Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 132047

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
247 PM CST Tue Nov 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Nov 13 2018

The surface ridge over the eastern CWA will exit over the Great
Lakes late tonight into Wednesday morning. This will allow more of
a south/southwest wind develop across all but the far east
tonight. There is a fair amount of low end mid cloud moving
through the Dakotas and will move into at least the MN portion of
the area overnight. With some pressure falls ahead of the Dakotas
trough and increasing pressure gradient to the west, temperatures
will likely become nearly steady or rise slowly later tonight
across western areas.

Wednesday looks warmer with temperatures warming through the 40s
to the west. A 50 degree reading possible to the lee of the
Buffalo Ridge in the far southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Nov 13 2018

Weak ridging ahead of the next trough should be enough to push
some modified Pacific type air across the CWA into Thursday. The
10 to 15 degree below normal temperature trend will turn to a
5 to 10 degree above normal trend through Thursday.

Following this break in the cold, the next strong cold front drops
south across the area Friday. Colder air and shot of light snow
will be found across mainly the west and south portion of the CWA
Friday into Friday night. The GFS has trended a bit farther south
and resembles the 12z ECMWF quite well for this period. At the
moment, a 1 to 2 inch snow event will be possible over the
southwest area.

Colder air filters in over the region through the weekend with the
return of below normal temperatures. Both long term
deterministic models do trend warmer again into next week,
however. The eastern CONUS ridge moves east and the western ridge
builds over the northern plains. This should provide more modified
Pacific air to return then.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1104 AM CST Tue Nov 13 2018

It looks to be a quiet period overall with VFR conditions and
mainly light winds expected. High pressure centered south of the
region will slide east through the period, eventually allow more
consistent south/southeast flow to develop on Wednesday (wind
speeds should start to pick up toward the end of the period as the
gradient tightens ahead of a frontal boundary that will be
approaching from the northern Plains).

KMSP...Wind direction will be tricky for a time later tonight into
Wednesday morning before consistent south/southeast flow sets up,
but speeds during that time will be light. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected.

Wednesday night...VFR. Southwest wind around 10 kt, but 30-40 kt
around 2-3 kt ft AGL.
Thursday...VFR. Southwest wind 5 to 10 kt.
Thursday night...MVFR possible due to lower ceilings. Variable
wind 5 kt or less becoming west.
Friday...MVFR possible with a chance of light rain or snow. West
wind 5 to 10 kt becoming northwest.
Friday night...MVFR possible early with a chance of light rain or
snow. Northwest wind 5 to 10 kt.
Saturday...VFR. Northwest wind 5 to 10 kt.




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