuesday will lift back up north as a warm front, lifting better
moisture (dewpoints in the 70s and PWATS >2 inches) into central and
southeastern IL ahead of the next round of rain. The LLJ should be
increasing to nearly 50 knots into the evening. Supercells are
possible at the start of the event, but quickly evolving into a QLCS
wind event with embedded tornadoes. Timing for this event looks to
be in the afternoon into the late evening, as per the usual around
here. Stay tuned for future forecasts as the details become more
apparent into the new week.

WPC has maintained an excessive rainfall slight risk for Wednesday.
PWATs look to be around 2.0-2.2 inches. The storms would likely have
torrential rain within them. With many rivers/streams already at or
near flood and saturated soils, flooding could be a concern through
Wednesday. The one saving factor would be the fast storm
motions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to persist through the period. Scattered
diurnal cumulus have developed around 4-5 kft and will persist
through the afternoon. WNW winds continue this afternoon,
sustained around 10 kts. Light SW winds develop overnight,
becoming stronger into the day Tues (gusting 20-25 kts by late
morning). A line of broken showers and embedded storms will
progress west to east across the region Tues AM. Included a
PROB30 for SHRA at all terminals, but may need to add a thunder
mention with subsequent TAF updates.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Copple
DISCUSSION...Copple
AVIATION...Erwin