Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 100543 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1043 PM MST Sun Dec 9 2018

Through the remainder of the overnight hours, fog and low clouds
will be the primary aviation weather concerns, lasting into Monday
morning. Very low visibility in dense fog is already plaguing KROW in
southeastern New Mexico, and this is not expected to erode until late
Monday morning. Low stratus clouds are slowly returning to the
northwestern part of the state near KFMN, and could develop in some
west central areas of the state tonight toward KGUP and KGNT, but
confidence is lower here. Elsewhere mostly VFR conditions will
prevail. Low stratus and fog will erode by late Monday morning and
early afternoon with thick high clouds moving in from the west.



.PREV DISCUSSION...530 PM MST Sun Dec 9 2018...
A freezing fog advisory was just issued for the Chaves county plains
to account for the very low visibility (less than one quarter of a
mile) that has already occurred. Technically, the temperatures at
ROW are at 33 degrees, above freezing, but feel that it is prudent to
go ahead with the freezing fog advisory, as temperatures should fall
below freezing within a couple to a few hours. Temperatures in the
Chaves county plains were also tweaked, and sky coverage was boosted
in this area, as well as the northwest and west central areas.
Freezing fog will also return to these northwestern and west central
zones, but confidence in the very dense (less than one quarter mile
visibility) is not that high for these areas just yet. This will be
monitored throughout the evening and overnight.



.PREV DISCUSSION...225 PM MST Sun Dec 9 2018...
Sunny skies with warming temperatures are forecast to continue
through Monday, with the exception of some more freezing fog again
Monday morning for those areas that saw it Sunday morning. High
clouds will begin to move over western New Mexico Monday evening and
through the day Tuesday. The next weather system will struggle to
bring precipitation to the state late Tuesday into Wednesday, but a
few showers with light snow accumulations could find there way over
the northern high terrain. Temperatures will be well above normal for
the northeast plains Tuesday where highs could reach into the low
60s, depending how thick the cloud cover will be. Another, colder,
storm system quickly moves down the Rockies into New Mexico Thursday
bringing a bit better chance for snow and afternoon rain at lower
elevations to the northeast third of the state. Colder temperatures
will follow in its wake to end the week, steadily warming back up next


Tonight...Colder MinTs are on-tap tonight thanks to efficient
radiational cooling from clear skies and calm BL winds. Another round
of freezing fog is likely for those areas that saw it this morning;
northwest plateau and highlands, Moreno Valley, and southeast plains.

Monday...A ridge begins to build into the region Monday with a mid-
level tap of moisture from the subtropics riding into the western
and northern side of the ridge axis. This will act to increase sky
coverage from high cirrus, and will likely put a damper on warming
across the western half of the state. Meanwhile, a mid-level low over
the Great Plains will slide SE into the ArkLATex region pulling sfc
winds out of the west over the east plains of NM. This will have some
downslope warming effect allowing highs to warm several to 10F
Monday from today.

Tuesday...Disagreement remains with the next system rolling in
Tuesday into Wednesday, however model trends continue to weaken and
move the trough further north. The one consistency remains that this
system looks to be moisture starved when it arrives, limiting any
wetting precip. to the northern high terrain Tue night. W/SW winds
are still expected to be breezy for the east plains where highs will
likely be well above normal, however high clouds are bringing some
uncertainty to how high they will go.

Wed-Thu...Wednesday is now looking to be a transition day from the
Tue/Tue night system to the Thu system. While there remains
considerable differences with the strength of this system, it also
looks to be moisture starved with wetting precip. being limited to
the northern high terrain and NE plains. The stronger GFS solution
would bring much stronger W/NW sfc winds through the state.

NW flow will set up behind this 2nd system with colder temperatures
to end the week, warming back up through the weekend.



Low clouds have been slow to diminish today across northwest NM, and
they should be quick to redevelop tonight. Good to excellent
relative humidity recoveries are expected.

The warming trend will continue into Tuesday. On Monday, the upper
level ridge axis will shift over NM, and temperatures will continue
to warm for most areas, despite the poor mixing. Ventilation rates
will improve on Tuesday as west-southwest flow increases in advance
of the next trough, though poor vent rates are still likely across
much of the lower elevations.

Models are still at odds with the trough/low that will move over the
state Tuesday night, but regardless of model solution, the system
appears to be moisture starved, and little, if any, precipitation is
expected. Temperatures will cool a few degrees across all but the
far east central plains on Wednesday.

Models still have a northern stream trough diving down and clipping
northeast NM on Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  The ECMWF
shows a weaker system than the GFS and Canadian, but it does look
like it will get much colder for Thursday following the passage of a
cold front, with highs a few degrees below normal. Wind speeds will
increase as well, perhaps dramatically if the GFS is correct. Any
precipitation with this system would be favored across north central
and northeast NM, though the ECMWF has scaled back QPF down to
nothing on this latest run. Thus, still some details to be ironed
out. Much drier conditions expected for the end of the work week
which will lead to strong nighttime inversions.

Mainly good ventilation rates are expected Wednesday. Poor to fair
vent rates are expected Thursday across the west, but good to
excellent rates are expected from the central mountain chain
eastward. Poor vent rates will return on Friday.



Freezing Fog Advisory until 11 AM MST Monday for the following
zones... NMZ538.


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