Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 130835

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
335 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Powerful storm system over the northeastern states will circulate
cold dry air southeastward across our region through Wednesday.
Beyond Wednesday, the system will ease off to the northeast. This
will result in moderating temperatures for Thursday and Thursday
night. A backdoor cold front will slip south into the lower Ohio
Valley and southeast Missouri late Thursday night, resulting in
scattered to numerous showers.

As for the details of our weather today, there is not much
difference from Monday. There should be somewhat less cloudiness
today, especially west of the Mississippi River. However, a 500 mb
impulse rotating southward across Illinois and Indiana this
afternoon will bring widespread clouds to the lower Wabash Valley
and sw Indiana. Some flurries or sprinkles will even be added for
the EVV tri-state region given steep lapse rates and plenty of
low-level moisture. Highs will range from near 40 in sw Indiana
to near 50 in the Ozark foothills.

Skies will clear out early tonight. The surface pressure gradient
may actually tighten up a bit in the wake of the passing shortwave
tonight. Therefore, winds are likely to stay up enough to affect
temps. Forecast lows will be kept mostly in the mid 20s, but some
upper teens or lower 20s could not be ruled out where the ground
is snow-covered in se Illinois/nw Kentucky/sw Indiana.

High pressure will pass across the lower Mississippi Valley on
Wednesday, bringing plenty of sunshine and decreasing winds. Highs
will moderate slightly given the abundant sunshine. Highs will
range from the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Southwest winds and plenty of clear sky will allow temps to reach
the lower and mid 60s in many areas Thursday. The exception is
where any lingering snow cover exists in nw Kentucky/se Illinois.
Highs there will be held in the mid and upper 50s.

Rain showers will develop Thursday night as the backdoor cold
front slips south into west Kentucky and se Missouri. Lows will be
around 40.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Friday through Monday will be an unsettled period. The tendency
for upper-level troughing over the Northeast will persist through
the period. However, the pattern will be much less amplified and
more progressive, resulting in a series of weak low pressure
systems marching across the mid section of the nation. The models
have gradually been trending further south with the tracks of
these lows. This is reflected in the gradual lowering of forecast

The first weak low pressure system will track near or south of the
lower Ohio Valley on Friday night/Saturday. Numerous showers will
occur on Friday and Friday night ahead of the low and north of a
warm front. Far to the north of the warm front, some wintry
precip cannot be ruled out late Friday night over the EVV tri-
state region. Temps aloft look considerably warmer than the last
system, and boundary layer temps will also be very marginal.
Therefore, any wintry precip would likely be a mix. Saturday will
be mainly dry as the low pressure system weakens and exits to our

Saturday night and Sunday looks mainly dry at this time. A weak
ridge both at the surface and aloft will traverse our region from
west to east.

Another weak low pressure system will approach from the west or
northwest on Sunday night and Monday. Precip chances will increase
as this system arrives. The models indicate the track may be far
enough south to keep the unstable warm sector south of our region.
Therefore, thunder will not be mentioned at this time.

Temps will depend on the tracks of the low pressure systems, which
vary considerably among the models. With the front near or over
our region for much of the long-term period, a strong north-south
temperature gradient is forecast on some days. Highs should be in
the 40s and 50s Friday, 50s on Saturday, and mid 50s to mid 60s
Sunday and Monday.


Issued at 1151 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

VFR conditions will dominate the 06z Tuesday WFO PAH TAF issuance.
Surface trough and wind shift will take place overnight with high
pressure building in through the period. The western edge of an
upper low in the Ohio Valley will bring some 7-11kft agl broken
ceilings to KEVV and KOWB during the afternoon and evening, before
moving east of the TAF locations.




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