Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 160456

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1156 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Issued at 900 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Quiet weather is expected across central and southeast Illinois
overnight. Clouds will increase, as will wind speeds, as a system
approaches from the Plains. However, due to the dry air mass in
place, the rainfall with this approaching system will hold off
until the daytime hours of Friday. Going forecast was in pretty
good shape, with only some tweaks to hourly conditions needed at
this time.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018
This has been a messy forecast run with significant changes even
in the shorter term. A weak and narrow ridge over the Midwest
keeps the weather sunny and quiet today...and expected through the
overnight. Although previous runs have developed some precip along
a developing warm front feature ahead of the next storm system,
latest runs across the board slower with the progression of the
precip. As a result, forecast now dry through the overnight hours.
Lack of clouds to the NE allowing for a little more aggressive
radiational cooling/lower temps. Should be a pretty steep temp
gradient in the mins, as clouds increase before morning to the SW
and inhibit a quicker drop. Tomorrow, precip chances develop and
dominate the day as the first of two significant waves move out of
the west and into the Midwest. Precip should be in the form of
rain as long as rain holds off until after sunrise. Rain too early
will add the threat for some glazing in the morning commute.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018
Weak ridging aloft slides to the east as the first of two waves
ejects out of the SW and into the region without losing the parent
trough to the west.  Freezing rain comes back into the forecast
after midnight tomorrow night and into early Saturday as
temperatures reach their minimums...the low moves through the
region and exits to the east. Weak ridging moves back into place
through the remainder of the weekend. Temps Saturday will drop
into the 40s...but rebound to the 50s on Sunday with light NE
winds. Overnight Sunday into Monday...lows drop only to the low to
mid 40s as increasing clouds once again inhibit cooling in the
overnight hours. Next system for Monday/Monday night has begun to
track a little further south, which should result in less water
overall...but it will likely fall in the form of snow across
Central and southern half of the CWA, with the best chances to
see scattered light accumulations Tuesday morning in Central IL.
Models suggesting that this wave will shift us back to a busier
and more progressive northwesterly flow pattern aloft.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

VFR condtions will persist across the central Illinois terminals
well into Friday. However, clouds will thicken and lower with
time, and wind speeds will increase out of the east, as a system
approaches the area. Expect rain to develop in the late afternoon
to early evening time frame, with conditions degrading to MVFR.




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