Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 102346
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
546 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Strong upper level high pressure centered over southern NM with dry
air across much of central and western NM has led to another meager
crop of -SHRA/TSRA today. Isold storms across far eastern NM late
this afternoon will move east into TX before dissipating after 03Z.
Another relatively quiet day is in store Tuesday with hot and dry
conditions at most terminals. The main focus for a few storms will
be across far eastern NM once again aft 21Z.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...255 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020...
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and hot weather remains the theme for the area unfortunately.
Isolated storms will favor far eastern NM near the TX border today
and Tuesday before quickly moving east. Near record to record heat
will be present through much of the eastern plains, notably Roswell
between now and Thursday. Some hope for showers and storms arrives
into southwestern NM Wednesday and Thursday, but most of this
activity will be dry in nature producing more wind than
precipitation. Dry and hot conditions continue Friday into the
weekend with isolated to scattered storms possible over the northern
mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
A circular area of high pressure with the high center between the
boot heel of NM and El Paso will move very little through Tuesday
night. It will strengthen a little, keeping convection mostly capped.
There will be a few showers and thunderstorms on the eastern plains
this evening, with rainfree conditions tonight through midday
Wednesday. There will be a weak back door front into the northeast
tonight, but it does not advance as much as models have been showing
the past couple of days. It will act as a focus for isolated showers
and storms Tuesday afternoon in the far northeast. Elsewhere will be
dry and hot with several near record or record-breaking high
temperatures. The Albuquerque Valley is one place a record high will
be challenged. Tuesday night will be dry and mild.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
Wednesday and Thursday will see well above normal heat continue with
near record heat likely through most of eastern NM. If this trend
holds true, a heat advisory will need to be thought about for Chaves
County where daytime highs will reach to near 105F at Roswell.
Overall, the H5 high remains over southern NM with some moisture
trying to work into southwestern NM. This mid-level moisture will be
enough to produce dry thunderstorms over the Gila up to I-40. Gusty
outflow winds and dry lightning will be the main concern with this
activity.

Significant differences in model PWAT exist between the GFS and ECMWF
during this timeframe. The GFS is more robust with the advection of
moisture into southwestern NM resulting in PWATs at ABQ near 1.00",
whereas the latest ECMWF is less robust resulting in below normal
moisture ranging from 0.50"-0.70". The 12Z ECMWF is actually an
uptick from the 00Z which was depicting record low PWAT of
0.30"-0.40".

The near record heat continues Friday and Saturday as the upper high
begins to migrate further west over AZ. Moisture remains starved for
mid-August. There is still some hope for the aforementioned moisture
being brought into southwest NM to progress further north during
this time producing isolated to scattered storms over the northern
mountains moving east over the far northeastern NM. Given the
discrepancy in moisture advection numerical models are showing, storm
coverage and intensity remains a question so stay tuned to how this
aspect of the forecast evolves. The upper high looks to set up shop
over the Four Corners region Sunday heading into early next week,
favoring backdoor fronts bringing cooler weather and better moisture
into parts of eastern NM.

CHJ/RJH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure over southern NM will continue to bring dry, hot and
unstable air to NM the next couple of days. The only shower or
thunderstorm activity will be on the eastern plains this evening,
the far northeast Tuesday afternoon and the Gila region Wednesday.
Moisture west of the high center will rotate around the upper high
and into NM Thursday and Friday. This will allow for an increase in
convection. The upper high will shift west into AZ, exposing eastern
NM to short wave troughs and back door fronts. This will make the
east active with plenty of showers and thunderstorms this weekend
into early next week. Hopefully some of the moisture will spill into
the RGV and help trigger a storm or two. Highs will be above to well
above normal, with record highs in jeopardy. Widespread moderate to
high Haines the next couple of days will gradually lower. Good to
excellent vent rates are forecast into the weekend.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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