Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 122315

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
615 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Tonight, low clouds are likely to diminish as high pressure
continues dropping south into the Plains. The combination of
clearing skies and decreasing winds will result in a cold night.
Lows will range from the mid 20s over snow covered areas to around
30 where the ground is bare.

Tuesday will be very similar to today, with the center of the
surface high nosing down into the southern Plains. Stratocumulus
clouds once again increasing again, esp east areas, as an upper
low drops into the upper Ohio Valley. Temps will be hard pressed
to reach 40 once again where snow cover persists

Wednesday and Wednesday night will be mainly clear as high
pressure moves east across the lower Mississippi Valley and a
nearly stagnant mid/upper level omega pattern becomes established
near the continental divide. Highs will nudge closer to 50. As
southwest winds increase Wed night, lows will be in the lower to
mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon Mar 12

In the extended forecast period the deterministic medium range model
runs have been rather erratic recently, with the GFS being the most
stable and in general agreement with the ECMWF/GFS ensemble mean
solutions. The initialization blend seemed to be a reasonable
facsimile of the GFS deterministic solution, albeit with PoPs
somewhere in the PAH forecast area in every 12 hour period after the
daylight hours Thu. Reality will likely be better defined.

A quasi-stationary surface frontal boundary is progged to set up Thu
night across our region, adding to moisture convergence and lift as
a "backdoor" mid level shortwave sweeps through the region. This
should result in a decent likelihood of showers across most of the
region. Lightning might also occur in the MO Ozark Foothills.
Meanwhile, temp profiles suggest the possibility of some snowflakes
in the air north of I-64. As time goes on Fri and Sat, PoPs should
decrease, in general, from the northeast as much drier air filters
in behind a "backdoor" surface front.

PoPs should ramp up again by Sat night and Sun as the aforementioned
front moves northward, and a moist west-southwesterly low level jet
gets established. Isolated tstms may develop during the latter half
of the weekend in the southern half of the region.

As a closed, stacked low moves eastward out of the central or
northern Plains Sun night/Mon, it is anybody`s guess what will
happen as far as pcpn. It appears a surface cold fropa may occur
just outside Day 7 (Mon).

After a cool Fri, with highs mostly in the 50s, high temps are
expected to rebound into the 60s by Day 7, with some indications of
70s possible. As with the rest of the forecast, this is subject to


Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Advective and diurnally based cold air cumulus will continue to
dissipate with the loss of insolation this evening. This will
quickly translate to VFR category cloud bases (mainly unrestricted
Cirrus level clouds) with a return to diurnal low-mid level
VFR cloud cover by midday, mainly for KEVV and KOWB. There may be
some visibility restriction near KEVV/KOWB during the early
evening due to elevated boundary layer relative humidity due to
the melting snow cover today. However, have kept visibility`s
near seven (7) statute miles or above.




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