Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 092322
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
622 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

Updated to include 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

Overall a dry period this evening through Monday night as surface
high pressure moves in from Canada. There should be enough moisture
aloft for some high level clouds this evening into tonight which
should help moderate temperatures overnight. So as far as frost is
concerned for tonight/tomorrow morning it should mainly be in areas
that are not yet susceptible like the region north of I-94.

There does appear to be a small wave at 500 mb moving across southern
Minnesota on Monday, but rain is not expected due to how dry the
atmosphere will be. This dry air will bring RHs down into the upper
20s to mid 30s, but critical fire weather is not expected due to
forecast winds remaining low. In addition it will be seasonably cool
with afternoon highs in the mid 50s to low 60s (normals for this time
of year are in the mid to upper 60s). This cool air is present
thanks to northerly flow brought in by a cut-off low over the Great
Lakes/Ontario area off to our northeast.

With surface high pressure in place, Monday night will be much
clearer. For this reason temperatures will fall much faster than
Sunday night and frost is much more likely. Some areas of freeze are
also possible in west central Wisconsin including the Eau Claire
area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

The main story of the long term period is the pattern shift we see
the middle of next week as we finally exit this seasonably cool and
dry north flow pattern we are in this weekend. Confidence remains
high that we`ll see temperatures return back to near normal by the
end of the week, but confidence remains low on any specific
precipitation chances.

We`ll start this period with high pressure centered right on top of
us. However also happening on Tuesday is the h5 low that has been
sprawled out from the Great Lakes to the Canadian Maritimes finally
begins to shift east. This will allow the blocking high over the
Canadian Prairies to break down and shift to the east, all of which
will finally break us out of this rut of seasonably cool and dry
weather we have been in. In it`s place will be weak zonal flow. This
will allow highs to follow our normals into the 70s by the end of the
week into next weekend. We stayed with the NBM for temperatures, but
NBM highs from Thursday onward are between the 25th and 50th
percentile, so if anything, in the coming days we will see these
values creep up. The weak flow will also feature weakly forced waves,
the first of which arrives Thursday night. There continues to be
little agreement in the deterministic or ensemble members with any
one system, so left the NBM PoPs as is, which are pretty much endless
20s to 40s PoPs that begin Thursday night and last through next
weekend at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

Solid VFR conditions expected throughout this TAF duration. Cloud
decks around 100 this evening then between 100 and 200 overnight
through tomorrow with ceilings from time to time. Winds will
generally run between N and NE with speeds 10 kt or less.

KMSP...Main issue will be wind directions, particularly setting up as
a crosswind over the parallels. Wind directions overnight through
Monday will run NE, between 030 and 060. Sustained speeds will run
10kt or less but there may be some occasional gusts Monday afternoon
in the 15-20kt range.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...VFR. Wind light and variable.
Wed...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts gusting to 15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...NDC
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC


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