Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 251552

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1052 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Issued at 1050 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Updated the forecast to remove the patchy fog east of I-57 this
morning. Also increased wind speeds a bit higher into midday and
adjusted sky cover.

An upper level trof over eastern lower MI and extending to 561 dm
500 mb low along the central VA/NC border, will push into the
eastern Great Lakes this evening. This will keep low stratocumulus
clouds east of IL today. Meanwhile another 561 dm 500 mb low over
central Kansas late this morning, will track southeast into
central AR by midnight tonight. This feature is spreading mainly
mid/high clouds eastward into central IL during this morning. Its
light rain showers should stay sw of our CWA through this evening,
but will see more clouds move into areas mainly south of I-74 into
early afternoon, then gradually shift southward during late
afternoon and evening. So areas along and north of I-74 to see
more sunshine today. Temps currently in the mid 50s over central
IL and upper 50s/lower 60s in southeast IL, to climb into the low
to mid 60s for highs this afternoon.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018
Weak boundary across Central IL with some higher dewpoints pooling
ahead of it resulting in some morning fog. Only a couple places
dropping to a quarter of a mile, most in the 2-5sm range. Putting
in a mention for the next few hours, allowing for some patchy
dense fog spots across IL where yesterday afternoons clouds may
have lingered long enough to preclude a more substantial mixing
out of the llvl moisture.

As one low moves out to the eastern portion of the CONUS, the
kicker is moving into the Central Plains. Weak radar returns associated
with the low are reaching as far as north central MO but not yet
resulting in many obs carrying precip. Any precip that is reaching
the ground is expected to progress to the south/southeast, missing
Central IL altogether. The forecast today is mild, dry after the
fog clears this morning, but the clouds may be slow to clear with
another upper low providing cyclonic flow aloft, particularly over
the southern half of the CWA. Tonight, the mild and dry weather
continues with lows dropping a little below seasonal norms, upper
30s/low 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

A more spring like forecast for the bulk of the 7 days. Forecast
enters a dry patch for Thursday as the prev wave dives into the
southeastern CONUS and leaves IL out of the precip. Temps on
Thursday climb back into the upper 60s with plenty of sunshine.
The warm up is cut short for Thurs night/Friday as a front moves
through the Midwest and an upper trof moves through the region.
However, this front is coming through in the overnight hours, with
minimal instability and a relatively dry column. The models have
become increasingly drier with the fropa, and the dry forecast
continues. The shift in the flow aloft to more NWrly pushes some
cooler temps into the area at least briefly for Friday. Forecast
remains dry through the weekend as another slow warming trend
kicks in. Expansive ridge at 500 mb setting up over the center of
the country this weekend, drifting into the Midwest by the
beginning of the work week. With the ridge drifting east, the more
southwesterly flow sets up some efficient waa, and temps will
likely climb to well above normal for Mon/Tues time frame should
this pattern continue, into the upper 70s/low 80s to start the
week. Until then, the weekend is looking like fair weather with
highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s, sunshine, and dry.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Areas of fog with MVFR or worse vsby will continue until 13Z from
KSPI-KDEC-KCMI southward. In addition, a band of low cloud cover
around 3000 ft AGL looks to affect KPIA-KBMI-KCMI for a few hours
until 13-15Z with brief MVFR cigs. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected through the upcoming 24 hours. Winds N-NE 10-15 kts
decreasing after 18Z and becoming light and variable to light
northeasterly overnight.





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