622
FXUS63 KPAH 300351
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1051 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected through
  Monday. Heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds will be
  possible.

- A drier trend continues for Independence Day with seasonal
  highs in the upper 80`s to lower 90`s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Lower heights extend across the northern tier of the US this
afternoon with an upper level disturbance to the northwest.
A few showers and storms have resulted and will continue into
the evening hours. PW`s remain very high with values over 2
inches and will result in periods of heavy rainfall and isolated
flash flooding. A few isolated or scattered showers/storms may
continue into the night as low level waa remains atop the
region. Amplification of a northern stream trough occurs across
the Midwest on Monday. This will send a cold front through the
region Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Increasing wind
fields aloft may lead to a strong to severe risk with any
thunderstorm complex with damaging winds the primary hazard.
Once again, localized flash flooding will be possible.

We finally see some drier weather behind the front Tuesday.
Guidance continues to show the rest of this week dry as upper
level ridging builds across the region. Toward the end of the
forecast period, another trough moves into the plains and begins
to bring low-end PoPs into portions of the area. Temperatures
in the upper 80`s early to mid week will rise into the low to
mid 90`s by the end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible at any
time throughout this TAF issuance with brief reductions to MVFR
or possibly lower visibilities in heavier precipitation.
Otherwise, the better chance of more widespread organized shower
and thunderstorm activity will be Monday afternoon into Monday
evening as a cold front approaches/moves through the area from
west to east.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...KC