Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 230345
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1045 PM CDT Sun May 22 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun May 22 2022

KEY MESSAGES

- Confidence is high on widespread rainfall across a large section of
  the western Great Lakes into the upper MS Valley midweek, but
  lower confidence on where the heaviest rainfall will occur.

An isolated shower is possible through early evening across mainly
west central/central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin, where
elevated instability exists and able to generate convection. This
shouldn`t be the case tomorrow as much drier air will reside. Frost
will be possible over central, east central Mn, and portions of west
central Wi where temperatures fall to near freezing, limited cloud
cover tonight, and a light wind is expected.

Very little chance of measurable precipitation exists from this
late this evening through Tuesday afternoon. A persistent
east/southeasterly drier low level flow will keep any measurable
chances of precipitation well south and west of our CWA. I can`t rule
out a few sprinkles, or even a hundredth or two of liquid water
falling Monday afternoon/evening over southwest/west-central/south
central Mn, but this is more of an outlier.

The global ensembles (EC/GFS/GEM) and the latest deterministic runs
still have some uncertainties on the location of the heaviest
precipitation and surface low track with the midweek system.
However, even some of the outliers still support widespread
precipitation for the southeastern 2/3rds of the MPX CWA with the
heaviest over southeast Mn and into west-central WI. Even the QPF
50th percentile (Average mean) of all ensembles support at least 0.25
to 0.50 inches of rainfall from late Tuesday night and into early
Thursday morning for east-central, south central MN, and adjacent
west-central WI. However, the 90-95th percentiles suggest up to 1-2
inches will fall in the same locations. Farther to the
west/northwest, probabilities diminish considerably. Pops will be
based on the higher probabilities of getting at least a quarter of an
inch of rainfall, with only chance Pops farther to the
west/northwest. Temperatures will reflect the cloudy/rainy forecast
on both Wednesday/Thursday with highs only reaching the 50s.

Even though the midweek system will likely be slower to depart, the
main upper level support and moisture depth will be limited so chance
Pops look reasonable with little additional significant widespread
QPF amounts going into Thursday. Past Thursday, a longwave trough
will reside over western Canada and the northwest CONUS. Thus,
unsettled conditions are likely with several chances of precipitation
for the holiday weekend. Temperatures will moderate but I am not
expecting anything too warm with readings likely in the 70s, or
perhaps an isolated 80 or two.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sun May 22 2022

No changes needed to going TAFs. Skies have been clearing out this
evening, as expected. Monday morning, we`ll get a cu field around 8k
feet going again, with mid cloud cover increasing as energy from the
shortwave over WY moves across Neb toward southern MN. Dry southeast
winds will keep any rain this period in the Dakotas and Neb. VFR
conditions are on tap, with S to SE winds developing by the morning
as high pressure moves into the Great Lakes.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
Wed...MVFR with -RA. Chc IFR. Wind NE 10-20kts bcmg N overnight.
Thu...Morning MVFR chc -RA. Aftn bcmg VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Monday for Benton-Chisago-
     Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Todd.

WI...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Monday for Barron-Chippewa-
     Dunn-Eau Claire-Polk-Rusk.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JLT
AVIATION...MPG


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