076
FXUS61 KALY 071724
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
124 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a warm and dry day today, there will be several
chances for rain through this weekend. A few thunderstorms are
possible late tonight and tomorrow, and a couple storms tomorrow
afternoon could be on the stronger side. After another warm day
tomorrow, temperatures trend cooler for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1:20 PM EDT...Upper ridging to our west and a ridge of
high pressure at the surface building over our region are
leading to subsidence and mainly clear skies. This has allowed
temperatures to climb into the upper 60s to low 70s already, and
temperatures should rise several more degrees as we head
through the afternoon. With deep mixing to around 800 mb and
continued sunshine, highs be mainly in the 70s, with some low
80s possible especially in the Mid Hudson Valley.

Dry weather continues through the first half of tonight. With
clear skies and light winds, temperatures should drop off
fairly quickly this evening after sunset, but will level off
after midnight as cloud cover increases and winds pick up.
Overnight lows will likely end up in the 40s to 50s. The upper
ridge weakens as it moves overhead tonight, and an upper low
tracks into the Great Lakes. This feature will be associated
with an area of low pressure at the surface, and will be
responsible for quite a bit of convection upstream overnight. As
the system`s warm front approaches our region late tonight,
this convection will move into our area between 7-10z from west
to east, bringing chances for showers and possibly a few rumbles
of thunder with forecast soundings showing a few hundred joules
of elevated cape. However, with a low-level inversion in place,
the convection should remain elevated and thus severe weather
does not look to be a concern overnight tonight despite
increasing shear as the low-level jet strengthens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecast for tomorrow remains complicated, with a chance for
some stronger storms...The day begins with the surface warm
front continuing to lift northwards through our region. There
will likely be lingering convection around to start the day
associated with this warm front, especially north of I-90. Then,
later in the afternoon, the upper low will open up as it tracks
through upstate NY. The system`s cold front will track through
tomorrow evening, pre-frontal trough will track through the
region tomorrow afternoon.

Behind the warm front, we should get into the warm sector with
temperatures climbing well into the 70s, especially for areas
along and south of I-90. With steep mid-level lapse rates in
excess of 7C/km, this will lead to SBCAPE values approaching
1000 J/kg, with some pockets of locally higher values possible
in the Mid Hudson Valley and western New England. Deep-layer
shear also increased to 60-70 kts. While this parameter space
is fairly impressive for our area, the best upper forcing will
remain to the north and will not overlap with the best
instability/shear. The best chance for any stronger storms
appears to be across the Mid Hudson Valley, western MA, and
western CT with any storms that develop with/ahead of the pre-
frontal trough. Therefore, it looks like a fairly narrow window
from very late morning through mid-afternoon where storms are
possible. With mean flow perpendicular to the low-level forcing,
and weak upper forcing, some discrete storms could develop in
these areas ahead of the pre-frontal trough. The severe threat
is conditional on convection initiating, but if any storms do
develop the primary threats look to be gusty winds with
steepening low-level lapse rates and mid- level drying. Mid-
level dry air and long, straight hodographs also indicate the
possibility of hail with any discrete storms that develop.
Accordingly, SPC has placed our area in a marginal risk for
severe weather tomorrow.

Behind the pre-frontal trough, winds shift to
the west and drier low and mid-level air gets advected into the
region, which will reduce instability and make convective
initiation more difficult. A few additional showers/storms are
possible later in the evening for the Mohawk Valley/western
Adirondacks ahead of the true cold front, but the severe threat
looks more limited at this time with waning instability due to
drier air and loss of daytime heating.

Tomorrow night, lingering showers/thunderstorms come to and end
in the evening/early in the overnight period as heights rise
aloft. The cold front drops southwards across the region, but
may not make it all the way to our southern border with OKX. For
areas behind the front, northwesterly winds advect cooler and
drier air into the region. Lows will generally be in the 40s
(north) to 50s (south). Some patchy fog can`t be ruled out
either, especially ahead of the cold front.

Thursday through Friday...Thursday starts off dry but rain
chances increase through the day. A broad, positively tilted
upper trough will approach the Great Lakes, and there will be
numerous upper shortwaves rotating around this upper trough. At
the surface, an area of low pressure will track from the Ohio
Valley off the Mid-Atlantic coast, bringing increased chances
for showers to the region tomorrow afternoon through Friday. Due
to the amount of small-scale shortwaves, there is quite a bit of
forecast uncertainty, more than would be expected at this lead
time. The best chance for showers will be for areas along and
south of I-90, although some sources of guidance suggest showers
could make it much further north. Chances for showers continue
through Thursday night and into Friday, with a secondary surface
low potentially tracking towards our region Friday. Will attempt
to refine the timing and amount of precipitation over the
coming days with guidance hopefully coming into better
agreement. Daytime highs Thursday and Friday will be much
cooler than the previous few days, with overnight lows in the
40s to around 50 Thursday night. Severe weather is not expected
during the Thursday through Friday timeframe.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The extended forecast continues to feature wet and unsettled weather
into the weekend.  A sfc cyclone and its occluded front will
continue to bring periods of rain to forecast area on Friday.  The
500 hPa low closes off over southeast Ontario and the Great Lakes
Region, as the longwave trough remains positively tilted.  Damp and
cool conditions prevail with max temps running about 10 degrees
below normal with mid 40s to lower 50s over the the higher terrain
and mid and upper 50s in the valleys.  The mid and upper level low
remains near or over eastern NY and New England Friday night into
Saturday.  The rain tapers to scattered showers Fri night. Some
intervals of dry weather are possible on Saturday.  However, the
upstream long wave trough amplifies, as a sfc trough rotates around
the cyclone near Nova Scotia.  We can not rule out a chance of
showers based on the latest medium range and ensemble guidance. Lows
will be chilly with upper 30s to mid 40s over the forecast area
Friday night.  Highs on Saturday with abundant clouds and the chance
of showers will be in the 50s to lower 60s.  Some upper 40s can not
be ruled out over the southern Dacks and southern Greens. Isolated
to scattered showers will continue Saturday night with lows in the
mid 30s to mid 40s.

The 2nd half of the weekend features more inclement weather with a
mid level trough over the Northeast, Ohio Valley and mid Atlantic
States.  A low pressure system and an occluded front will bring some
showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday
evening.  Temps will continue to run below normal with 50s to lower
60s for highs.  The good news is that the trough begins to lift out
of the forecast area Sunday night into Monday with some ridging
trying to build in from the south Monday afternoon.  Isolated to
scattered showers can not be ruled out, but some sunshine may be
mixed with clouds with temps trending to normal mid May readings.
The latest Day 8-14 Outlook for 14-20 May 2024 from CPC is
forecasting near normal temps with precipitation slightly above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions for KALB/KPSF/KGFL/KPOU until 08Z-10Z  Wednesday as
high pressure will be in control.  Some showers/rain will move in
ahead of a warm front and a mid level disturbance with MVFR/VFR
visibilities and VFR ceilings. by around 15Z, the coverage of
showers will decrease to scattered, so including VCSH at all TAF
sites but ceilings will lower to MVFR and borderline IFR as a warm
front approaches.

The winds will be northeast to northwest at less than 10 Kt through
the afternoon...and become light to calm by this evening and persist
at varying directions at 5 KT or less overnight. Winds become south
to southeast at less than 6 Kt Wednesday morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main
NEAR TERM...Main
SHORT TERM...Main
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...NAS