Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 192325 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
425 PM MST Sun Jan 19 2020

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period with light winds, although with lowering VFR cigs.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MST Sun Jan 19 2020...
.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather underneath building high pressure will continue
through Monday, ahead of a storm system forecast to bring widespread
rain with snow above 6000 feet to most areas Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Colder air will push into western and central portions of the
state Wednesday with mountain snow showers lingering mainly north and
west. A reinforcing shot of colder air is expected to drop southward
out of the Colorado on Thursday along with the chance for snow
showers in the northern mountains. A slow warming trend remains on
tap for next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
A ridge of high pressure will cross from the west tonight and
Monday. High clouds will also increase on Monday ahead of an upper
level trough approaching from the southwest. The increasing cloud
cover will hold Monday`s high temperatures near today`s readings
along and west of the central mountain chain, but readings should
climb a few to 5 degrees warmer farther east. The upper trough will
begin to spread rain and snow showers over western NM late Monday
night.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
GFS is slowly coming in-line with a wetter/snowier Tuesday. A 145 kt
sub- tropical jet stream will not only bring plentiful moisture but
the necessary atmospheric lift to generate widespread rain and snow
above about 6000 feet to most areas Tuesday and Tuesday night. At
this point, the western and northern mountains will be the favored
areas for accumulating snow with 3-6" the mostly likely amount above
7000 feet with locally up to a foot possible on Mt. Taylor, the
northwest Jemez (San Pedro Peaks area) along with the Tusas Mountains
east of Chama and Tierra Amarilla. Models now hinting that orographic
snows will likely continue on west facing slopes for most mountain
ranges Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, adding another couple of
inches to Tuesday`s totals. Not anticipating this storm system to be
highly impactful (will forgo a winter storm watch) but a couple of
inches of snow along I-40 between Gallup and Grants, on I-25 between
La Baja Hill and Las Vegas, along Highway 550 from near Cuba to
Nageezi could bring some travel headaches.

ECWMF has trended toward the GFS and now the NAM-12 with regard to
an upper- level trough moving southeast through the Central Rockies
Wednesday night into Thursday. Colder air is forecast to push into
the forecast area Thursday, lingering into Friday. A gradual warm-up
remains on tap for next weekend but high temperatures will remain
near seasonal averages for mid to late January.

The active pattern continues beyond next weekend with both the GFS
and ECWMF bringing another trough southeastward either through CA or
the western Great Basin during the last week of the month.

44/33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A ridge of high pressure will cross from the west tonight and
Monday. High clouds will also increase on Monday ahead of an upper
level trough approaching from the southwest. The increasing cloud
cover will hold Monday`s high temperatures near today`s readings
along and west of the central mountain chain, but readings should
climb a few to 5 degrees warmer farther east.

The upper trough will spread rain and snow showers across the fire
weather forecast area from the west late Monday night through
Tuesday. A Pacific cold front will also cross from the west on
Tuesday dropping temperatures below normal areawide. Despite the
front, the snow level should lift above 7500 feet on Tuesday
afternoon. Lower elevations of the northwest may get a dusting of
snow Tuesday morning; otherwise, a few to several inches of snow
will favor locations above 8000 feet in the northern and western
mountains, with a few inches in the central mountains.

Rain and snow showers will continue Tuesday night and Wednesday,
especially in the west, as a second and drier upper level trough
crosses from the west. The mountains will be favored for a few
inches of additional snow accumulation. Breezy northwest winds are
expected on Wednesday as the flow aloft strengthens.

A third upper trough exiting the northern and central Rockies onto
the upper Great Plains may produce some light additional snow
accumulation across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, northeast and
east central plains Wednesday night and Thursday. After a little
warming Wednesday, temperatures will cool below normal again
Thursday and Friday thanks to a gusty front that will drop southward
through the state on Thursday. Temperatures will rebound on Saturday
as a ridge of high pressure crosses the Rocky Mountain states.

Poor ventilation will be widespread until the winds pickup Wednesday
and Thursday. Then, vent rates should become poor again on Friday
and Saturday.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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