Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 161910

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
210 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

The surface warm front is poised just to the south/west of the FA,
starting to nub into/across the southern SEMO border. Dew points
there are pooling in the mid-upr 50s, in the warm sector, with
gusts into/thru the teens mph accompanying the boundary and its
passage. Still dry 20s dew points hold over our north/east with
drier easterlies prevailing there.

Model soundings show a strong inversion below 10K feet,
effectively capping our rain chances this pm. This is assisted by
teleconnected height rises aloft, in response to the parent Low
pinwheelintg its way toward us from the Plains. We do see some
warm sector elevated/insentropic lift to our south, around MEM,
but this area is staying firmly south of us. Short res models
suggest that should continue to be the case for most of the rest
of the pm.

Things change tonight as the Low moves into Missouri, and the
surface warm front is ultimately drawn northward into/across our
area. The ridge is shunted east and the modeled soundings show
the inversion breaks down, allowing the ample warm/moist advection
to begin to precipitate. Thunder chances are minor, as we see the
back off on the swody1 with gen risk only. It looks to be mainly
with the lift of the warm front as an assisted lifting force, so
from about 00z-09z is the convective (slight) chance mention.
Storm total qpf looks to stay below 1/2 inch for the event, maybe
at 1/4 inch or less for most of us.

Most of the pcpn chance is with the warm front tonight. A
lingering pop in our north/east is carried tmrw, until the Low
itself passes with the trailing cold fropa. It`ll be slightly
cooler/drier behind the front for Sunday, but still seasonal.
Pcpn chances return quickly Sunday night, as the upper flow backs
on the other side of the east ward departing ridge.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Forecast confidence is rather high in the larger-scale features
through the extended portion of this forecast.

The latest GFS, ECMWF, and GEM all bring a potent storm system
eastward across our region Monday. It will be a wet day, with at the
least, elevated showers and thunderstorms. The exact path of the
system will determine whether surface-based instability will develop
and bring the potential for severe storms. The deep-layer wind shear
will be impressive, so with any tangible surface-based instability,
supercellular structures will be possible. However, the strong
forcing may result in more linear structures, if the boundaries are
well-defined. The system will be nearly occluded, so the surface
boundaries may not be so well defined. At this point, Monday is
certainly worth monitoring closely for severe weather potential.

The Monday system will move by fairly quickly, but more energy will
dive south behind it and carve out a larger-scale trough, which may
keep the area wet into Wednesday. This trough is expected to push
east of the area later Wednesday into Thursday, as surface high
pressure settles overhead.

There definitely will be a good chance of a light freeze in the
north Tuesday night, and over most of the area Wednesday night. The
growing season is trying to get going across the region, but has not
reached the point where we will begin issuing Frost and Freeze
products just yet.

The surface high will slip east of the area next Friday, and some
warm advection precipitation will be possible Friday or Friday

Temperatures will start out near normal levels Monday and then dip
well below normal Tuesday and Wednesday. We will begin to climb back
toward normal Thursday and Friday.


Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

MVFR bases are associated with a warm front, which will lift
northward tonight. It will bring restricted cigs, as well as a
good chance of pcpn. This should be largely vicinity showers
(perhaps a thunderstorm KCGI/KPAH), with a brief period of higher
pop rain/restricted mvfr vsbys during the 3 to 4 hour window of
the front`s passage. After warm sectoring, winds will veer to the
south, and may maintain some gustiness into the day tmrw, til the
Low pressure/trailing cold front makes passage. Time/height cross
sections suggest ample moisture in the profile into the day tmrw,
but a return to VFR cigs/vsbys is anticipated.



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