Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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822
FXUS63 KARX 262353
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
653 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

A cold front was tracking southeast through the area this afternoon.
Front was pretty quiet with just an increase in some mid cloud/
virga along and ahead of it. Winds were picking up with the frontal
passage with northwest winds gusting in the 20 to 25 mph range.
Otherwise, temperatures across the area were in the upper 50s to the
middle 60s.

High pressure builds in tonight with mostly clear skies and lows
dropping into the 30s.

A rather potent area of low pressure drops southeast through WI
Friday for scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two.
Most of this activity looks to be confined northeast of I-94. Gusty
northwest winds will be seen with this system with gusts in the 30
to 40 mph range. Should see a rather sharp northeast to southwest
temperature gradient, ranging from the upper 40s to middle 50s
northeast of I-94 to the lower 60s southwest of I-94.

Cool Canadian high pressure builds in Friday night for clearing
skies and lows bottoming out in the upper 20s to the middle 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

High pressure overhead on Saturday will provide mostly sunny but
cooler than normal conditions. Look for temperatures to top off in
the upper 40s to the middle 50s with light north winds. Another
chilly night in store for Saturday night as lows drop into the
middle 20s to middle 30s.

High pressure drifts southeast of the area Sunday, setting up
increasing southerly flow into the region. Look for highs Sunday in
the lower/middle 60s under sunny skies.

Pattern shifts to southwest flow aloft for Monday through Thursday
and turns more active as far as shower and thunderstorm chances.

Increasing moisture transport into the area will produce increasing
cloud cover as well as a few showers and a slight chance of
thunderstorm chances later Sunday night into Monday. Otherwise,
warmer temperatures on tap with highs Monday expected to top off in
the middle 60s to the lower 70s.

Tuesday will see a better chance of showers and storms as a cold
front approaches from the Northern Plains. GFS shows 0-6km MUCAPE in
the 1000-2000J/kg range with 35-50kt of bulk shear. So, may have to
watch for a few stronger storms.

Temperatures cool some Wednesday into Thursday behind the cold
front.

May have to watch for some heavier rainfall potential Wednesday
night into Thursday as low pressure tracks northeast out of the
Central Plains toward the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

The main concern this forecast period will be shifting winds,
increasing in strength on Friday.

VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through the forecast
period. There will likely be periods of FEW to SCT cloud cover
with 5 to 10 kft bases. Northwest winds around 10 kt this evening
will gradually subside and turn to the southwest overnight. There
could still be a few gusts over 20 kt at KRST through 03Z this
evening. A low pressure system will then drop down from Canada
Friday morning. Winds will begin to pick up out of the west-
southwest from 12Z to 15Z. After 15Z, winds are forecast to
quickly shift to the northwest, strengthening to 15 to 20 kt by
18Z. Expect these winds to continue through the afternoon, with
peak gusts around 25 kt at KLSE and 30 to 35 kt at KRST.

There is a chance some SHRA could approach KLSE Friday afternoon,
but confidence is not high enough to include a mention in this
TAF issuance.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Some fire weather concern into the weekend.

Gusty northwest winds will subside going into this evening with RH
recoveries overnight expected to rebound into the 70 to 90 percent
range.

A fairly potent area of low pressure drops through eastern WI Friday
bringing with it some showers (mainly northeast of I-94) and gusty
winds. Look for gusts out of the northwest in the 30 to near 40 mph
range, highest gusts are expected along and west of the Mississippi
River as RH values drop into the 30-35 percent range.

Dry/cool high pressure settles in over the area Saturday with
minimum RH values expected to dip into the 20-30 percent range.
However, winds look pretty light through the day, generally out
of the north less than 10 to 15 mph.

Winds pick up out of the south Sunday on the backside of the area of
high pressure sliding into the Ohio River Valley area. Look for
south winds of 15 to 25 mph west of the Mississippi River and
generally 10 to 15 mph across Wisconsin. Minimum RH values are
expected to be in the 25 to 35 percent range.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Flood warnings continue in effect for portions of the Mississippi
River and the Yellow River at Necedah. Minor to possibly moderate
flooding is expected into the first week of May. See the latest
flood statements for more detailed information.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...Hollan
FIRE WEATHER...DAS
HYDROLOGY....DAS



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