774
FXUS63 KFGF 120407 CCA
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1107 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wildfire smoke will continue to degrade air quality behind a
  cold front today, remaining on and off into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Showers did develop west of the Red River Valley this evening
but those are diminishing with the incoming sunset. There will
be a brief reprieve from smoke

UPDATE
Issued at 644 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Showers will diminish after sunset as what limited low level
instability we have will decouple. Smoke will then be the main
weather impact through Saturday with precipitation chances
becoming limited.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...Synopsis...

Upper trough continues to wrap around the southeastern
Saskatchewan/southwestern Manitoba border and the cold front has
pushed through most of our CWA. Surface high pressure behind the
front for tonight, then another reinforcing shortwave digs down
tomorrow. Northwesterly flow aloft continues into Sunday with
another weak embedded shortwave coming down. Flow becomes more
zonal with a progressive trough moving along the Canadian border
late Monday into Tuesday. Some cooler than average temps coming
down on the backside of this system for next week. Another
shortwave rotating through Wednesday and Thursday, then
northwesterly flow again by Friday.

...Lingering showers and storms this afternoon...

Winds have shifted to the northwest across even our far
southeastern counties, although there is still some 1000 J/kg
lingering near the boundary. Satellite loops show the coldest
cloud tops have already moved east of our forecast area, but
some lingering convective towers still producing lightning and
heavy downpours. Will see thunderstorm chances for another hour
or two before the entire complex moves east. There has been some
shower and thunderstorm activity further northwest under the
upper low. However, by the time that feature reaches our
northern counties later tonight we will have lost daytime
heating. A few diminishing showers will be the main impacts this
overnight, perhaps intensifying again tomorrow afternoon near
Lake of the Woods if there is still enough cold air aloft to
work with.

...Smoke tonight into the weekend...

Smoke continues to reduce visibility to 1 to 2 miles in several
places, with a few spots down to less than half a mile
visibility for a short period. There has been some mild
improvement further back behind the cold front, with the Devils
Lake Purple Air sensor back into the green category after being
very unhealthy this morning. HRRR and Canadian models show a
period of improvement this afternoon and then additional smoke
arriving as the upper trough moves in tonight and tomorrow.
AQA continues for west central and northwestern Minnesota.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1008 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Smoke will continue to be the primary aviation impact for the
TAF period. There will be a brief improvement overnight but
smoke will once again cover the region tomorrow, bringing
visibilities down to MVFR and IFR. Other than that, winds will
remain sustained around 12 knots by tomorrow afternoon with
periodic gusts to 20 knots at times until the sun sets late.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Perroux