Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 181135
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
535 AM MDT Mon Jun 18 2018

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Areas of fog, locally dense, across far eastern portions of east
central NM, including KCVS and KCVN, will produce IFR and lower
conditions through mid morning. Otherwise, a dry southwest flow
aloft will bring mostly clear to clear skies and VFR conditions to
the region today through Tuesday morning. An area of surface low
pressure in southeastern CO this afternoon will generate south-
southwest to southwest wind gusts between 20 and 25 knots across
much of the region this afternoon. Winds will drop below 10 knots
this evening around sunset.

28

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MDT Mon Jun 18 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level ridge will build over Arizona this week, leaving New
Mexico under northwest flow aloft. This will allow a couple of
fronts to impact the east, with Tuesday night through Wednesday
night possibly seeing an upswing in shower and storm activity over
the eastern plains. The west will remain dry. Temperatures will be
near average this week with afternoon westerly breezes each day.
Westerly winds may strengthen Saturday due to a storm system
crossing the central Rockies but initially this system should sweep
out any lingering moisture, so any further precipitation looks to
hold off until next week, if then.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Dew points still ranging from the mid 30s to 40s west and central
and 50s and 60s east at this time. This should mix out this
afternoon in the west, as temperatures warm closer to average. The
low level moisture in the east looks to remain in place, and
although forecast instability isn`t very strong this afternoon, left
some 10-ish pops along the central mt chain and portions of the
eastern plains for this afternoon/evening. Also have some patchy fog
through mid morning with satellite imagery and obs indicating patchy
fog in the KCVN vicinity. Models also suggest the surface boundary
over srn CO at this time won`t be much of a factor today.

Models indicate a stronger boundary will reach northeast New Mexico
late Tuesday afternoon/evening, and locales east of the Pecos Valley
may see isolated convection. Chances for precipitation increase
Tuesday night, but moreso Wednesday night as a stronger boundary,
potentially convectively related, pushes into northeast and east
central New Mexico. So far, guidance does not tend to bring an east
wind into the RGV Wednesday night, so areas to our west should
remain dry. But that could change, depending how any convection in
the eastern plains develops.

The upper ridge over Arizona begins to be suppressed Thursday night
and moreso Friday as a trough/upper low evolve over the northern and
central Rockies. This forces drier air and westerly breezes over the
state Friday and Saturday. Saturday could be the windiest day of the
week, if the models are right, with potential for more widespread
critical fire weather conditions. The westerlies may relax somewhat
next Sunday, allowing a front and possibly thunderstorms to impact
the east. Thereafter, the upper high center regroups over New
Mexico. Both the GFS and ECMWF hint enough moisture will be trapped
under the ridge for a few higher terrain but mostly dry and gusty
storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large upper low over the interior Pacific Northwest early this
morning will move slowly eastward across ID today. Well to the south
of this system, southwest flow aloft across NM will continue to
bring very dry mid level air across the state. Temperatures today
will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than Sunday, and winds will be south
to southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Drier air will slowly mix down to the
surface today with minimum relative humidity falling to 10 to 15
percent west of the Continental Divide and to between 15 and 25
percent across the rest of the region.

Southwest winds will increase slightly Tuesday, as the base of the
upper low to the north moves eastward from UT into western CO. Drier
air will continue to slowly filter across NM from west to east
Tuesday with much of western NM seeing relative humidity fall into
the single digits and relative humidity across central NM falling
into the 10 to 20 percent range. Light southeast flow across eastern
NM will keep minimum relative humidity there in the 20 to 30 percent
range Tuesday. With the slight increase in wind speeds and lowering
relative humidity, a few hours of critical fire weather conditions
will be possible Tuesday afternoon in the Northeast Highlands.

A backdoor cold front will move into the northeast plains Tuesday
night and continue across the eastern plains on Wednesday. Moisture
behind the front will boost minimum relative humidity across the far
eastern plains into the 25 to 40 percent range Wednesday afternoon
with the adjacent highlands greater than 15 percent. To the west,
most of central NM and all of western NM will be very dry Wednesday
afternoon with minimum relative humidity near 10 percent west of the
Continental Divide and 10 to 15 percent eastward across central NM.
Winds will be less than 15 mph across the region Wednesday
afternoon, so the threat of critical fire weather conditions will be
low despite low relative humidity and higher Haines values across
western and central NM. Isolated to low-end scattered coverage of
showers and thunderstorms is expected across the eastern plains
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

As a strong upper level high will move eastward across southern CA
and AZ Thursday, a light northwest flow aloft will set up over NM.
Light winds are likely Thursday, and moisture which moved across the
eastern plains behind the cold front will remain in place across
eastern NM. Minimum relative humidity immediately east of the
central mountains will be near 20 percent and will increase to the
east to near 35 percent on the NM/TX border. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon and evening in the
Northeast Highlands and far eastern plains. Winds will continue to
be light Friday with dry weather expected across the entire area. An
upper level trough moving across CO Saturday will increase winds
across the area Saturday afternoon, and there could be a few hours
of critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Northeast
Highlands and Northeast Plains.

28

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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