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000
FXUS63 KMPX 282320
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
620 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

.UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Critical fire weather day across west central Minnesota. Red Flag
  Warning in effect this afternoon.

- Above normal temperatures Thursday through early next week.

- Rain chances increase late Monday and Tuesday, continuing through
  end of the week.

Under the mainly sunny skies and dry air mass, temperatures have
risen into the upper 70s to mid 80s F across the Upper Mississippi
Valley. Dew points are only in the 30s and 40s while RH values have
plummeted into the teens across the region. Wind gusts have also
picked up after 18z with locations gusting up to 25 mph out of the
SSE. This has led to another critical fire WX day across western
Minnesota and the Red Flag warning remains in effect until 02Z for
those counties. Winds will be lighter further east so conditions
won`t be quite as critical, but will still warrant caution when
burning with elevated fire wx conditions.

On Monday and Tuesday, warm air and moisture advection will increase
as southerly flow intensifies. With an uptick in moisture our fire
wx concerns should be limited going forward. This increase in
moisture will allow precipitation chances to finally increase across
western Minnesota Monday evening and across much of the area on
Tuesday. However, given the lack of shear, synoptic forcing, and
"skinny" CAPE profiles over our area, expect convection to mainly be
diurnally forced and disorganized/sub-severe in nature. These storms
may not be severe, but any storm that pops up could have the
potential for heavy rain/brief downpours before they collapse.
Rainfall amounts will vary but certainly can`t rule out locations
picking up 1" or more by the end of the week. It`s important to
stress that these storms will be very scattered in nature and will
not produce widespread precipition.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

VFR through the period with high ceilings present this evening and
again tomorrow afternoon/evening. Rain chances occur late in this
period Monday evening, but chances are not yet high enough to
include in the TAF. Best chances will be to the west at AXN and RWF.
Winds will become lighter tonight with light/variable in western WI
to lighter but still sustained around 10 knots across western MN.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Chc aftn/eve TSRA. Winds S 10-15G20 kts.
WED...VFR. Chc aftn/eve TSRA. Winds S 10-15 kts.
THU...VFR. Chc aftn/eve TSRA. Winds S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Chippewa-Douglas-
     Lac Qui Parle-Pope-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Yellow Medicine.

WI...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...NDC