Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 171740

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1240 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Updated to catch up to the sunshine and warming over west Kentucky
and southern portions of southeast Missouri. Could see some 70
degree highs in portions of west Kentucky.

The other concern was to add in a 20-30% chance of showers and
thunderstorms east of the Pennyrile Parkway/I-69 corridor near the
front early this afternoon. Not sure if anything will develop
that far west, but some of the short range guidance does indicate
the possibility. The latest RAP indicates that surface-based CIN
has disappeared, but the SBCAPE is not even 500J/kg. The available
shear would support a rotating updraft, so an isolated severe
storms cannot be ruled out if one can get going.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Low pressure will be pulling off to the east today, dragging sfc
front through the region. Will leave small mention of pops/isold
thunder up in our far ne along the Wabash River early today, but
believe we are done with the rain chances until next system
arrives later Sunday into early next week. Cooler temperatures
will lag the frontal passage today, so should remain fairly mild
today despite possible lack of sunshine.

As mentioned, next low pressure system will not be far behind,
moving east into the cntrl/southern Plains by Monday. Will allow
from some light rain chances later Sunday afternoon, but the gist
of the event will come Monday into Monday evening as the upper
low basis`s close by.

Depending on the track of the system, enough higher surface dew
points in the mid 50s (and associated instability) may work its
way into our forecast area, especially MO Bootheel and southern
parts of wrn KY. Could be some isolated thunder farther north with
the upper low itself, but think biggest thunder chcs will remain
down close to the TN border. Severe risk is now looking to stay
farther south in TN and the Gulf states where more instability
will be available.

System will then exit by Tue, with temps turning to below normal
levels under extensive left over cloud cover and brisk north
winds. Will leave some small rain chances far east areas in case
the system is a little slower to exit, but should be dry day for
the most part.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Friday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

By 00Z Wednesday, the main upper trough will be east of the area
with another weaker upper wave upstream that will move across the
area during the evening hours. However, this wave does not appear to
be potent enough to bring us any precipitation but clouds will be
plentiful. By 12Z Wednesday, the area will be deeply entrenched in
strong northwest flow aloft and weak high pressure building in at
the surface. Models are indicating some weak ripples in this flow
both Wednesday into Thursday but there are no strong and consistent
enough signals to warrant POPs at this time. This northwest flow
will also act to keep temperatures down a bit, with highs on
Wednesday staying in the 40s for the most part (low 50s far west).

High pressure will start moving off to the east Thursday night and
warm air advection will begin picking up in its wake and continue
into the day on Friday. Temperatures will rebound on Thursday with
highs in the lower 50s. Precipitation could develop along with the
warm air advection process Thursday night, but more likely on
Friday. The operational GFS seems to be the quickest in bringing in
the precipitation but the GFS ensembles and ECMWF indicate better
chances on Friday/Friday night vs Thursday night. Lots of time for
models to sort out the timing on this system but the end of the week
does appear to be unsettled. Highs will creep even higher into the
50s for Friday as well.


Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

A cold front will push through the TAF sites by 20Z and the entire
area by 22Z. Northwest winds will gust 20-25kts behind it through
sunset, and west winds will gust ahead of it. A few thunderstorms
may develop just to the south or southeast of KOWB early this
afternoon, but not close enough to impact KOWB.

Broken MVFR ceilings will accompany the cold front at KEVV and
KOWB, but more scattered conditions are expected farther
southwest. A large area of MVFR and even IFR ceilings will
eventually spread east across KEVV and KOWB later this afternoon
and they will likely linger through the end of the period. Most
recent guidance drags the MVFR ceilings south with time such that
they may impact KCGI and KPAH overnight into Sunday morning.




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