315
FXUS63 KPAH 260745
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
245 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Models show a surface low in northern Mississippi this morning
moving into northern Georgia/southeast Tennessee by 00z Friday.
Ongoing showers in portions of southwest Illinois into southeast
Missouri should fizzle out in the next few hours. Widespread
showers in northeast Arkansas and west Tennessee will be spreading
north into southern portions of the PAH forecast area through the
morning hours as the surface low moves south of our region. Any
remaining showers will be focused in west Kentucky by this
afternoon, tapering off from west to east by 00z. Dry conditions
are expected tonight. Cloud cover should keep us a few degrees
cooler today than yesterday, and readings tonight into Friday will
be near to just below seasonal normals.

Models take a weak cold front across the middle Mississippi/lower
Ohio valleys during the day Friday. GFS generates some light QPF
with its passage, while both the ECMWF and Canadian take it across
our region dry. Prefer the drier solutions. Models then take yet
another cold front across the area Friday night, and all of them
take this front through dry.  Behind this front we will see a
little more cool air make it into the region, with highs on
Saturday 5 to 8 degrees below normal.  High pressure will be
building southward Saturday, and by Saturday night we should have
clear skies and very light winds. Low temperatures will drop into
the upper 30s north to lower 40s south, and patchy frost is not
out of the question along and north of the I-64 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Expect dry conditions with a warming trend early next week, then
increasing rain chances mid week.

The models have trended further southwest with the Canadian surface
high this weekend. Instead of placing the high pressure center over
the Great Lakes region as they did a couple days ago, the models now
takes the high across the lower Ohio Valley on Sunday. This will
result in cooler temps than earlier forecast. Highs Sunday are now
forecast to average in the mid 60s under sunny skies. Winds will be
light.

Early next week, a 500 mb ridge will move east across the lower Ohio
Valley to the Appalachians. The surface high will move to the
southeast Atlantic coast. Mainly clear skies are expected Monday
through Tuesday, along with increasing southwest winds. Highs will
be in the 70s on Monday, and near 80 on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, precip may start to edge into our region ahead of a
500 mb trough over the western high Plains. The 00z gfs and gfs
ensemble mean depict some light qpf over our region Wednesday. The
00z ecmwf keeps our region dry. The drier solution seems to make
more sense, given that neither model indicates any 500 mb height
falls through Wednesday. Low-level forcing associated with the front
will be over the central Plains. Any precip would be associated with
weak impulses moving northeast ahead of the high Plains trough.
Forecast pops will be in the chance category. There will be enough
instability to keep thunder in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

The majority of recent guidance is trending farther southwest and
south with tangible precipitation and MVFR ceilings associated
with the upper low moving through Arkansas and into Tennessee
overnight into Thursday. Therefore, have gone on the optimistic
side and kept KCGI and KPAH VFR with just a VCSH. KCGI would be
the most likely to see a period of MVFR ceilings, but confidence
is too low to mention it at this time. KEVV and KOWB being farther
from the upper low will remain firmly in VFR territory throughout
this forecast cycle.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DRS