Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 160816
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
316 AM CDT Wed May 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is high.

High pressure will remain over S WI today into tonight. A weak and
dry Canadian cold front will then arrive from 3-6 AM Thu. A dry
and warm airmass will prevail today with highs around 80F away
from Lake MI. Lows tnt in the 50s.

Thursday and Friday...Forecast confidence is high.

Surface high pressure will become established just north and
northeast of the Great Lakes, ridging into southern Wisconsin.
Expect dry and pleasant weather with warm temperatures. The
exception...a northeast then east wind will keep it cooler near
Lake Michigan. Lake Michigan water temps are still in the lower
40s to lower 50s. Temperatures will warm quickly farther inland.

Saturday and Sunday...Forecast confidence is medium.

A mid level short wave trough will lift northeast out of the
4-corners region of the southwest U.S...weakening as it pushes
into a short wave ridge in place over the area on Saturday. We
could stay dry across southern Wisconsin through the day on
Saturday, but can`t rule out some showers/storms reaching areas
west of Madison late in the afternoon. This activity should then
spread across southern Wisconsin Saturday night, lingering through
Sunday given the slow speed of the mid level wave and
accompanying surface trough.

At least the first half of the weekend looks decent. The surface
low does stay well south of Wisconsin so the heavier rainfall is
expected to stay west and south of the area. This would be good
news given the excessive rainfall we`ve seen thus far in May.

Monday through Wednesday...forecast confidence is high.

Ridging takes hold once again with the GFS/ECMWF showing dry and
pleasant for at least the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...Mostly clear skies, light winds, and VFR
conditions today and tonight.

&&

.MARINE...A lake breeze will occur late this morning through the
afternoon. A Canadian cold front will then bring nely winds
starting early Thu AM and lasting into Thu nt. Waves will build
to 2 to 4 feet Thu afternoon and night. At this time, a Small
Craft Advisory will not be needed.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Gehring
Thursday through Tuesday...Davis



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