Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 192327 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
527 PM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through the next 24 hours
with clear skies. Winds will diminish through the evening, becoming
light and variable with terrain driven drainage winds after midnight.
Winds will be much lower Tuesday with only moderate breezes at KLVS
with gusts near 20kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...233 PM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
After a windy and cooler day, a warming trend is forecast through the
remainder of the work week with much less wind under the influence of
high pressure. Daytime temperatures will be back above normal
areawide by Thursday or Friday. Windy and continued warm conditions
are forecast through the weekend and into Monday, followed by the
potential for precipitation and very windy conditions with a cold
front next Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A 55-65kt jet max rounding the southern edge of a potent upper low
moving east-to-west over northern CO continues to provide for windy
conditions through northern and central NM this afternoon. Vertical
mixing has brought these stronger winds down to lower elevations and
a few spots along and immediately east of the central mountain chain
are sporadically reaching wind advisory levels, 25 to 35 mph
sustained with an occasional gust to 45 mph. A surface low pressure
over eastern CO is also aiding the wind, however speeds are expected
to decline through the late afternoon and evening period. Thus will
continue with no wind advisory highlights. Both the jet max aloft
will exit the area and the surface pressure gradient through the
eastern plains will relax leaving behind light variable and terrain
driving drainage winds overnight.

Meanwhile, a weak ridge and nearly zonal flow passing over Wednesday
will push temperatures a few degrees warmer than today`s readings.
The exception will be the far eastern plains along the TX border
where a weak backdoor front will swing through tonight.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
The ridge will transition east across the Rockies and NM Thursday
into Friday, with temperatures reaching further above normal. Winds
will begin to pick up Friday afternoon with the ridge flattening and
shifting east, but will increase more over the weekend as the jet
stream dips south along the west coast and spreads inland in advance
of a potent upper level trough/low. Temperatures will continue above
normal through the weekend and into Monday. Both the 12Z GFS and
ECMWF operational runs show this trough progressing east across the
Desert SW toward NM Mon/Tue, but differ by roughly 12hrs in the
timing. Either way, it appears that we`ll be positioned near the base
of the trough, where the stronger winds aloft reside and next Tuesday
is looking very windy at this time with at least some potential for
precipitation.

24/11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and windy conditions have developed through the east-central and
northeastern plains, however humidity is holding well above critical
threshold. Winds relax overnight with a weak backdoor push bringing
a weak northerly to easterly wind shift along the Texas border. A
relaxed zonal flow takes hold through the rest of the week with the
forecast area at the base of a more amplified ridge well to the
north. This will provide for a general warming trend and poor to
good ventilation each day through the work week. Southwest winds
increase Saturday ahead of the next system skirting by.

24

$$

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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