Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 191725

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1125 AM MDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Conditions have improved to VFR across the entire area this morning,
as light north to northwest low level flow has brought drier air in
from the north. VRF conditions are expected through midday Saturday.
Few to scattered high clouds aoa 200, associated with a jet streak,
will move across central and eastern NM this afternoon and early this
evening, while portions of southeast NM will see scattered mid level
clouds. Skies will become clear across most of the region by mid
evening, except across the southeast plains, where scattered mid
level clouds will persist overnight and Saturday morning. A backdoor
cold front will move from the eastern plains late this morning to the
central mountains this evening. East gap winds will develop across
the Albuquerque area this evening with gusts between 20 to 25 knots
through 09Z. KLVS will have east southeast wind gusts to near 20
knots from mid afternoon today through late this evening. Otherwise,
winds will be light across the area this afternoon through midday
Saturday with speeds generally less than 10 knots.



.PREV DISCUSSION...329 AM MDT Fri Oct 19 2018...
High temperatures will trend upward a few to around 20 degrees most
places today as drier air arrives from the north enabling sunshine to
return. Nonetheless, readings will remain a few to 13 degrees below
normal. Slightly cooler air will invade eastern areas Saturday as a
surface high pressure system settles over the Texas and Oklahoma
panhandles. The cooling will continue and spread further west Sunday
as the high sags southward over eastern New Mexico. An upper level
trough will pass slowly eastward over the central and southern
Rockies during the first half of next week with a chance for rain
showers, thunderstorms and very high terrain snow showers.
Precipitation will favor locations along and south of I-40 Sunday,
then areas west of the Rio Grande Monday, before becoming widespread
Monday night through Tuesday night. Showers will linger along and
east of the continental divide on Wednesday as the system gradually
exits the region. A secondary upper level trough will cross quickly
on the heels of the first keeping a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast along and east of the central mountain
chain Thursday. The weather systems will keep temperatures below
normal through the work week ahead.


Sunshine will return today and Saturday, except for lingering clouds
and a few light showers across the southern extremes of the forecast
area today.

An upper level low pressure system will develop over the California
coast today, then weaken as it shifts inland over the Great Basin
Sunday night, before crossing the central and southern Rockies as an
upper level trough Tuesday through Wednesday. Short waves will begin
ejecting northeastward from the base of the upper level trough and
across NM Saturday night and Sunday with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms. The system will draw a moist southeasterly return flow
of low level moisture into NM to feed the precipitation. The return
flow and precipitation will be accompanied by mostly cloudy skies
again across the southeast half of the forecast area by Sunday. Then
the main wave of precipitation will cross from the west Monday
through Wednesday. Models have decreased the QPF with the storm
system with the mountains and southeast third of the forecast area
being favored for a quarter to a half inch of rain, and lighter
amounts elsewhere. Although temperatures will remain below normal
through the event, it will be a warmer system overall. The snow level
is expected to remain above 10,000 feet.



Thick clouds and patchy fog this morning will clear the state as
drier high pressure builds into the region. Temperatures will warm
slightly below normal under mostly sunny skies today into Saturday.
Ventilation will be poor to perhaps fair over a large beneath the
area of high pressure. A weak back door front moving across eastern
NM today will generate light to moderate gap winds in the Rio Grande
Valley tonight.

The next low pressure system will take shape over the Great Basin
Saturday night and draw up another batch of rain for southeastern NM
Sunday. Low pressure will drift northeast into the central Rockies
and keep weather conditions unsettled over NM Monday and Tuesday.
Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will push northeast over
the area with widespread wetting rainfall likely. Snow levels will
remain above 11,000` with this system. Ventilation will remain poor
to locally fair for much of the area during this period.

A couple more weak weather disturbances will attempt to pass quickly
through NM Wednesday and Thursday with mainly isolated showers. A
dry northwest flow pattern is expected in the wake of these systems
toward the end of the week when ventilation may finally improve.





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