Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 051049
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
449 AM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

.UPDATE...For 12Z Aviation discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 408 AM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

No change with the expectation of mild and dry weather into the
weekend, as western CONUS mid-level ridging continues to build
eastward, and high pressure remains in tact at the surface.

In the near-term, mid-level clouds have formed in the vicinity of
the high pressure surface ridge bisecting the forecast area. Said
cloud cover has limited fog development overnight, with the
exception of far west central MN where clear skies and calm winds
have allowed for patchy development. The cloud cover looks to linger
through the morning, which could slow diurnal warming somewhat, but
lower 40s/50s like we saw yesterday seem achievable.

Fog and stratus development will be possible tonight into Saturday
morning as we see continued increasing boundary layer moisture with
snowmelt, combined with light winds. Therefore, despite the fact
that 925-850mb temps moderate +2C degrees from today into Saturday,
will take a conservative approach with forecast highs and stick to
the low 40s to low 50s range for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 408 AM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

Temperatures continue to warm through early next week as 850 mb WAA
into the Central and Northern Plains builds upper-level ridging over
the central CONUS. With temperatures the last few days overachieving
and NBM`s cold bias prevalent into early next week, had good
confidence to bump up highs Sunday thru Tuesday to nearly match the
previous shift. Sunday and Monday, highs are forecast in the upper
50s to lower 60s for south-central MN. West-central WI will remain
slightly cooler in the mid-50s. Overnight lows look to eclipse our
normal highs this time of year Tuesday and Wednesday morning with
most of the CWA struggling to drop below 40. In fact, Tuesday is
forecast to be the warmest day of next week, though, latest guidance
has trended slightly cooler. This is due the expected arrival of a
500 mb trough on the west coast slowing down and becoming more
positively tilted. In consequence, decreased low-level WAA occurs
into the Northern Plains allowing the aforementioned upper-level
ridge to flatten earlier. Still, daily high temperature records will
likely be broken Tuesday with low to mid 60s expected for highs. For
reference, MSP`s record high for March 9th is 61 and their forecast
high for Tuesday is 66.

Precipitation chances return Tuesday night into Wednesday as a
southwest to northeast oriented frontal zone and southwesterly
upper-level jetstreak encroach our region. With decent agreement
between the GFS, ECMWF, and GEM and a possibly coupled jet, have
increased PoPs and added some thunder to the grids. Thus, we may see
our first thunderstorms relatively early this Spring. Temperatures
decrease the latter half of next week as the front pushes east
through MN/WI Wednesday, bringing our warm spell to an end.
Temperatures appear to hover near normal past the end of the period.
Whether or not we get more precipitation is another question. A
slight signal for increased precip exists in the long-term, though,
more certainty would be nice in hopes to negate our region`s current
drought.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 449 AM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

The area of mid-level clouds over eastern MN and west central WI
will be slow to erode today with the surface ridge in place. Will
delay the scattering of the deck until this afternoon. Tonight into
Saturday morning looks to have a higher chance of stratus/fog
development, so have included an IFR/MVFR mention at most sites
toward daybreak Saturday. Winds will remain light east/southeast to
calm through the period.

KMSP...Fog/stratus development for early Saturday morning is of low
confidence, but given the trends of hi-res models, felt a mention was
warranted.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind S 15G30 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind VRB 5 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind W becoming SSE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...CTG
AVIATION...LS


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