Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 232344

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
544 PM MDT Mon Apr 23 2018

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. A few breezes this
afternoon will diminish with sunset. Areas of virga across western
and central NM may produce gusty and erratic winds through
approximately 02Z. Showers and isolated thunderstorms across
northeast NM are already diminishing, but could see a few more cells
develop through 06Z. These storms will also be capable of gusty and
erratic winds. The The leading edge of a strong back door front is
expected to enter far northeastern NM by 10Z-12Z Tuesday, reaching
KTCC around 15Z, and KROW by 21Z. Winds will rapidly become
north and northeast behind the front with gusts between 30 and 35kt
likely. Later Tuesday evening and overnight, MVFR to IFR cigs will be
possible across eastern NM.



.PREV DISCUSSION...218 PM MDT Mon Apr 23 2018...
The warming trend continues today, with high temperatures reaching
above normal areawide. A few showers or storms across northern
portions of the area may produce strong and gusty winds late this
afternoon and evening. Warming will continue Tuesday as well, except
for across the Northeast and East Central Plains where a backdoor
cold front will provide some cooling. The backdoor front will create
strong and gusty east canyon winds into the Rio Grande and Upper
Tularosa Valley Tuesday night. A few storms are possible with the
front, mainly over the Sangre De Cristo Mountains. Another backdoor
front will push in Thursday and set the state for an increase in
shower and thunderstorm activity going into Friday and Saturday. Many
central and western locales may see the most significant rainfall in
a long time by early this weekend. Look for drying and warming by
Sunday, with southwest winds on the uptrend.


A slight uptick in PWATs, combined with daytime heating and a
shortwave trough moving across the central/southern Rockies, is
producing a round of high-based convection this afternoon across
northern New Mexico. Very little measurable rainfall is expected,
with strong/gusty winds and dry lightning the more likely weather
phenomena. Otherwise, the warming trend continues with temperatures
5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. Warming will persist
into Tuesday most areas, except for across the Northeast and East
Central Plains where 15-20 degrees of cooling is forecast thanks to a
backdoor cold front. Ahead of the front, highs will be above to well
above normal, likely reaching 90 degrees at Roswell. A few showers
or storms are possible with the front, focusing over the Sangres.
Areas of blowing dust may develop as well, although rainfall from
last Fri/Sat may put a damper on the extent. The backdoor front will
create strong/gusty east canyon/gap winds into the Rio Grande and
Upper Tularosa Valleys Tuesday night. A Wind Advisory will likely be
required. Daytime heating and limited moisture will combine to
produce a few showers or storms Wednesday afternoon from Mt. Taylor
northeast to the Jemez and Sangres.

Another backdoor front will push through Thursday, with PWATs
climbing behind it into Friday as Gulf moisture gets pulled into the
state head of an approaching Pacific trough/low. PoPs ramp-up
Thursday night through Saturday, with many central and western
locales likely to see the 1st significant rainfall in a long time. A
few strong storms are possible Friday, but the threat for stronger
storms trends up Saturday as the westerlies increase providing
improved storm structure. All that said, the latest GFS and ECMWF are
still at odds with the approaching Pacific trough and our forecast
leans much closer to the GFS. Forecast confidence is still generally
low beyond Thursday.



There will be no significant, widespread critical fire weather
conditions through the next week.

Upper level disturbance well to our north will bring a weak short
wave trough across northern NM this pm and evening. Just enough
moisture and instability will be present to spark a few showers and
thunderstorms over the northern mountains and northeast. Some of the
storms will be mostly or all dry, with dry lightning and strong,
gusty winds possible. It will be dry everywhere later tonight except
in the far northeast where a shower could occur, just ahead of a
potent back door cold front. This front will reach Clayton before
sunrise, and continue south and west during the day, although
slowing some. Winds will be a concern Tuesday into Tuesday night
across the Northeast and East Central Plains, perhaps kicking up
some dust. It will be much cooler in the northeast Tuesday, with
highs 20 degrees lower than today, while highs will be similar to
today elsewhere. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to favor
the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and far northeast Tuesday.

The front will continue south and west Tuesday night, pouring into
the Rio Grande Valley early Tuesday night and reaching the AZ border
Wednesday morning. Strong wind gusts will be possible in the Middle
Rio Grande Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will expand south
across the eastern plains Tuesday night, with lingering showers and
storms over the northern mountains Wednesday. It will be a cool day

Another short wave trough will pass to our northeast Thursday and
bring a back door cold front down the east side of the mountains
late Thursday and Thursday night, again squeezing into the Rio
Grande Valley and moving over the Continental Divide by Friday
morning. Meanwhile a potent storm system will be taking shape off
the West Coast Friday. It will draw moisture north into NM, with a
decent outbreak of showers and thunderstorms possible from Friday
through Saturday. Drier air will move in Sunday. Another storm could
impact the state early next week, including severe weather on the
eastern plains.

Ventilation will not be a big concern through the next week. There
will be some poor rates in the Middle Rio Grande Valley the east
slopes of the central mountains Wednesday.





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