Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 130217
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
917 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

.UPDATE...
(Issued 917 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020)

High pressure over Ontario into the Lower Great Lakes will
gradually move across se Canada into Friday. A warm and dry
airmass will remain over srn WI during this time on light ely
winds. There will be thin cirrus at times from passing shortwave
troughs or from convection to the west.

Gehring

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 343 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020)

Tonight and Thursday:

Pleasant and dry weather today is brought to you by an area of
high pressure barely moving eastward across the region. Could
maybe see a few high clouds creep into our western areas this
evening from the remnants of this morning`s MCS over southern MN,
but given the dry vertical profiles on model soundings, it will
likely not amount to much. Tonight should remain mostly clear as
high pressure dominates. Temps are expected to be a few degrees
warmer than last night with lows dipping into the up 50s to low
60s. Otherwise, these quiet and dry conditions are expected to
continue for Thursday as the surface high slides a bit further
east and mid-level ridge builds in overnight tonight.
Southeasterly flow will begin to increase and bring warmer temps
and dewpoints to southern WI with highs in the low to mid 80s.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 343 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020)

Thursday night through Wednesday:

Quiet and dry pattern continues for Friday under the influence of
the upper-level ridge. A bit warmer temps are expected as southerly
flow continues to increase across the region as the area of high
pressure pushes further east. Looking at daytime highs to climb into
the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.

However, expecting the ridge to shift east later on Friday as a
trough progresses across the Northern Plains. Models are in fairly
good agreement with the trough moving into the Upper Midwest early
part of the weekend and bringing a cold front across WI on Saturday.
The upper-level dynamics look to remain well north of the area,
but a few impulses of mid-level vorticity may eject out ahead of
the trough and combined with forcing from the cold front and
increased low-level moisture, will likely see some increased
shower activity across southern WI on Saturday. From the latest
models, there looks to be plenty of MLCAPE present to support
thunderstorms along the front, but with the lack of deep layer
shear not expecting much in the way of stronger convection at this
time.

Northwesterly flow is then expected develop in the wake of the
cold front on Sunday. Cooler air is progged to arrive later on
Sunday with a reinforcing front that is expected to push through
the area as another area of high pressure builds across the Upper
Midwest. These cooler and drier conditions will continue in the
start of next week with highs in the 70s.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 917 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020)

For the 06Z TAFs:

Other than some fog in the WI River Valley for Thu AM, VFR
conditions are expected for Thu-Thu nt.


Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 340 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020)

Quiet and dry conditions will continue as high pressure over Lake
MI slowly expands eastward through tomorrow with light and
variable winds expected over much of the lake. The high will
continue to slowly push eastward across the eastern Great Lakes
and southeastern Canada Friday and Saturday with east to
southeasterly winds increasing and then becoming more southerly
during most of this period. Then a cold front is expected to push
across the region this weekend bringing slight thunderstorm
chances on Saturday and a northerly wind shift by Sunday.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$



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