080
FXUS63 KMPX 161748
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1248 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain moves out this morning with skies gradually clearing
  today. Sunny and warmer conditions on tap for Friday.

- Further shower and storm chances arrive over the weekend, with
  another good chance for some widespread rain arriving late
  Sunday into early Monday. No severe weather is currently
  expected through the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

The last surge of rainfall is moving through the area as of around
230am cutting across the area from Albert Lea towards Eau Claire,
with dry conditions expected across the CWA by sunrise. Satellite
imagery shows a lack of any sort of convection with relatively warm
cloud tops and a lack of lightning activity until you look much
farther to the south by Kansas City, although a rumble or two is
still possible over the next few hours. As the surface low producing
the showers weekend and moves eastwards, winds will begin shifting
out of the northwest staying at 10-15mph throughout the day with
temperatures in the mid 60s to near 70 by this afternoon as sunshine
begins to peak through the clouds by then as well. Friday is
expected to be a quiet day with southerly winds and sunny skies
allowing temperatures to climb into the low to mid 80s for highs as
our next system begins to develop off the Rockies for the weekend.
Upper level flow at this point is zonal with a weak shortwave
showing up within some of the deterministic guidance, however based
off available moisture and the sounding profile, this looks to
mainly result in a bit of cloud cover arriving later on Friday.

The trend for Saturday has shifted towards isolated showers and weak
storms as a result of an upper level trough sliding through the
northern plains and southern Canada with a surface low forming in
response in southern Canada dragging a cold front through the region
by Saturday morning. The front is currently progged to move through
the northern half of the state leaving the MPX CWA relatively dry
with a few isolated showers possible mainly due to the mid-level
warm air advection and moisture caught up in the system. Thankfully,
northern Minnesota is currently subjected to more adverse drought
conditions due to the rainfall we have received in the southern half
of the state, and this system would bring some much needed
widespread precipitation to the area. The upper level system
continues to move towards Hudson Bay as it occludes and weakens
early to midday Sunday as another system then looks to form ahead of
another trough sweeping through the area into early next week.
Compared to guidance 24 hours ago, the late Sunday into Monday
system has seen increasing precipitation chances and intensity with
PWAT values increasing by around 1/4 to 1/2 inch, with widespread
rainfall arriving during the first half of Monday. The forcing is
fairly broad due to a low level jet bringing a plume of gulf
moisture northwards in addition to a broad upper level trough
ejecting a shortwave ahead of the primary feature. Best case
scenario for those that want to see more rainfall would be for this
trend to continue with the position of the surface low in the
perfect spot for a traditional broad area of precipitation within
the warm conveyor belt region of the cyclone. Being a few days out,
there is still quite a bit that could change, but the trend is going
in the right direction. Thunderstorm potential for now looks present
but not great, however until we see a few CAMs begin to pick up the
system we will hold off on commenting further as forecast soundings
have yet to show any real amount of instability.

Ensemble guidance shows potential for yet another round of
widespread rainfall towards Wednesday next week, however there is
about a 60/40 split in membership between another round of
precipitation and dry weather such that we need to wait a few days
to see the trend before trending the forecast beyond a 30-40 PoP.
Temperatures remain on the warmer side in the 70s and 80s throughout
the period, only falling behind the potential cold front in the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Early afternoon observations have reflected improvements to high
MVFR/low VFR ceilings across TAF sites. The upward trend is
forecast to continue in the short term, such that the 18z TAFs
all include improvements to VFR by mid-afternoon, or so. Breezy
westerly winds decrease into this evening and will shift
out of the south into Thursday morning. Winds will increase out
of the southwest by midday Friday, so expect an uptick in the
winds in forthcoming TAFs. Opted to keep AXN/STC dry overnight,
however latest hi-resolution models have depicted the chance for
a few isolated showers at the northernmost terminals. The
chance appears low, so will defer to the 00z issuance for
possible mention.

KMSP...Improvements to VFR this afternoon, with light winds
overnight. Southwest winds will increase Friday afternoon, which
will create crosswind setup on the parallels. Sustained winds
10-15 kts, with gusts around 20, to perhaps 25 kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR, slight chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S to W 15-20G30kts.
SUN...VFR, chc MVFR/SHRA late. Wind SE 10-15kts.
MON...MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SE 5-10 kts, bcmg NW 5-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...Strus