Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 092224
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
324 PM MST Fri Dec 9 2022

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Dec 9 2022

Light showers over southeastern New Mexico will clear out this
evening, but patchy fog may develop tonight over the same area.
Fair weather with seasonal temperatures are expected this weekend out
ahead of a Pacific storm system that will impact the region early
next week. Strong winds are expected Monday and Tuesday across
the southern mountains and eastern Plains. Significant snowfall
accumulations and blowing snow are expected in mountainous areas
of western and central New Mexico, with light snow accumulations
possible in lower elevations. Below average temperatures statewide
and breezy conditions on the eastern Plains will likely persist
through late next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Dec 9 2022

Weak wind maximum at jet level moving through western CO will drag a
band of mainly mid level clouds through northern NM this evening. A
few flurries/sprinkles are possible over the northern mountains
during the early evening hours before the wave pushes east of NM.
Low clouds and sprinkles/drizzle over the southeast plains are
forecast to push northeastward late this afternoon but could return
late tonight into Saturday morning mainly over the southern half or
so of Roosevelt county into far eastern Chaves county. Patchy fog is
also possible once the mid and high clouds clear out. Saturday
continues to look like the best weather day of the week with mostly
sunny skies, above average temperatures and light winds areawide. A
weak and dry upper-level trough will slide eastward through southern
NM Saturday afternoon, generating a few mid and high clouds and
little else.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Dec 9 2022

Fair weather on Sunday with temperatures 5-10 degrees above
average will give way to more unsettled weather early into the
middle of next week thanks to an approaching Pacific storm
system. Southwesterly winds will begin to pick up Sunday night
along southern mountain peaks then spread into the eastern Plains
during the day Monday. Confidence is increasing that wind gusts
of 45-65 mph are possible from the southwest mountains to the
northeast highlands.


The incoming storm system will advect some Pacific moisture out
ahead of a well defined baroclinic zone. Brief heavy snowfall
rates creating difficult driving conditions are expected along a
cold front that will traverse the state from northwest to
southeast during the day on Monday. However, it will likely lose
its organization as it approaches the central mountain chain,
limiting precipitation chances east of there. Areas of blowing
snow that reduce visibility may develop where there are strong
winds in the southern mountains and in the lee of the central
mountain chain. Snowfall may continue on northwest mountain slopes
into Tuesday thanks to additional shortwave forcing, but dry
stable air may prevent any snow from developing.


Strong northwesterly winds will bring a much cooler airmass into
the state Monday night. Wind chills below -10 are possible Monday
and Tuesday nights in the northern mountains, with widespread
wind chills below 0 likely throughout western and northern New
Mexico. However, guidance does disagree on how long the breezy to
windy conditions will persist in northern and eastern New Mexico.
Ensemble guidance is beginning to trend towards another winter
storm impacting the area late next week, but confidence is low
this far out.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1031 AM MST Fri Dec 9 2022

Winds will strengthen across northeastern New Mexico this afternoon
with gusts of 25 to 35 kt impacting KLVS, KRTN and KCAO. Periodic
MVFR ceilings with patchy drizzle reducing visibility at times
along and east of a KROW to KTCC line. Any drizzle or sprinkles
will gradually shift eastward late this afternoon with drier air
moving in from the southwest overnight. Elsewhere, VFR conditions
will prevail with few-sct mid and high clouds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Dec 9 2022

Tranquil weather continues this weekend with major changes on tap
for Monday through next week. A cold and broad upper-level closed
low will send a stout cold front from west to east through NM
between Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning. Strong southwest winds
ahead of the front will likely result in areas of near critical to
localized critical conditions for areas east of the central mountain
chain Monday afternoon. Much colder air will push in Monday night
with mostly snow accompanying the front. Heavier snow accumulations
will favor west facing slopes of the western and northern mountains
Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Strong winds are forecast to
accompany the front with strong winds continuing behind the frontal
passage Tuesday and possibly into Tuesday night. Below to well below
average temperatures continue through all of next week before the
next storm system moves in late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  20  50  24  54 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  11  51  15  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  20  49  21  49 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  10  52  17  55 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  14  50  19  53 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  11  53  14  56 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  19  54  21  55 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  27  52  27  55 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  22  50  22  54 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  20  59  22  57 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  26  60  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  12  45  16  44 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  27  47  29  49 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  26  50  28  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  19  45  23  45 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................   8  44  13  42 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  -6  45   7  46 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  12  47  16  48 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  23  48  24  54 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  23  53  23  54 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  28  50  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  23  51  24  52 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  33  53  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  30  54  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  25  56  26  56 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  27  55  28  54 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  22  55  21  57 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  27  56  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  22  55  21  57 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  26  56  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  23  55  23  57 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  30  52  29  53 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  27  54  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  27  57  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  28  48  29  49 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  24  50  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  21  50  23  53 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  17  51  20  55 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  26  48  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  24  51  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  27  52  28  53 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  32  58  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  31  53  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  22  45  22  57 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  17  50  18  59 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  18  52  17  63 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  24  51  25  58 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  27  48  26  62 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  25  48  23  60 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  27  54  27  65 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  29  52  29  62 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  28  53  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  35  57  31  61 /   5   0   0   0
Portales........................  37  59  33  62 /   5   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  30  56  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  35  63  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  32  60  30  63 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  32  59  29  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...33


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