Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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933 FXUS65 KABQ 201122 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM Issued by National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 522 AM MDT Tue May 20 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 513 AM MDT Tue May 20 2025 - Temperatures will begin climbing through late week, with highs reaching the upper 80s to mid 90s Friday and Saturday across the state. The risk for heat-related illnesses may increase over Chases County Friday and Saturday where highs approach 100. - Dry weather will persist through the Memorial Day holiday with light winds with a few afternoon breezes and low humidity values. -Freezing or near freezing temperatures this morning across valley and lowland locations. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 114 AM MDT Tue May 20 2025 Upper trough that brought windy conditions and scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area has now pushed into the central and southern Plains. Dry weather and lighter winds will persist as northwest flow sets up over New Mexico through this this morning, then the flow becomes westerly by Wednesday across the area. A warm up will commence with temperatures reaching to low to mid 90s by Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 114 AM MDT Tue May 20 2025 High pressure across the Pacific will allow height rises to continue across the area with west winds across the area through Wednesday night. Model guidance shows a short wave trough will move onshore in the Pacific Northwest on Thursday. The eastward progression of the trough will switch winds from west to southwest as the trough moves across northern Idaho and far western Montana Thursday evening. As the high pressure moves over the Pacific moves it will be centered over the Baja of California. The southwest flow will allow temperatures to soar well above climatological normals for highs by latter part of this week. Dry weather will persist through Thursday, before moisture will stream northward as high pressure moves into the Gulf. This will allow for winds over the lower Texas coast to turn to the south and transport shallow moisture into portions of eastern New Mexico. The dry line will move westward on Monday providing enough lift for isolated showers on Sunday and isolated showers and thunderstorm over the eastern plains of New Mexico. The first 100 degree temperature appears more and more likely during the latter part of the week. A look at the overnight probabilities of reaching 100 degrees at Roswell on Friday have trended higher at 75% && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 513 AM MDT Tue May 20 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Surface winds will be west and northwest AOB 08kt, then increase 11-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Winds will diminish after sunset with SKC at all terminals through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 114 AM MDT Tue May 20 2025 Quiet fire weather conditions will prevail across the area through the latter part of the week. High pressure will bring light west winds with afternoon breezes through Wednesday, then southwest winds from Thursday through early next week across the area. Min RH values will be in the single digits to lower teens higher terrain through Thursday across the area. By Friday, return flow from the Gulf will bring some shallow moisture to far eastern New Mexico providing a modest bump in RH values on Friday. A warming trend will begin today with temperatures reaching the lower to mid by Wednesday, then mid to upper 90s toward the latter part of the week in the lowland desert areas with cooler temperatures in higher terrain and mountain areas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 71 40 81 45 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 68 29 76 33 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 68 37 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 73 33 80 37 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 70 39 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 73 34 82 39 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 72 39 81 44 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 75 45 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 73 41 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 82 38 87 41 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 86 43 91 47 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 62 31 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 69 45 75 51 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 69 43 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 67 38 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 57 32 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 62 28 69 31 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 69 33 76 39 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 68 38 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 76 40 82 45 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 70 45 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 74 42 80 47 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 76 51 83 57 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 78 47 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 80 45 87 51 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 78 47 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 81 40 87 46 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 79 45 86 51 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 80 40 87 46 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 80 46 87 52 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 80 42 87 47 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 74 48 81 54 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 78 46 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 85 48 90 53 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 70 44 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 72 45 79 51 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 72 40 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 73 35 81 41 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 68 40 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 73 42 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 73 42 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 78 49 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 73 46 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 68 39 74 41 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 74 37 80 41 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 75 38 80 41 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 73 40 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 75 46 81 47 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 74 43 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 82 46 86 49 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 78 46 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 80 48 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 80 51 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 80 48 87 53 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 82 47 87 51 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 86 53 93 58 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 83 49 88 54 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 83 46 88 51 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for NMZ216-222-228- 229-241. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...99