Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
353 FXUS62 KMHX 091833 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 233 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Typical summertime conditions are expected today. This will be followed up by a series of upper level systems that will push across the area bringing unsettled weather through the rest of the work-week. A backdoor front approaches the area this weekend, keeping an active pattern in place. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 2 PM Wednesday... Key Messages - Scattered showers/tstorms through the evening - Weakening showers/tstorms approaching the region from the west early tomorrow morning. A convergence zone has lingered over ENC today, bringing scattered showers and weak thunderstorms through parts of the region. This convergence zone is expected to weaken, decreasing coverage as it slowly moves north and west. Rain chances do linger, especially inland, until around 8pm where we will likely get a brief reprieve in precip. Late tonight into early tomorrow morning, a MCS or cluster of storms will be moving through central NC, approaching ENC around daybreak. With a more stable environment over our CWA when the storms reach, expecting it to rapidly weaken as it approaches the coast. Machine learning probs of severe wx are 5-10%, but with the stable lower levels and the weakening trend, don`t expect it to be severe at this point. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... As of 215 PM Wednesday... Upper level troughing sets up as the ridge weakens, when paired with a moistening environment, sets the table for increased storm coverage tomorrow afternoon/evening. For this reason, elected to not deviate from NBM with this update. Locally heavy rainfall could result in minor flooding concerns, and gusty, sub-severe winds are possible with the strongest of storms. If the cluster of storms in the morning moves through, it is possible initiation of the afternoon convection is delayed or suppressed with subsidence and/or stable lower levels behind the initial morning convection possible. Increased cloud cover will keep highs a degree or two cooler than today, mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 0445 Wednesday...Overall, summertime pattern with SFC thermal trough inland and high anchored offshore. Upper levels have multiple troughs and/or closed lows streaming through Great Lakes and off the NE coast but at our latitude, ridging dominates offshore to the E and over WCONUS. A series of midlevel shortwave troughs will push across the region mid to late week continuing to keep the moisture influx off the Gulf at least somewhat tapped from midlevels downward across SECONUS. Typical diurnal PoP pattern unless a stronger storm cluster persists and drifts into the FA from further inland in the early overnight hours before dissipating. With high PW values, the greatest threat from the storms will be heavy rainfall. WPC currently has at least part of the FA in a marginal ERO for the remainder of the work week. Instability is what you would expect around this time of year, 2-4kJ/kg depending on what guidance you trust. Shear parameters do not look overly impressive given the departure from upper level jet(s) well to the N and offshore high expanding its effective area Ward at the end of the week. With that said, water loading of strongest updrafts could lead to some gustier wind potential should the bottom fall out of more vigorous cells. As such, SPC has parts of the FA in marginal threat for severe storms to develop. Coastal Plain is where the strongest instability and greatest convergence would line up. MaxTs in upper 80s, MinTs mid 70s. This weekend, a backdoor front slowly sags down the MidAtlantic coast but there are tons of model differences in how far and how quickly it will march Sward. This remains contingent on how much momentum gets transferred from the trough aloft exiting NECONUS and where midlevel shortwaves and potential MCSs line up. For now, keeping the backdoor front N of the area until early next week which will keep available moisture for diurnal summer time shower and tstorms in place through the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 18z Thursday/... As of 230 PM Wednesday... Key Messages - Scattered TSRA potential through the evening - Another round of convection possible tomorrow morning VFR conditions through the area outside of thunderstorms, where brief drops to MVFR are possible. Convection wanes as we get past sunset, with low stratus possibly setting in where highest rainfall totals were seen today (OAJ, EWN). As we get through tonight, convection from the west will move into the region and weaken, bringing chances for showers. While a thunderstorm can`t be ruled out tomorrow morning, I didn`t have enough confidence to add TS mentions at this point. Guidance is suggesting drops to IFR for the coastal plain, so I hit ISO and PGV the hardest with drops to IFR cigs for sunrise. Low stratus gradually dissipates tomorrow morning leading to another VFR late morning. Higher tstorm chances in place for tomorrow PM. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 0430 Wednesday...A series of mid-level systems will push across the region mid to late week continuing to bring the threat of showers and storms with reduced flight cats. Late night and early morning fog and stratus will also be possible most mornings for areas that see meaningful rainfall. Slow moving front sags down the NE coast late weekend/early week. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... As of 230 PM Wednesday..SWerly 10-15G20kt building to 15-20G25-30kt in late afternoon before beginning to ease after midnight, Seas less than ideal if green in smaller boats, 2-4ft SSWerly wind waves on top of weakening 1-2ft ESEerly longer period swell. SCAs still in place for coastal waters from Cape Lookout Nward, Pam/Cro/Roa sounds due to the 25-30kt gusts this afternoon to an hr or two either side of midnight. Tstorm chances are higher tomorrow compared to today along and ahead of the sea breeze, mainly impacting nearshore waters and inland sounds/rivers. LONG TERM /Thursday night through Sunday/... As of 0510 Wednesday...Expect similar to above through the end of the work week, but there may be a SLIGHT downward trend in what the winds will peak at in the afternoons and evenings as the offshore high builds Wward toward the coast FRI. Cold front slowly sags down NEcoast this weekend, but for now, keep it no further S than the NC/VA border until early next week. Therefore, see above. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ156. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ231. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RJ SHORT TERM...RJ LONG TERM...CEB AVIATION...CEB/RJ MARINE...CEB/RJ