110
FXUS63 KMPX 100819
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
319 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A series of wintry systems bring chances for rain and snow
  this morning, tonight into Wednesday, and Thursday into
  Friday.

- A more organized winter system may impact the region this
  weekend.

- Temperatures will run close to normal through Saturday then
  become much cooler for the start of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows a fairly nondescript
pattern with high pressure over central Canada nudging southward
into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, with a quasi-
stationary front stretching from northern California eastward
across the Rockies into the mid-Mississippi River Valley on
through the Great Lakes. Multiple centers of low pressure are
identified along this highly elongated front. Aloft, generally
zonal flow sits over the northern tier states from the Pacific
to the Atlantic, with a weak broad trough on the windward side
of the northern Rockies. Also, a potent cutoff upper low sites
over Baja, with a high amount of moisture associated with it.
The zonal flow is also allowing Pacific moisture a pathway all
the way to the Great Lakes.

A very minute shortwave aloft has allowed an area of light snow
to stride eastward across central MN early this morning. Obs
have indicated visibilities briefly down to 1SM at times, so
even despite a fairly obvious dry layer aloft on model
initialized soundings, the precip intensity of the snow is
overcoming that dry layer to reach the surface. Little in the
way of accumulation is expected, and mainly confined to areas
north of a line from Appleton MN to St Cloud MN to Rice Lake WI.
This area of snow is expected to shift off to the east of the
WFO MPX coverage area by daybreak, with only mid- to-upper level
clouds remaining in place through the rest of the day. Highs
will come in much closer to normal values today, ranging from
the upper 30s to upper 40s.

As the day progresses, the western weak trough will dig farther
southward, meeting up with the SW CONUS low to make for a much
deeper trough axis from north-to-south over the western CONUS.
This will aid in several waves of surface low pressure
developing along the aforementioned surface front, particularly
over IA and southern WI. The improved surface convergence,
development of the deeper trough and strong upper level jetting
downstream of the Upper Midwest will make for another round of
precipitation later today through tonight which will encompass
much of our coverage area. Precip will start out as snow for the
northern half of our area and rain for the southern half, with
snow becoming the dominant p-type with time going into the
evening hours. QPF remains in the 0.15- 0.25" range for much of
the northern half of our coverage area with under 0.15" south.
However, far eastern part of the coverage area will be in the
best position for the development of the trough and the surface
features along with highest QPF, thus most susceptible to
snowfall accumulations nearing 3 inches tonight into Wednesday
morning. Closer to the TC metro and across much of central-
southern MN, around an inch of snowfall accumulation looks
likely. The bulk of this snowfall will come overnight, shifting
off to the east and diminishing after daybreak Wednesday.

A lull in the precipitation comes late Wednesday through
Thursday morning as north-south oriented high pressure slides
across the central CONUS. The next system arrives Thursday. This
system takes more of a clipper-like formation and track,
developing over the southern Canadian Rockies Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. Dropping to nearly 990mb, this system
will quickly shift eastward across the Dakotas and over MN/WI
Thursday night into Friday morning. The origin and deeper nature
of this system will allow it to drag an appreciable amount of
Pacific moisture with it into the Upper Midwest, with more
widespread coverage of snowfall for our coverage area. However,
most of the precipitation of this system will come as rainfall
before changing over to snow, with snowfall amounts limited to
less than an inch for areas near and north of I- 94. Rusk County
WI may again be the big winner with forecast amounts in the
1-2" range.

Going into the weekend, which has already drawn plenty of
attention, is a broad longwave trough developing over central
NOAM late Saturday through Sunday. This trough will aid in a
Colorado or Panhandle Low development, dragging the low
northeastward into the Great Lakes over the weekend. This puts
our coverage area on the cold side of the system which is brings
both Pacific and Gulf moisture well east and north into the
Upper Midwest. Still a lot of questions as to the track of the
low, the orientation and strength of the trough and moisture
content/location. While this system looks to be the relative
most poignant of the systems in this forecast period, models to
continue to back away from the original high amounts of snowfall
seen over the past couple days. Still cannot reliably say with
any certainty what snowfall amounts will be but it bears
watching to see how the models (including ensembles, AI and
deterministic) play it out. The only certainty is that behind
this weekend system, an appreciable surge of colder air will
move into our region, bringing below normal temperatures for the
mid-March period which could last until the calendar says it`s
spring.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A weak shortwave disturbance moving eastward over northern-
central MN will produce a few rounds of light-mod snowfall
mainly north of I-94, thus only affecting AXN-STC this morning
prior to sunrise. Precipitation is expected to remain north of
all remaining TAF sites, though some echoes may show up on KMPX
radar at other sites but a significant dry layer aloft will
prevent falling precip from reaching the surface at the
remaining 5 TAF sites. Clouds will remain in place through the
day, with more widespread precipitation expected to develop late
this afternoon and increase in coverage through this evening
into early morning Wednesday. This later round of precip looks
to start out as intermittent rain or rain/snow mix before
becoming more sustained light snow tonight into tomorrow with
minor accumulations looking likely. Mid-to-upper level ceilings
will develop this morning then steadily lower this afternoon,
including to MVFR by this evening then continue to drop to IFR
tonight into Wednesday morning as the precip sets in.
Visibilities will also drop, ranging from MVFR to IFR depending
on p-type and precip intensity.

KMSP...High clouds will increase in coverage through daybreak,
resulting in ceilings throughout the day. There is a small
chance of rain/snow showers early-mid day today but chances are
too low to mention so have kept the TAF dry through the day
today. Chances increase this evening for steady rain/snow to
develop this evening, with more pronounced light snow this
evening through much of the overnight hours with minor
accumulations likely (around 1 inch). Ceilings will drop through
the MVFR range this evening to IFR tonight with the sustained
light snow. Winds will remain around 10 kts through this
duration, with directions from the NE through this evening then
N late tonight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR ceilings likely. Chc PM -RASN. Wind S 10-15G20 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
SAT...MVFR ceilings likely. Chc day -RASN, likely night -SN.
Wind SE 5-10 kts becoming NE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...JPC