Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 191017
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
317 AM PDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A weak weather system skirting southward across the
southern coastal waters could produce a few showers during the
morning. A warming trend and dry weather conditions are by Friday
and through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 3:17 AM PDT Thursday...The system moving
south along the coast is rapidly weakening as it moves south. So
far the only bucket tips have been in Big Sur with a few stations
reporting 0.04 of an inch over the past several hours.
Temperatures are also cold in the Santa Lucias...28 degrees at
Chews Ridge...so there could be a few snow flurries at higher
elevations in Big Sur for the next couple of hours. Precipitation
will end this morning as the system moves south.

Dry conditions with slightly warmer temperatures are expected
today. High pressure building over the eastern Pacific by Friday
will bring warmer temperatures through the weekend. Highs over the
weekend are forecast to reach into the mid 80s across inland
areas by Sunday. Mild conditions to persist into next week.

Medium range models are still indicating a closed low moving into
California by the middle of next week. The location and track of
this low vary by model, so confidence is very low concerning one
solution over another. There could possibly be one more shot of
rain for the area, but right now it is not looking highly likely.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 10:43 PM PDT Wednesday...For 06z tafs. Looks
like circulation around the offshore low is bringing drier air
into the Bay Area terminals. Latest trends suggest vfr overnight
into Thursday morning. Winds should be light with high pressure
building and no marine layer in the wake of the weak front.

Vicinity of KSFO...Mainly just some mid and high clouds around
overnight. Some concern that a low cloud could set up inside the
bay by morning but right now trends are looking positive for vfr
conditions to start the day Thursday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Rain band is just west of kmry terminal
but dissipating and dropping due south towards Big Sur. Some
concern for some lingering low clouds early but mainly forecasting
vfr conditions to get things started Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...as of 9:08 PM PDT Wednesday...A weak system will pass
through the southern waters overnight. Winds will increase behind
the cold front and become northwest by Thursday morning. Strong
and gusty northwest winds will then continue the rest of the week
and into the weekend over a moderate nw swell with fresh seas
building off Cape Mendocino.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...SCA...Mry Bay from 9 AM
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm from 9 AM
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm from 9 AM
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm from 9 AM
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm from 9 AM
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: Sims
AVIATION: RWW
MARINE: RWW

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