Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 161142 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
542 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period, although short-lived MVFR conditions are possible in/near
convection later this afternoon/evening across eastern NM. The main
aviation weather-related hazard today will be strong/erratic wind
gusts associated with fairly high-based showers and storms. KABQ
will likely be impacted between 23-05Z, but limited gusts to 35kts
for now.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...258 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system over the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles will
help generate afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms today,
especially along and east of the Sangre de Cristo and Sandia and
Manzano Mountains. Similar conditions return Monday as another weak
storm system approaches from the west. Drier and warmer air begins
to move in from the west on Tuesday with showers and storms confined
to areas near the Colorado border. Isolated thunderstorms shift to
eastern New Mexico Wednesday with dry conditions expected Thursday
and Friday. High temperatures will gradually climb a degree or two
each day with triple-digit heat becoming fairly widespread across
eastern NM both Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Closed upper low ended up being quite a bit farther south than progged
24 hours ago. The low is over the OK/TX panhandles as of this writing
but is not expected to change the sensible weather for NM today or
tomorrow. Still expecting a bit of an uptick over yesterday`s convective
activity but without the severe potential in eastern NM. Cool low-
level northeasterly winds will keep the threat of severe weather well
east of NM today until southeasterly return flow develops Monday.
Monday continues to look like the most overall active day of the next
seven as a difluent upper-level flow combines with sufficient low
and mid- level moisture to produce scattered convection over mountain
ranges north of I-40 (drifting out over the lower elevations to the
northeast) with severe weather potential east of the central mountain
chain north of I-40.

Drier air on westerly flow aloft begins winning out most areas
Tuesday. The one exception will be near the CO line where a short-
wave trough in northwest flow aloft and an associated surface cold
front get scattered showers and storms going there.

Models remain in good agreement for Wednesday, bringing a weak
short-wave trough in northwest flow aloft through northeast NM.
Expect at least several strong to severe storms from the east slopes
of the Sangres eastward Wedesday afternoon and evening with dry
conditons elsewhere. GFS and ECWMF agree that zonal flow moves over
for Thursday. High temperatures climb up several degrees in the lower
elevations as a result. Thursday continues to look like the hottest
day of the next seven with triple digit heat expected for the lower
elevations of the east.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moisture is on the upswing across the area and will result in daily
rounds of mostly wetting storms and high temperatures below normal
through at least Monday, although southwest portions of the area
will remain warm, fairly dry and unstable.

A warming/drying trend will begin Tuesday and continue through the
end of the work week, with daytime temperatures rising above normal
areawide by Thursday. The westerlies will trend up as well, with the
atmosphere becoming increasingly unstable. By Friday, Haines values
of 6 will prevail across the entire area. More widespread critical
fire weather conditions are possible by Friday as well, through
winds may be a limiter. The potential for critical fire weather
conditions may extend into the weekend as well, but the latest
medium range model solutions differ significantly by that forecast
projection.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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