Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 231128 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
628 AM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
Primarily VFR conditions prevail and are expected to continue.
Lowered ceilings and patchy fog has resulted in MVFR/IFR
conditions for PIB/HBG early this morning. With daytime warming,
ceilings will lift resulting in prevailing VFR by mid-morning. An
increase clouds and isolated showers and storms will result in
occasional MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities for southern sites
through the day particularly during the afternoon/evening.
Ceilings will likely lower again early morning Thursday for
southern sites. /86/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight...A front has moved south of the area early
this morning but will begin a slow crawl back to the north as a
weak warm front this afternoon and evening. Aided by the frontal
boundary and daytime instability maximum, some chance will exist
for a few showers or brief thunderstorms roughly along and south
of I-20 late afternoon and evening. By tonight, some partial cloud
cover will likely stay in place but with waning diurnal heating
the rain chances will diminish. Temperatures today a bit warmer
than Tuesday, topping out in the upper 80s F to lower 90s F.
Tonight, increasing moisture will keep us a bit warmer than the
previous night, with lows dropping into the lower 70s F for most
and upper 60s F in the northeast. /86/

Thursday through next Tuesday...Northwest flow aloft will remain
across the CWA through the end of the work week. Meanwhile at the
surface, high pressure will wedge itself into the CWA from the
northeast.  A once stalled boundary south of the CWA lifting north
into southern portions of the CWA, will wash out over us on
Thursday. While the boundary will briefly aid as a focus for
convection, copious amounts of moisture will overtake the CWA
Thursday, and through the remainder of the forecast period.  This
will also result in better rain chances areawide through next week.

Flow aloft will become more southwesterly through the weekend into
next week.  High pressure at the surface will remain wedged into the
region from the northeast, keeping humid conditions across the CWA
into early next week. Increased troughing across the nation`s mid-
section Sunday through Tuesday, will result in a cold front sinking
southeast toward far northwest portions of the CWA Sunday.  As high
pressure strengthens along the East Coast, it`ll result in the
trough stalling its eastward advance, in addition to the aforementioned
front. Moisture continuing to pool over the CWA ahead of it, will
keep good chances for mainly afternoon and evening showers and
storms across the forecast area Sunday through Tuesday. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       89  72  92  73 /  18   6  42   7
Meridian      87  68  90  73 /  12   6  38   7
Vicksburg     90  73  93  75 /  20   4  31   8
Hattiesburg   87  72  90  73 /  52  28  54   8
Natchez       90  73  92  74 /  30  18  39   6
Greenville    88  71  92  76 /   2   1  19   6
Greenwood     89  70  92  74 /   2   1  29   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

86


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