Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 232013
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
413 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will allow for clear skies tonight, and sunny and
pleasant weather tomorrow, with warmer temperatures returning
for Friday into the holiday weekend. Some showers and
thunderstorms are possible for the weekend as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly clear skies are expected through Thursday as high
pressure builds across the region. Lows tonight will be in the
upper 30s to mid 50s with highs on Thursday in the mid 60s to
mid 70s. Winds will generally be north to northwest at 5 to 10
mph tonight and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will shift offshore Thursday night, resulting in
increasing low level moisture and warmer temperatures on Friday
as return flow sets up.

Temperatures Thursday night will cool into the low to mid 50s
before warming into the mid 80s (but upper 70s in the high
terrain) by Friday afternoon. Friday will remain dry and
unseasonably warm with increasing clouds late as the next upper
level shortwave enters the Great Lakes region. This shortwave
will interact with a frontal boundary in place across northern
NY and bring increasing rain chances to the northern periphery
of our forecast area, mainly the Adirondacks, starting Friday
night. Temperatures will remain warm and muggy with overnight
lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

The upper level shortwave will move closer to the region on
Saturday, bringing increasing rain and thunderstorm chances by
the afternoon. The best forcing for thunderstorms looks like it
will still be west of the region but cannot rule out an isolated
rumble of thunder or two. Afternoon highs will once again be
warm and muggy with temperatures rising into the upper 70s to
upper 80s. Some spots in the mid- Hudson valley could even reach
the 90 degree mark but this will also be dependent on cloud
cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The risk of showers and thunderstorms increases during the early
part of the period as high pressure out over the Atlantic begins
pumping a moist southerly flow onto the eastern coastal areas.
Chances for precipitation will be greatest on Sunday.  A cold front
will slide south through our forecast area on Saturday, resulting in
a cooler Sunday; so although atmpospheric moisture will be greater,
instability will be even more limited than on Saturday.  Warmer
temperatures will return for Tuesday, but another cold front will
introduce a dome of high pressure from Ontario to the Great Lakes,
mid-Atlantic and New England by mid-week without a great deal of
shower potential.

Nightly low temperatures will average from the mid 50s to lower 60s,
but clear skies and radiational cooling will bring in temperatures a
few degrees cooler Tuesday night.  Sunday highs will range from the
mid 60s to upper 70s, with slightly cooler readings for Monday.
Thereafter, a slight warming trend will ensue, and highs on
Wednesday will range from around 70 degrees in the high peaks...to
around 80 degrees in the valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly SKC conditions are expected at the TAF sites through the
end of the TAF period ending at 18Z Thursday.

Winds will be north to northwest at 5 to 15 kts this afternoon
and then become lighter at 4 to 6 kts this evening and remain
at these levels through Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather is expected over the next few days. After a
recovery tonight, RH values will fall once again on Thursday,
with values as low as 25 to 40 percent in the afternoon hours.
Northwest winds will be 5 to 10 mph on Thursday. The next chance
of rain will be over the holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are anticipated over the next few days.

Dry weather is expected to continue for Thursday and Friday
with high pressure in control. As a result, rivers, streams,
lakes, ponds, reservoirs, brooks, creeks and kills will remain
fairly steady over the next few days.

Our next chance for scattered showers and possible thunderstorms
will be over the holiday weekend. Rainfall amounts will be
highly variable.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...Frugis/JVM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis/JVM
HYDROLOGY...Frugis/JVM


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