Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 012329 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
529 PM MDT Fri Nov 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 525 PM MDT Fri Nov 1 2024

 - Locally heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and strong to severe
   storms are possible in eastern and southeastern NM late Friday
   through mid-day Saturday.

 - A storm system will bring colder temperatures and the first
   noteworthy snow of the season to the northern and western
   mountains Sunday through Monday.

 - A colder storm system may impact the region late Wednesday
   through Friday, bringing more widespread precipitation with
   lower snow levels.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 322 PM MDT Fri Nov 1 2024

Southeast New Mexico will have an active evening with multiple
rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms are
possible overnight and into the early morning. Locally heavy
rainfall of over two inches tonight could lead to the possibility of
flash flooding in Chaves, Curry and Roosevelt counties. Wintery
conditions look to arrive Sunday night and Monday with colder
temperatures and snow for western NM and the higher terrain of
northern and central NM. Another stronger system late in the week
looks to bring more widespread freezing temperatures and snow to
the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 322 PM MDT Fri Nov 1 2024

Strong moisture advection is underway in eastern New Mexico out
ahead of a weak trough in the sub-tropical jet stream. Upper-level
divergence aloft will increase this evening as the SW/NE oriented
jet max intensifies and pushes eastward. Strong moisture advection
combined with lift associated with this jet streak will lead to the
development of clusters of storms across the southeast plains this
evening. Gulf moisture will surge PWATs to above the 99.5" for this
time of year so rainfall rates will be seasonably efficient. Ample
elevated instability will favor large clusters of showers and storms
and the constant influx of low-level moisture from the southeast
will help new storms continuously generate along a convergence zone.
The exact placement of this convergence zone will determine exactly
which locations get very heavy rainfall. Some models show the
boundary as far west as Roswell, however the general agreement among
HREF members is that it will be further southeast along a line from
Artesia to Caprock. Rainfall totals will generally range from 0.5-
1.5" across the broader eastern plains, but HREF 6-hour max
precipitation suggests 4-6" are possible at the southerly initiation
point of the convergence zone. If this worst case scenario pans out
over Roswell, significant flash flooding is possible once again.
However, as previously mentioned, model guidance is trending towards
keeping the heaviest rainfall out of Roswell. Elevated convection,
and the associated flash flood threat, will continue all the way
through sunrise. Flood waters can be very difficult to see at
nighttime so its best to stay off the roads tonight if at all
possible in southeastern NM.

There will be sufficient instability for large hail, but small hail
between the size of peas and pennies will be favored with this kind
of set-up. The threat of damaging winds will be slightly higher than
that of hail since brief wet microbursts are likely to occur with
stronger storms that will be embedded within larger clusters.

Any break in activity tomorrow morning will be short-lived because
another round of storms will develop over the same areas Saturday
afternoon. The overall coverage will be lower, but the Flash Flood
Watch may need to be extended through Saturday evening if heavy
rainfall does occur tonight and early Saturday. Drier air
overrunning the moist airmass at the surface will result in higher
instability tomorrow so the hail threat may actually be a tad
higher. This drier air will eventually take over Saturday evening,
allowing the region to dry out. After that, all eyes turn to a storm
system approaching from the west. More on that in the long-term
discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 322 PM MDT Fri Nov 1 2024

A deepening upper level trough will enter the region on Sunday and
increase precipitation chances for the Four Corners. As the trough
digs into the state on Sunday, an upper low will form over the
northern part of NM. Winter conditions are likely for western and
northern New Mexico with the higher terrain in central NM seeing the
first snowfall of the season. 700mb temperatures will rapidly
decrease  from west to east from Sunday through Monday. As a result
snow levels will dip to below 7,000 feet for most of the state on
Sunday night and perhaps even lower on Monday morning. The Sandias
and Manzano mountains could see their first snow fall before sunrise
on Monday morning as well. Precipitation chances will persist later
into the day for northern and northeastern New Mexico, with the
highest forecasted snow amounts for the Sangre De Cristo mountains.
A backdoor cold front on monday morning could reinforce snow fall
totals for the Sangre de Cristo Mountains.

After the system pulls out of New Mexico on Tuesday, a brief period
of benign weather and more zonal WSW flow until the next upper level
low enters the area on Wednesday evening through Thursday. There is
some uncertainty with the exact timing of this system and its
strength, but current guidance show it to be stronger than the
system earlier in the week. Current probabilistic cluster analysis
shows some model members producing a closed low over the Desert
Southwest as opposed to a more open wave pattern. However, current
guidance indicates this system will bring more widespread cold
temperatures and precipitation, including snow.

Overall, high temperatures look to be as much as 15 degrees below
average throughout the state with these two winter systems.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM MDT Fri Nov 1 2024

VFR prevails with increasing southwesterly winds Saturday
afternoon thru central and western NM. Abundant low-level Gulf
moisture advancing northward into eastern NM will provide for
widespread showers and thunderstorms and IFR/MVFR ceilings tonight
thru much of Saturday. Showers reaching KROW expected to begin 03Z
to 04Z with best chances for thunderstorm activity b/w 04Z to 12Z
with continued showers and low ceiling impacts thru Saturday
morning. Showers expected to reach KCVN and KTCC tonight, with
best chances for thunderstorm activity b/w 05Z to 12Z. Low clouds
may not burn off entirely over east-central and southeastern NM
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 PM MDT Fri Nov 1 2024

Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are possible in southeastern New
Mexico this evening through Saturday evening. While central and
northeastern areas will remain mostly dry, humidity recoveries will
be better thanks to southeasterly moisture advection. A Fall storm
will impact the area Sunday afternoon through early Tuesday morning,
bringing breezy winds, increased valley rain/mountain snow chances,
and colder temperatures. Several inches of snow are likely above
8,000ft in the western and northern high terrain and rain/snow mix
could occur as low as 5,000ft in central and western valleys.
Another, colder Pacific storm system could impact the area Thursday
and Friday. There may be a backdoor front associated with this storm
system, which could create some gusty east to northeast winds in
central and eastern areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  33  65  38  51 /   0   0  20  50
Dulce...........................  20  64  28  46 /   0   0  20  50
Cuba............................  31  62  33  46 /   0   0  10  70
Gallup..........................  22  63  30  47 /   0   0  30  80
El Morro........................  32  62  32  44 /   0   0  20  80
Grants..........................  25  67  30  49 /   0   0  10  70
Quemado.........................  29  63  33  48 /   0   0  20  70
Magdalena.......................  39  66  38  54 /   0   0   0  50
Datil...........................  33  63  32  49 /   0   0   5  60
Reserve.........................  25  67  32  51 /   0   0  10  70
Glenwood........................  40  70  42  55 /   0   0  20  70
Chama...........................  25  58  25  42 /   0   0  20  50
Los Alamos......................  40  60  38  49 /   0   0  10  40
Pecos...........................  37  62  36  50 /   5  10   5  30
Cerro/Questa....................  33  59  31  46 /   0   0   5  20
Red River.......................  28  50  26  39 /   0   0   0  20
Angel Fire......................  19  56  22  44 /   0   5   0  20
Taos............................  28  62  28  50 /   0   0   5  20
Mora............................  31  61  30  51 /   5  10   5  20
Espanola........................  30  68  32  55 /   0   0   5  30
Santa Fe........................  40  62  38  51 /   5   5   5  30
Santa Fe Airport................  35  65  35  54 /   0   5   5  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  45  69  44  56 /   0   0   5  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  38  70  42  58 /   0   0   5  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  35  72  41  60 /   0   0   5  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  39  69  43  58 /   0   0   5  40
Belen...........................  32  72  39  62 /   0   0   0  30
Bernalillo......................  36  71  40  58 /   0   0   5  40
Bosque Farms....................  30  72  38  60 /   0   0   5  30
Corrales........................  37  71  41  58 /   0   0   5  40
Los Lunas.......................  33  72  40  61 /   0   0   0  30
Placitas........................  42  68  42  56 /   0   0   5  40
Rio Rancho......................  38  69  42  57 /   0   0   5  40
Socorro.........................  39  74  42  63 /   0   0   0  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  38  63  37  51 /   0   0   5  30
Tijeras.........................  40  66  38  54 /   0   0   5  30
Edgewood........................  32  67  33  55 /   0   5   0  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  25  69  31  57 /   5   5   0  30
Clines Corners..................  36  62  34  54 /  10  10   0  20
Mountainair.....................  35  66  36  55 /   0   5   0  30
Gran Quivira....................  36  66  36  56 /   0   5   0  30
Carrizozo.......................  45  69  44  59 /  20  10   0  20
Ruidoso.........................  43  64  41  53 /  40  20   0  20
Capulin.........................  37  59  35  56 /   5   5   0   0
Raton...........................  31  63  31  59 /   0   5   0   0
Springer........................  31  65  33  61 /   5  10   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  35  61  34  55 /  10  20   0  10
Clayton.........................  48  63  45  65 /  30  20  10   0
Roy.............................  41  61  39  60 /  30  20   5   0
Conchas.........................  50  67  45  68 /  50  40   5   0
Santa Rosa......................  49  66  44  65 /  40  40   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  53  68  48  69 /  70  60  10   0
Clovis..........................  54  66  49  69 /  90  90  20   0
Portales........................  55  67  51  70 /  90  90  20   0
Fort Sumner.....................  53  67  48  68 /  70  60   5   0
Roswell.........................  58  70  48  71 /  90  60   5   0
Picacho.........................  48  70  42  64 /  60  30   0  10
Elk.............................  45  72  40  60 /  60  30   0  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Saturday morning for NMZ235-236-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...24