Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 150755

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
255 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Latest upper air data shows a rather amplified pattern over the
CONUS, with a deep trough over the east coast, a ridge over the
central part of the country with another upper level system coming
into the west coast states.

Today, as the upper level system continues to move into the west
coast states, the upper level ridge to our west will slowly slide
eastward toward our area. Meanwhile, we will also see decent warm
air advection as an 850mb ridge slides east into the area. We should
see a pretty good jump in highs today with readings generally in the
60s, with possibly a few 70 degree readings, mainly in western
parts of the CWA.

A chunk of energy will break off the southern portion of the upper
trough moving into the west coast today and move eastward tonight.
An upper level low will eventually develop over northwest KS or
southwest NE. The upper flow become southwesterly over western
portions of the area late tonight as this aforementioned system
moves east. Moisture really becomes plentiful by around 09Z-12Z Fri
in our far western areas, as this moisture overspreads the rest of
the area during the day on Friday. At the surface, a well developed
low associated with the upper system will move east across the NE/KS
border during the day on Friday. There will be plenty of lift
associated with this system that scattered rain showers will be
likely from west to east across the area on Friday. A few
thunderstorms will also be possible, mainly across SEMO in the
afternoon as instability increases. Timing of the precipitation will
need to fine tuned with time, but best chances Friday morning will
be in the west, with better chances shifting to the east by
afternoon. A boundary will pass through the area from north to south
tonight into Friday, leaving the area in a cooler northeasterly
flow. This northeasterly flow along with clouds and scattered rain
showers will make for a cooler day across the area.

Showers and scattered storms will likely continue into the evening
hours on Friday, but how quickly the precipitation departs is a bit
uncertain at this time, as models have differing solutions with this
system. There continues to be a limited chance for strong to severe
storms late Friday afternoon into the evening, mainly across far
southern MO/KY where better sfc based instability may set up along
with richer moisture and robust shear vectors in place.

The consensus is that drier air will filter in with a frontal
passage during the evening hours. After midnight, the best POPs will
be in eastern sections of the CWA. We will see the passage of the
upper level trough mainly across our northern and northeastern
sections on Saturday which may provide some lift for showers in the
Evansville Tri State region, mainly in the morning on Saturday,
before the entire system finally moves east of the area, allowing
for quiet conditions to return Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Yet another system will take aim on the area as early as late Sunday
afternoon and especially into the evening and overnight hours. Then,
the picture becomes increasingly messy with regards to how this
system will evolve with time. However, it will be unsettled from
Sunday afternoon at least through Tuesday, with multiple chances
for more precipitation. High pressure will then bring quieter
weather to the area by mid week.


Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Surface high pressure centered to our south will continue moving
east southeast allowing for southwesterly winds today. However, a
weak boundary to our north will slide southward today resulting
in a wind shift by later this afternoon/evening across our
northern terminals (KEVV/KOWB). Winds will become northeasterly by
evening in these areas but should remain southwesterly at
KCGI/KPAH. Mid clouds will be increasing during the daytime today
and scattered to broken bases will eventually become prevailing.



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