Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KABQ 251122 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
522 AM MDT Sun Aug 25 2019

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period. Afternoon and early evening gusts to between 20-25kts will
be common.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...304 AM MDT Sun Aug 25 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
Near record to record heat will be the main weather story today and
Monday, especially across for the east-central and southeast plains.
Some relief in the form of a cold front from the northeast remains
in the forecast for late on Monday across northeast NM with the
cooler air pushing westward into the Rio Grande Valley and points
west Monday night and Tuesday morning. Moisture will increase behind
the cold front, resulting in a return for afternoon and evening
shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday into next weekend. High
temperatures will gradually cool off toward average for late August.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Near record to record heat will be the rule areawide through Monday.
Issued a heat advisory for the of Chaves County plains for this
afternoon as models continue to inch upward with temperatures for
much of the forecast area but especially the southeast plains. A
backdoor cold front remains on tap for late-day Monday across
northeast NM, pushing west and south during the evening and overnight
hours. Look for the front to move over Glorieta Pass and through
Tijeras Canyon a few hours prior to sunrise Tuesday with east and
southeast winds continuing until around noon. Gulf moisture then
gradually increases behind the front Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Isolated showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are possible mainly
over the southwest and south- central mountains Tuesday afternoon and
early evening as a result. Shower and thunderstorm coverage is
forecast to increase Wednesday but similar to last night, the GFS
seems overdone with precipitation with the ECMWF too dry.
Essentially split the difference between the two models given the
moisture increase and the fact that several convergence zones will
likely help get storms going Wednesday afternoon central and west.

Both the GFS and ECWMF indicate that weak vort lobes/short-wave
troughs start moving in on the northwest flow aloft east of the Four
Corners` high centered over AZ, helping to trigger at least
scattered afternoon and evening convection over much of the forecast
area Thursday through at least next weekend. High temperatures will
trend down through the latter half of the work week and particularly
after another backdoor frontal passage Saturday.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The warming and drying trend will plateau today into Monday, with
well above normal temperatures forecast and some record and near-
record highs expected. Minimum humidity will be reaching critical
threshold across much of the area both today and Monday, along with
worsening overnight recovery. Wetting storms will be absent from the
forecast until after moisture is replenished by a backdoor front
Monday night. Until then hot, dry and unstable conditions will
expand across the area with Haines values of 5 and 6. Another,
stronger backdoor front will bring more moisture Tuesday night into
Wednesday, setting the stage for daily rounds of wetting storms
through the end of the work-week and into the weekend as the upper
high remains west west of New Mexico over southern California and
Arizona.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM MDT this evening for
the following zones... NMZ538.

&&

$$

33


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.