477
FXUS65 KABQ 120912
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
312 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Dry, breezy and hot conditions will be the rule today through
Saturday. Moisture will increase quickly on Sunday, allowing for
showers and thunderstorms to develop across central and western
NM. Storms will continue across New Mexico Monday before
diminishing from west to east on Tuesday. Gusty winds and heavy
rainfall will be possible with these storms. Temperatures also
tumble back to near or below normal thanks to the cloud cover and
precipitation. Drier conditions return on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 226 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Dry southwest winds will become breezy today over northern and west
central parts of the forecast area as the flow aloft strengthens in
response to an upper level low pressure system crossing the northern
Rockies. Peak gusts will probably reach around 40 mph in the
afternoon across the northeast highlands and around Gallup, where
very low humidity and locally critical fire weather conditions are
expected. The upper low will exit northeastward over Canada by
Friday allowing the flow aloft to weaken over NM, but winds will
still be gusty across much of the forecast area; especially across
northeast areas where peak gusts will probably reach 35 mph. High
temperatures today and Friday will vary from near to around 11
degrees above 1991-2020 averages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 226 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Quiet conditions continue Friday night with quasi-zonal flow
overhead. These quiet conditions will persist for much of the day
on Saturday. However, a few high based showers and maybe a
thunderstorm will be possible across the southern high terrain as
modest mid and high level moisture peel off a tropical system over
the Gulf of California and shift over southern NM. Confidence is
low that it will be much more than virga and gusty winds though.
While the tropical system itself will shift eastward south of NM,
an early season upper low will organize and dive southward along
the CA coast on Sunday. As it does so, sub-tropical moisture will
rapidly increase over NM Sunday. In fact, PWATs will increase
from around 0.4-0.5" Saturday to 0.7-1.0" Sunday. A weak shortwave
embedded within the larger system will eject northeastward on
Sunday over NM which will help kick off isolated to scattered
thunderstorms mainly across western and central NM. Meanwhile, the
main upper low will deepen to near 555dam by Monday morning over
central CA. This system will start to shift eastward Monday
afternoon over the Great Basin and the additional lift provided
plus above normal PWATs will yield another round of scattered
thunderstorms. Gusty winds and heavy rain will be possible with
these storms though storm motions will be quite quick. Thus,
flooding will only be likely if training storms occur. The system
will eject northeastward on Tuesday toward ID/MT while drier air
punches into NM from west to east. Storms that develop over NW NM
in the morning will quickly shift northeastward, and by Tuesday
afternoon any remaining storms will be focused across eastern NM.
Could see a few strong and perhaps a severe storm near the Texas
border. Wednesday looks to be dry for most areas, though isolated
storms can`t be ruled out near the Texas border once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 PM MDT Wed Sep 11 2024

VFR conditions are forecast for at least the next 24 hours.
Southwest winds will become breezy today with gusts up to 40 KT
over northern and west central areas in the afternoon until
sunset. There will probably also be noticeable haze over western
and north central NM due to wildfires in southern CA and along
the Mogollon Rim in UT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 2024

An upper level low pressure system crossing the northern Rockies
will strengthen the flow aloft over NM today, while steering very
dry air over the fire weather forecast area. Minimum humidities will
drop near and below 15 percent in most lower elevation locations,
while winds gust up to 40 mph across northern and west central
areas.  Critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of
the northeast highlands this afternoon, but ERC`s are only forecast
to be around 45-60 percent there, with low fire danger, precluding
the need for a Red Flag Warning. ERC`s will be around 85 percent in
the Gallup area this afternoon, but low fire danger and the
localized coverage of critical conditions will preclude the need for
a Red Flag Warning there as well. After high temperatures vary from
near to around 11 degrees above 1991-2020 averages today and Friday,
a low pressure system digging over the west coast will draw
subtropical moisture northeastward over over the forecast area this
weekend into early next week with higher humidities and cooler
temperatures.  Highs will fall near to around 6 degrees below 30-
year averages over central and western areas by Monday and Tuesday,
while eastern readings remain as much as 8 degrees above the
averages. The potential exists for wetting precipitation mainly over
central and western areas Sunday through Monday, with spottier
wetting precip possible further east.  A low pressure system
crossing the northern and central Rockies on Tuesday will strengthen
southwest winds over the forecast area, and steer drier air into the
state with decreasing precipitation chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  87  53  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  84  41  81  41 /   0   5   0   0
Cuba............................  85  48  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  85  45  83  42 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  82  46  80  45 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  87  47  85  43 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  83  48  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  85  55  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  82  48  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  87  48  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  91  59  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  77  42  75  40 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  82  57  80  56 /   0   5   0   0
Pecos...........................  81  53  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  78  48  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  68  43  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  73  35  73  28 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  82  46  81  40 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  79  47  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  90  55  88  51 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  83  57  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  87  55  85  49 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  90  62  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  92  59  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  94  57  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  92  61  90  58 /   0   5   0   0
Belen...........................  94  56  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  94  59  91  57 /   0   5   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  93  55  90  54 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  94  60  91  56 /   0   5   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  93  57  90  55 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  90  59  86  56 /   0   5   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  93  60  90  58 /   0   5   0   0
Socorro.........................  96  60  93  59 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  83  54  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  86  56  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  86  52  84  50 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  87  49  85  44 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  83  52  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  85  53  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  85  52  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  88  60  87  60 /   0   0   0   5
Ruidoso.........................  81  56  80  54 /   0   0   5   5
Capulin.........................  82  51  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  86  48  86  46 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  87  48  87  46 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  84  49  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  87  59  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  87  55  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  94  58  93  56 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  91  55  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  93  60  95  58 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  95  61  97  61 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  95  62  98  60 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  93  57  94  59 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  99  63 100  63 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  93  59  92  60 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  90  56  91  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...42