Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 220844

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
344 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Weak upper disturbance tracking southeastward out of the Northern
Plains will generate enough lift to spread clouds and perhaps a
few light rain showers into portions of central Illinois today.
Based on the track of the wave, it appears the showers will be
confined to locations along/southwest of a Effingham line this afternoon. Elsewhere am
expecting dry weather through the balance of the day. High
temperatures will top out in the upper 40s and lower 50s. A few
showers will linger across the S/SE KILX into tonight before the
wave departs into the Ohio River Valley. Low temperatures will
bottom out in the lower to middle 30s.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Main weather concern in the extended is the potential for heavy
snow across the far N CWA Friday into Saturday morning. 00z Mar 23
models remain in very good agreement concerning the track of a
surface low from Kansas Friday evening into western Kentucky by
Saturday evening. Strong isentropic lift will develop along/north
of the low track, particularly on the 295k surface...with time-
height cross sections indicating the strongest deep-layer omega
occurring from 03z Sat through 15z Sat. Forecast soundings show
the precip initially in the form of rain late Friday afternoon
into early Friday evening, with precip mixing with and/or changing
to snow across the far north Friday night into Saturday morning.
It appears there will be a sharp southern cut-off to the
snow...with most of the significant accumulation taking place
along/north of a Hoopeston line. Much
of Stark, Marshall, and Woodford counties could potentially
receive in excess of 6 inches of heavy, wet will be
issuing a Winter Storm Watch for those counties. Further south,
mostly rain will occur with perhaps a brief change over to snow
Saturday afternoon/evening as colder air filters southward. May
even see a few thunderstorms overnight Friday night into Saturday
morning across the southern half of the CWA as MUCAPE values climb
over 100J/kg.

Once this system exits the region, a period of dry weather will be
on tap for Sunday into Monday before the next system spreads rain
back into the area Monday night through Tuesday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Mid
clouds around 10kft will not arrive til around noon, early in the
west and then later in the east. Clouds will gradually get lower,
reaching 6-7kft at most sites during the afternoon for PIA and
SPI, followed by early evening for BMI and DEC. CMI wont see lower
mid clouds til around end of TAF period. Precip should remain west
of SPI and main forecast only has slight chance of precip. So,
given this, will not be adding any precip/VCSH in for SPI during
the evening...but just lower mid clouds around 6kft.Winds will be
light through the 24hr period given the high pressure ridge over
the area. Wind direction will be variable at times or out of the


Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon
for ILZ028-030-031.



LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.