Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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981 FXUS64 KAMA 082326 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 626 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Surface winds have been light and variable around the combined Panhandles this morning with a stalled surface boundary (cold front) over the area. This boundary is to retreat to the northeast late this afternoon with westerly winds picking up to potentially 20 mph gusting 30 mph for the southwest TX Panhandle for a few hours this evening. The front in the north is progged to push south late tonight with northerly winds overtaking the area. The main push of CAA advection behind this front is expected tomorrow, but also the upsloping winds will help keep temperatures on the cooler side tomorrow with highs in the upper 60s across the northwestern combined Panhandles and 70s over the rest of the combined Panhandles. Tomorrow afternoon surface winds are progged to become more easterly with the southern half of the Texas Panhandle seeing winds pick up to around 20 mph. Besides some breezy winds and temperatures turning cooler tomorrow, overall the weather is expected to be benign in the short term. 36 && .LONG TERM ... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 A large upper level low will be found over the Great Basin on Friday. The Panhandles will be in a zonal to somewhat southwest flow aloft ahead of this low. As the low moves across the 4-corners region, the flow aloft will become increasingly southwest through the weekend. Then the upper level low is expected to track east across southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas Sunday night into Monday. The models are in fairly good agreement on the track of the upper low, but they disagree on the the strength and speed of the low. Showers and thunderstorms may start as early as Friday evening in the west and showers and storms may linger as late as early Tuesday morning in the east. Another system in the northwest flow aloft may bring some showers and storms to the area Tuesday and Tuesday night. As the event gets closer, the time window for rain will likely shrink as models come into better agreement with the speed of the upper level low. Latest ensemble forecasts suggest that the Panhandles have a 50 to 60 percent probability of seeing at least 0.5" of rain from Friday through Monday night. There could be a severe storm or two during this forecast, but it does not look like a favorable set up for days and days of severe weather in the Panhandles. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Breezy conditions are currently holding at all terminals this early evening with potential to see gust nearing the 25kt mark. These speeds could hold into the overnight with most areas not calming till the morning hours. On the directional side, expect all terminals to slowly transition to a more easterly direction by Thursday morning with KGUY already seeing surface winds out of that direction now. This transition will also correspond to moisture and clouds building in over the terminals with a broken cloud deck expected over the north late tonight. However, VFR conditions should remain clear into Thursday morning with CIGs expected to stay high on these cloud decks. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 50 73 47 72 / 10 10 0 0 Beaver OK 46 76 44 76 / 0 10 0 0 Boise City OK 42 68 43 68 / 10 10 10 10 Borger TX 50 77 49 77 / 10 10 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 48 75 47 74 / 10 10 10 0 Canyon TX 48 73 47 72 / 0 10 10 0 Clarendon TX 51 74 50 74 / 0 10 0 0 Dalhart TX 43 70 43 70 / 10 10 10 0 Guymon OK 43 72 44 73 / 10 10 0 0 Hereford TX 48 75 47 73 / 0 10 10 0 Lipscomb TX 48 76 48 77 / 0 10 0 0 Pampa TX 49 74 47 74 / 10 10 0 0 Shamrock TX 50 76 50 76 / 10 10 0 0 Wellington TX 51 77 51 76 / 10 10 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...36 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...11