Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 161120

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
620 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Updated for 12Z aviation forecast discussion.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Latest surface analysis indicated a surface low in northwestern KS
with a nearly stationary boundary stretched out across southern MO
into southern IL and central KY. This boundary will continue to sink
south today which will mean a cooler northeasterly flow will set up
across the area. This cooler flow along with increasing cloudiness
will mean much lower high temps today as compared to yesterday.
Radar indicates light rain moving into northwest AR and southwest MO
slowly moving northeasterly toward the area.

As this low moves east this morning across Kansas, we will see
moisture increase across our area. Short term models such as the
NAM, HRRR, and RAP do not indicate much in the way of precipitation
this morning and even model data which suggests some rainfall, does
not indicate much. Given latest radar trends, best POPs will be west
tapering off to low POPs east for this morning. As we head into the
afternoon, parts of southeast MO appear to be the best bet for
additional development. However, better chances for convection
appear to be this evening, as the sfc low moves into central MO and
better upper level support arrives. The cold front associated with
this surface low will be knocking on our western doorstep by around
06Z Saturday and push through overnight, gradually ending
precipitation chances from west to east.

Severe potential late this afternoon/tonight: The aforementioned
boundary that will be just south of the area today, will eventually
lift back northward late today into tonight as the sfc low nears. As
this occurs, dewpoints will surge well into the 50s late this
afternoon and into this evening. Instability will definitely be
increasing across SEMO, southwest IL and western KY, with portions
of SEMO actually seeing some sfc based instability with LI`s nearing
negative values by this evening. Better instability surges north
somewhat during the overnight hours as well. This instability
combined with very good mid level lapse rates and plenty of wind
shear, will mean severe potential is possible, for southeast MO, far
southern IL and far west KY starting late this afternoon and
continuing into tonight. This will continued to be closely monitored
throughout the day. SPC continues with a marginal risk for SEMO and
far west KY.

On Saturday, the main upper level low/trough will slide southeast
across the northeastern sections of the CWA and bring chances for
additional shower activity to southeastern IL, southwestern IN and
adjacent parts of northern KY during the day. High pressure will
build into the area Saturday night into Sunday providing dry weather
for a while.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

We are still watching yet another system to take aim on the area
very late in the weekend and into early next week. There are still
some timing issues with the onset of the chance for precipitation.
Rain should overspread the area sometime Sunday night with better
chances on Monday as the actual low passes overhead. However, when
to end precipitation chances is much more questionable at this time.
We will maintain lower POPs for Tuesday and indicate a dry day on
Wednesday for now. This may change as models obtain a better handle
on this next system.


Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Mid to high clouds will continue increasing across the area this
morning. Some light shower activity is possible throughout the day
but the main time frame for organized convection will be 00Z-06Z.
During that time frame, cigs and vsbys have the best chances to
become MVFR or lower at times. The rain could be accompained by
scattered thunderstorms as well. The rain should push out of the
area between 06Z-08Z from west to east. However, MVFR cigs will
likely remain in place for the duration of the TAF period. Winds
will be easterly but then shift to southerly late in the
forecast especially for KCGI/KPAH.



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