879
FXUS63 KPAH 251106
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
606 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through Friday for daily
  peak heat index values of 100 to 106. The prolonged heat wave
  may continue into the weekend for portions of the Quad State.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected each
  afternoon and will provide some localized relief from the
  heat wave. Locally torrential downpours, lightning, and some
  gusty winds will be possible.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase over the
  weekend and into Monday, especially over the Evansville Tri
  State. Torrential downpours, lightning, and some gusty winds
  will be possible.

- The heat wave will abate Tuesday, when the entire region will
  see high temperatures below 90 and maximum heat indices below
  100.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

The latest guidance remains in agreement that the 594+DM 500mb
ridge extending from the Ozarks through the mid-Atlantic will
continue to weaken heading toward and through the weekend.
However, it will continue to exert influence over the Quad
State through that period. No changes are planned to the Heat
Advisory which is in effect through Friday. We certainly could
see the need to extend it over portions of the region,
especially southeast Missouri, through the weekend. However,
that call will be best to make on Friday, as we get a better
look at convective trends through the weekend. In the absence of
convection, heat indices will continue to climb to 100 or a
little above Saturday and Sunday.

Unfortunately, there is no sign of a cold front to break the
heat wave until Monday night at the earliest. In the meantime,
the lack of any significant surface boundary means that
convection will continue to be diurnally driven through at least
Friday. Guidance indicates deeper mixing over southeast Missouri
Thursday and especially Friday, which could limit the western
extent of diurnal convection each of those days.

Water vapor satellite imagery reveals very dry mid-level air
over west Kentucky early this morning, with less dry air
farther northwest across the area. Convection this afternoon
should struggle in that drier airmass over west Kentucky.
Therefore we did not make much change to the PoP forecast for
today which already emphasized southeast Missouri, southern
Illinois, and southwest Indiana. However, we did leave a minimal
PoP over west Kentucky.

With continued very weak wind fields, convection will generally
be short-lived with development bouncing around on outflows.
Torrential rains and lightning can be expected with all heavier
showers and any thunderstorms. A stray storm or two could
produce some gusty winds, especially in the drier mid-level air
mass over west Kentucky.

There is some signal in the 00Z guidance for a weak upper
disturbance to move through the Great Lakes Friday night into
Saturday. There could be enough forcing to keep some convection
going Friday night into Saturday morning along the I-64 corridor.
This could limit diurnal convection Saturday over the Tri State
area. In its wake, weak ridging aloft may limit the coverage of
diurnal convection across the Quad State Sunday.

Finally, a stronger upper trough will move through the Great
Lakes Monday night into Tuesday, and that should push a cold
front through the Quad State. This will lead to increased
coverage of convection from Monday until the front passes
southeast of the region. Torrential rain and lightning will be
the primary concerns near and ahead of the front.

Assuming that the cold front makes it through the entire Quad
State by Tuesday afternoon, we should see highs in the 80s which
would be the first time since last Thursday or Friday. Of
course, if the front doesn`t make it through the region, showers
and thunderstorms will likely continue.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 606 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

This morning`s fog should lift by 12Z. Some cu will develop by
late morning, and more isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA are
expected across the region this afternoon. It looks like there
will be slightly more wind overnight than we had this morning,
so fog should be more limited in coverage. Still mentioned MVFR
fog at KMVN since it has seen the lowest conditions the last
few nights.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Friday for INZ081-082-
     085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS