Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 130939
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
339 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

.SHORT TERM...

Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is High...

Temperatures will continue to hang in the low to mid teens early
this morning as clouds and increasing southerly winds will
prevent temperatures from falling. These southerly winds are
expected to increase through the day today with gusts from 25-30
mph expected.

Later this morning we will start to see an upper level shortwave
and associated surface low push into the region. This will be
associated with strong low and mid level WAA as well as fairly
decent moisture through much of the column however, there could be
some drier air that mixes. This would thus reduce chances for
precipitation, primarily for NW parts of the CWA this afternoon.
The temperature profile will be entirely below freezing so we
fully expect any precipitation to come as snow. Ultimately this
should bring around an inch of snow to the majority of southern
Wisconsin with some areas seeing up to 2 inches with the majority
of snow expected this evening. Snow will then push out during the
overnight period.

.LONG TERM...

Thursday through Tuesday...Forecast confidence is medium.

The latter half of the work week will be dry with some moderation
in temperatures expected. High pressure drops through the central
Plains and into the Mid-south Thu/Fri keeping winds out of the
W/NW. As skies clear on Thursday temps begin the climb back
towards the freezing for highs. By Friday temps in the mid 30s are
expected. Lows remain on the cool side with values in the teens.

Heading into the weekend a system moving across southern Canada
will bring a dry cold front into the area and then high pressure
filters into the Great Lakes Saturday morning. This ends up having
an impact as the drier air push into the region could limit the
amount of moisture available ahead of the next system. Guidance
has backed off a bit on a trough forecast to move through Sunday
into Monday as it becomes sheared out/elongated. This end up
resulting in weaker forcing as it passes through and we may end up
with a few light snow showers with little accumulations. The GFS
is even drier than the ECMWF and keeps all precip north of the
area. So, the forecast has trended a bit lower for PoPs this
weekend. Highs should end up in the mid to upper 30s for both
Sat/Sun with lows in the 20s.

We stay in a northwesterly flow pattern heading into next week
with multiple weak waves forecast to pass through. However, winds
during this period are more W/SW, which will help to continue to
moderate temps. Highs early next week end up in the upper 30s to
lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...

Winds will increase this morning from the south, with 20-25 knot
gusts expected from early morning through much of the day. Mid and
high clouds will will also be on the increase.

Light snow is expected to develop and push in from the west during
the afternoon hours, continuing into the evening. Amounts look to
be pretty light, generally around an inch, but periods of IFR
visibility will be possible at times. Ceilings will also likely
fall into MVFR territory.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds are expected to sharply increase this morning from the south
as a low pressure continues to push in. A Small Craft Advisory is
in effect from 11z through 3z as winds will remain gusty up to 25
kts along the nearshore with waves around 4 to 6 feet. In addition
these winds cause gales over the open waters, thus a Gale Warning
is in effect from 12z through 22z today. These winds will decrease
rapidly into the evening as the front passes through turning winds
to the northwest.

Winds will drift back to the west on Thursday and will likely
increase into the evening across the northern half of the lake as
a system passes through Ontario. Winds will weaken on Friday and
turn back to the north, then to the east and then the southeast
through Saturday.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning until 5 PM CST this afternoon for LMZ080-261-362-
     364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-
     876-878.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...ARK
Thursday through Tuesday...Stumpf


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