Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 200438

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1038 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 336 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020

A 1045+ mb high pressure remains overhead, which will lead to prime
radiational cooling conditions overnight. Widespread low
temperatures in the negative teens on Thursday AM with localized
values colder in western Minnesota. Opted to issue a Wind Chill
Advisory for portions of west and south central Minnesota where wind
chills could drop below -25 degrees by Thursday morning. Winds will
be light as the center of the high pressure moves overhead, but I
believe winds will still remain around 5-7mph.

The region remains under the influence under a broad area of high
pressure through the weekend, with dry conditions and warming
temperatures expected as winds back to a southerly flow during
Thursday afternoon. Thursday night temperatures will warm throughout
the night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020

A warming trend is expected into the weekend as ridging aloft builds
over the central US, and southwesterly flow at the surface develops
as a broad area of high pressure gradual slides southeast of the
area. Highs in the mid to upper 30s are expected by Friday, with
some areas possible reaching the 40s this weekend deepening on the
strength of the ridge and amount of cloud cover during the daylight
hours. Overnight lows will remain warm as well as southwest winds
remain persistent through the period, with values generally in the
upper teens to upper 20s.

Precipitation chances look minimal through the weekend but increase
into next week, as models generally agrees on digging a trough into
the central US and developing a vertically-stacked surface low
somewhere over the central plains/mid-Mississippi Valley. Models
show quite a lot of moisture present with with this system, as well
as plenty of QPF, but have been all over the place with the track
location of phasing with this system. more of a southern shift with
this system was noted with the 12Z runs today which would keep most
of the precipitation south of the area, but will hold on to chance
PoPs Monday night-Wednesday until more consistency in the track of
this system becomes evident.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1038 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020

Continue high pressure and clear skies with nothing more than a
wind shift to the southwest expected on Thursday.

KMSP...Smoke plume from the large fire in Becker is floating
around the metro and is the reason FCM briefly had a cig at 018.
This will likely give the appearance of clouds nearby the rest of
the night until winds become more southwesterly Thursday morning.

Fri...VFR. Wind SW 15G25 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind WSW 5 kts.


MN...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for MNZ041-042-



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