Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 220813
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
313 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

A weak cold front will move through the area today. One more day
with a chance of convection on tap. Slightly higher chance PoPs west
KY, lowering to slim to no chances across parts of southeast MO into
southern IL. After today, high pressure will influence our weather
with the center moving across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. 500
mb ridging will strengthen across the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest and
Mississippi Valley. This will result in a dry forecast tonight
through Thursday night. Used a blend of CAMs and NAMNest for PoPs
today. Temps are a blend of MOS guidance and previous forecast
numbers. Above normal temps to continue. After today, little cloud
cover is forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

On Friday, ECMWF, GFS and the Canadian are in good agreement showing
some scattered convection possible over mainly west Kentucky.  After
Friday, model solutions vary greatly for the weekend.  All have a
low pressure system in the Gulf, but take it on very different
tracks.  GFS shows a weak low moving into central Florida on Sunday,
the Canadian moves a stronger low into the Florida panhandle Sunday
evening, and the ECMWF takes the low up the lower Mississippi valley
Sunday into Monday.  All solutions show scattered convection
possible through the weekend, due in part to the moist unstable air
mass that will be in place, but the ECMWF solution of course results
in more persistent and widespread convection.  In any case, isolated
to scattered convection seems a good bet through the weekend into
Monday, with the better chances during the daytime hours.  Hopefully
solutions will come into better agreement in the next couple of days
so we are able to fine tune the holiday weekend forecast.

One thing we are sure of is it will continue to be unseasonably warm
with both highs and lows running 7 to 10 degrees above normal
through the extended.  Dew points generally in the upper 60s will
make it feel 4 to 5 degrees warmer than air temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Some MVFR light fog, possibly local IFR vsbys possible through
daybreak. Otherwise variable clouds (VFR conditions) with light
shifting winds as a weak front moves through. Scattered showers
and storms mainly southeast of a KAJG, KCGI, KPOF line later this
morning through the end of the day.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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