Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 191740 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1140 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

Light snow associated with a weak trough axis swinging across the
area developed mostly north of Interstate 94 overnight, correlated
with isentropic lift on the 290K surface. The progressive nature
of this lift/clipper and shallow moisture will limit post-daybreak
accumulations to under one inch. After 10 AM measurable snow
should have ended, with only scattered flurries out of the stratus
deck anticipated. Low clouds look a tad slower to move out, and
south/east central MN and west central WI may not see much sun
this afternoon at all. Brisk north/northwest winds in the wake of
the front will also contribute to the cloud cover in making it
feel like a somewhat chilly day.

Single-digit low temps are expected tonight, with the exception of
west central WI (Eau Claire to Ladysmith) given low clouds will
linger there into the nighttime hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 344 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

The upper level longwave trough will begin shifting eastward over
the Great Lakes Region on Tuesday but northwest flow will persist
over the Western Great Lakes region. At the surface, high pressure
will shift southward ahead of a surface trough with its low pressure
center expected to travel along the Canadian-Minnesota border. Warm
air advection in advance of this system will allow for isentropic
lift and precipitation chances along and north of I-94 during
Tuesday morning and afternoon. The bulk of the precipitation still
looks to fall to the north of the forecast area with only a couple
hundredths of precipitation expected over East Central MN and West
Central WI. Precipitation looks to start off as snow but drying in
the DGZ will prevent ice production, and thus precipitation will
likely transition to freezing drizzle during the afternoon. At this
time, ice accumulations will remain trace to 0.01 inch. Surface
temperatures support the possibility of freezing drizzle with highs
on Friday expected to be in the 20s to near 30 degrees East Central
MN and West Central WI.

Weak cold air advection will follow the clipper Tuesday night, and
will keep temperatures below normal for Wednesday. The warming trend
will begin on Thursday as the upper level trough shifts to over the
Northeast CONUS with ridging setting up over the Great Plains. Both
the GFS and ECMWF agree that H850 temperatures will reach above
freezing over the forecast area by Thursday afternoon. However,
surface heating looks to be limited by rich boundary layer moisture
keeping skies broken to cloudy. Regardless, temperatures are still
expected to warm to near to above normal. Southerly winds will be
brisk with gusts near 20 kts.

Friday will exhibit above normal temperatures as the upper level
ridge continues its eastward progression and southwesterly surface
winds continue to advect warm air. Precipitation chances return with
the upper level trough on our doorstep. The above freezing
temperatures on Friday will allow precipitation to start off as
rain. Cooling overnight into Saturday looks to allow for a rain/snow
mix and solely snow during mid-Saturday morning. Models still
diverge in solutions on how the trough will evolve through the
weekend, but both agree on on a cooling trend early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

MVFR cigs will rise slowly this afternoon before scattering out
this evening. Timing of the clearing is the most uncertain part of
the forecast with clouds typically lingering longer than expected
this time of year. Given the expansive area of stratus this
morning, today will probably be no different. However, there are
breaks in the overcast across northern Minnesota and the depth of
the cloud cover isn`t particularly thick.

KMSP...Cigs AOB 016 for the first couple hours of the forecast
appears to be a good bet before rising a bit into the evening.

Tue...VFR with MVFR possible. Winds SW at 10G20 kts.
Wed...VFR with MVFR possible. Winds SE at 5-10 kts.
Thu...MVFR with IFR ceilings possible. Winds SSE at 10G20 kts.




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