Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 241148
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
648 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 648 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Have increased POPs this morning over that part of southeast MO,
mainly SW of a line from Van Buren to New Madrid in response to
shower/thunderstorm activity moving northeast through Arkansas.
Expect the northeastward progression/development of this to
eventually decrease but expect more development this afternoon as
the 500mb short wave interacts with the destabilizing atmosphere.

Amended aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday Night
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

After a respite from showers/thunderstorms through much of this
morning, we will see thunderstorms increase by afternoon, beginning
across southeast MO and working eastward, as a pronounced 500mb
short wave progresses east across the Mid Mississippi Valley. A
nearly stationary boundary bi-secting the region will also provide
some focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon through
Monday as it tries to lift NE and leaves us in the warm sector. Thus
will maintain solid chance to likely POPS across the FA beginning
today across the SW 2/3 of the FA and across all the FA tonight and
Monday except for lesser to no POPS toward the MO Ozark Foothills
for Monday.

There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms today/tonight as the
atmosphere undergoes its diurnal destabilization, peaking around
1500- 2000 J/kg MLCAPE across the southern 2/3 of the FA late this
afternoon/early this evening. The other concern is heavy rainfall
potential with 1 to 2 inches plus forecast through Monday
morning.

Some upper ridging takes place by Monday night and most of the FA
will see a break from the thunderstorms Monday night through Tuesday
night. The main rain chance Monday night through Tuesday night will
be in the N/NE counties in closer proximity to a nearly vertically
stacked closed shortwave low moving toward the Great Lakes region.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

On Wednesday, we will be seeing what looks to be the last in a
series of upper level disturbances to move through the area. This
feature has been rather consistent for the past few days but the
wave is not that strong but deeper moisture will be available. Will
maintain the chance type POPs for now, suggesting scattered storms.

Upper level heights will be rising Wednesday night into Thursday.
Models continue to suggest convection possible in our eastern
sections on the eastern edge of the upper high. Decent moisture
exists to support this and therefore, will continue to highlight the
eastern half of the CWA for precipitation chances, mainly for
Thursday afternoon but could see activity lingering into the evening
if it does indeed develop.

The area appears fairly dry on Friday as upper level high pressure
dominates, although the center of the upper high does look like it
will be shifting east with time. Isolated convection cannot be ruled
out however with the amount of moisture in place and not a very
strong cap. Moisture returning on the back side of the departing
upper high may be enough to warrant some storms as we head into the
day on Saturday. With no real forcing though, will cap off chances
to isolated.

It will be very warm from mid to late week with highs in the lower
90s. We may very well see readings in the mid 90s across parts of
the area especially on Thursday and Friday when the upper high
becomes more established over the region. Heat indices will likely
be in the 100 to 105 degree range for at least the first part of the
extended forecast, with many locations possibly looking at heat
indices above 105 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 648 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Storms associated with the eastward progressing 500mb short were
over NE AR and SW MO this morning and extending ESE into west TN.
Still expect the main thrust of thunderstorms to move into southeast
MO this afternoon, although expect some storms near the AR border
this morning, but do not expect these to make it to KCGI or KPAH.
Therefore bring main round of storms through KCGI beginning at
00Z and at 01Z for KPAH with vicinity showers just prior to those
times. May need to adjust times earlier depending on progression
of the MCS moving into AR. Will keep VCSH after 22Z at KEVV and
KOWB as the chance spreads northeast this afternoon and evening.
VFR conditions should largely prevail through the forecast period,
although a period of MVFR is possible this evening. Winds will
average southwest AOB 5 knots with gusts near thunderstorms.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RLS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...RLS


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