913
FXUS63 KMPX 092339
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
539 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A round of light mixed precipitation across central MN and western
WI later this evening into tonight.

- Above normal temperatures persist through next weekend. Highs
generally above freezing in the upper 30s to low 40s each day.

- Most of the upcoming week will be dry, with the best chance
  for snow on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Cloud cover through much of today has limited our potential to reach
anticipated forecasted highs. Based off of latest forecast obs, have
reduced MaxTs this afternoon back a couple of degrees, especially
across eastern MN and western WI. There are a few brief breaks in
the clouds across western MN to where highs have crept up into
the upper 30s to mid-40s but wont exceed beyond there. Radar
reflectivity cluttered with very weak echoes but with prevalent
dry air between 1-4kft as seen in our 12z sounding, any precip
is likely not reaching the surface. we are continuing to monitor
a wave that will be moving across the plains tonight. More
specifically, a FGEN band is expected to provided localized
forcing mainly to central MN and western WI tonight (mostly
from a line extending from Long Prairie MN over to Ladysmith,
WI). The timing of this wave has slowed some from the previous
forecast and is now expected to reach central MN later this
evening. Coverage of this precipitation is not expected to be
widespread by any means however the greater concern surrounds
p-types. Temps will be at or just above freezing as this wave
arrives. So areas that are just above the freezing mark can
expect a mix of rain and snow. For those in western WI, brief
periods of freezing rain and freezing drizzle could mix in with
the rain/snow prior to sunrise making for slippery travel
conditions.

Precip ends early Tuesday morning with gradually clearing skies
from SW to NE throughout the day. Highs wont be as warm as we
were today but still getting up to the 30s. Winds will be
increased to near 20- 25 mph as cold advection occurs from the
associated cold front after this wave passes through. Winds
decrease Tuesday night but will keep temps "cooler" with lows in
the upper teens to low 20s then similar highs for Wednesday.

It isn`t until Thursday where our next system arrives. Keeping
consistency with the previous discussion, no major changes to
this portion of the forecast. Ensemble guidance has tried to
shift the QPF maxima for this event farther west however, not
fully sold on deviating from the NBM given inconsistencies with
the shortwave`s placement. As of now QPF, ranges from a few
hundredths to a tenth of an inch of liquid mainly south of the
I-94 corridor. After this system passes, warm air returns with
mainly clear skies as we head into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 533 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

A band of light precipitation is expected across central
Minnesota & northwest Wisconsin this evening, likely at AXN/STC
& possible at RNH. Precip should start out as rain but could
change over to light snow as the evening progresses. Visibility
is not expected to drop below 5-6SM. Ceilings progressively
lower through the night with MVFR ceilings spreading from west
to east through the early morning hours. MVFR ceilings linger
into the afternoon, but clearing is expected at all terminals by
late afternoon or early evening. Winds become northwesterly
this evening with gusts of 20-25 kts developing overnight &
persisting through much of Tuesday.


KMSP...Expect any light precipitation tonight to remain north
of the terminal, but a few sprinkles or flurries are possible.
MVFR ceilings arrive in time for the morning rush, but should
clear out during the mid afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WInd VRB <5 kts.
THU...MVFR ceilings likely. Chance -SN. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...ETA