Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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520
FXUS65 KABQ 210840
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
240 AM MDT Mon Oct 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry northwest flow aloft will continue through mid-week. The flow
aloft will gradually relax with less wind showing up at the surface.
A storm forming in the northern Rockies will dive almost due south
later this week, delivering much colder air and finally some rain and
mountain snow Wednesday night through Thursday night. Just how much
we get is still a big question mark as the models are significantly
different. Friday and Saturday will be dry and milder. A strong
backdoor cold front will bring cooler temperatures to the east again
Sunday. A storm gathering strength over the Great Basin may impact NM
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Moderate northwest flow aloft will bring gusty winds to the area
again today, although not as strong as Sunday. There will be a wind
advisory issued for the southern Sangres and Temperatures will
remain cool, with everywhere below normal. Clear and chilly tonight
but not as cold as this morning. Winds will subside this evening.

The northwest flow will weaken some Tuesday and Wednesday, with the
surface winds lower. Temperatures will warm to normal Tuesday and
above normal Wednesday. A strong backdoor cold front will reach the
east Wednesday night.

A deepening trough of low pressure will drop from the northern
Rockies toward NM Thursday, while the strong backdoor cold front
continues to plow south and west. It should pour into the Rio Grande
Valley early Thursday morning. Temperatures will be much colder
Thursday, around 30 degrees lower in the east. We will have a decent
chance at some precipitation from Wednesday night through Thursday
night, focused mainly over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and
northwest. It will be snow in the mountains. The models are quite
different in the track of the storm and the amount of precipitation.
The GFS is much faster and weaker with the system with just a trough
swinging through Thursday. Meanwhile the CMC and ECMWF develop a
closed low near the four corners region Thursday and drop it south
Thursday night, before lifting the low northeast back over NM Friday.
We will keep a slight chance of precipitation in the southeast zones
through Friday.

Friday and Saturday will be milder and mostly dry. The next storm
will develop into a closed low in the Great Basin next Monday, while
another strong backdoor front roars through the east Sunday and
probably into central NM.

CHJ/40

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong northwest flow remains over NM with another round of elevated
northwest winds again this afternoon. Despite low Haines and MaxTs
several degrees below normal in the mid-60s, winds will be elevated
through east-central NM with critical RH where fine fuels are likely
to be susceptible to ignition and fire weather concerns today. Winds
are expected to taper off by the evening as the atmosphere decouples
again.

A steady warming trend is still in-store for Tue-Wed with only a
very modest increase in atmospheric moisture. Overall it will remain
dry as winds taper off compared to the last 24-36 hours. Another
storm system is progged to clip the CO Rockies early Thu sending
down a backdoor cold front through eastern NM. This will produce the
only good shot at precipitation through the work week with the
season`s first round of accumulating snow over the Sangre`s above
9500` and over the Raton Pass. The shot of Canadian air will also
force temperatures into a nose-dive with MaxTs across eastern NM
struggling into the 40s about 20-25F below normal. Temperatures
rebound for Fri.

RJH/24

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Winds have tapered off this evening but will increase again tomorrow
as northwest winds once again mix down to the sfc. NW gusts will peak
between 25 to 40 kts in the afternoon before again tapering off as
the atmosphere decouples Monday evening. Otherwise, VFR prevails with
few-sct200.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  58  29  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  56  19  61  24 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  55  29  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  61  23  66  27 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  59  26  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  62  25  66  28 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  61  30  66  34 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  61  30  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  73  40  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  49  19  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  55  34  61  39 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  55  30  61  38 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  51  23  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  43  19  53  22 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  46   9  55  19 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  55  17  61  25 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  52  22  61  30 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  60  29  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  54  33  59  39 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  58  28  62  35 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  61  37  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  64  38  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  67  35  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  66  36  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  67  33  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  63  37  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  73  38  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  56  37  60  42 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  59  36  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  61  25  66  32 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  57  29  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  62  34  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  67  38  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  62  35  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  54  24  60  33 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  59  21  65  29 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  59  21  64  29 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  58  26  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  61  30  64  39 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  60  27  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  68  30  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  66  32  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  68  32  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  65  34  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  69  33  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  68  32  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  75  40  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  70  39  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  69  36  71  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for
the following zones... NMZ512-514-523.

&&

$$

40/24



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