Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 202331

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
631 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019

.Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019

A shortwave trough pivoting from northeast MN through southwest WI
today has brought widespread stratus and a few flurries to west
central MN. Slightly cooler air and clearing skies behind the
shortwave will allow temperatures to cool into mid to upper 20s
overnight. A few areas may see patchy fog overnight, but with winds
remaining near 4-6 kts, dense fog is not expected.

MN and western WI will remain under northwest flow on Friday as the
upper level ridge gradually progresses eastward over the central
CONUS. Mostly clear skies should allow temperatures to reach into
the 40s Thursday afternoon. Another shortwave will cross through
eastern WI late Thursday with a surface cold front extending
through MN. This will bring another surge of slightly cooler air
with 850 mb temps in western WI cooling to -7C to -4C Thursday
night. This will allow for another night of surface temperatures
cooling to below freezing and pausing the remnant snow melt.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019

Overall the long term period will feature near-normal temperatures
with little precipitation through the end of the period. The one
opportunity for precip comes during the latter half of the weekend
into early next week, but chances for measurable precipitation are
quite low.

By Friday, high pressure will be overhead and gradually work
eastward with time. Southerly winds at the surface don`t develop
until Friday night into Saturday from west to east, so highs Friday
will be held in the 40s, although with mostly sunny skies, we could
see temps a few degrees warmer in places that have lost most of the
snow pack.

An upper level shortwave will lift northeast from Colorado into
Nebraska from Friday night through Saturday. There is still some
model disagreement with how far north the precip will make it, but
sided with the drier EC/GEM solutions as this wave will send weak
forcing northward from Nebraska but run into strong high pressure
already in place, with another high advancing quickly southward out
of Canada into the upper Midwest. The result is a general 20-30 PoP
for Sunday/Sunday night, except a slight chance pop also sneaking
into far southern MN late Saturday night.

The aforementioned high pressure moving in by early next week will
keep us cool and dry for the first half of the week.  Southerly flow
will develop on the backside of the high with a warming trend for
the latter half of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019

VFR conditions for most sites, with some MVFR clouds across
western Wisconsin at KEAU. Expect northerly winds tonight, taking
on a more westerly direction tomorrow. A few gusts near 20 kts are
possible Thursday afternoon.

VFR conditions throughout. There is a chance that cloud bases
could drop below 3000 ft this evening and early tonight, but we
should see skies clear toward morning.

Fri...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Sun...MVFR with IFR/-SHRA possible. Wind SE 5-10kt becoming NE.




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