Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 250018 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
553 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Shower and thunderstorm activity has remained more limited early this
evening, but cells will still be scattered in west central to
southwestern and south central parts of New Mexico through midnight.
Thunderstorms will produce brief downpours with gusty downburst
winds. A moist cold front will arrive into northeastern New Mexico
through midday Saturday, bringing increased shower and thunderstorm
activity while additional storms favor the southwestern and south
central high terrain in the afternoon. Storms will be capable of
producing much heavier downpours on Saturday, especially in
northeastern areas of the state where MVFR ceilings/visibilities may
be an issue for a few hours. Rain and storms may survive into
Saturday night with scattered areas of more prolonged MVFR to IFR



.PREV DISCUSSION...336 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022...
Partly cloudy weather with isolated showers and thunderstorms
tonight will give way to a more active weather Saturday. A cold front
dropping into northeast New Mexico will act as a trigger to get
thunderstorms to fire along and near the east slopes of the Sangre de
Cristo, Sandia, Manzano, Gallinas and Sacramento mountains Saturday
afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall along with the potential for flash
flooding is possible. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
along with cool conditons are forecast Sunday. A bit of a late start
to shower and thunderstorm activity is expected Monday with a slight
downtrend in storm coverage forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday.


Monsoon plume still situated over western and central NM, bringing
scattered afternoon storms to the southwestern and south-central
mountains today. Dry mid-level air is still encroaching into the
Four Corners area and northern NM, where more isolated shower/storm
activity is the rule through the rest of today. The 12Z morning
sounding showed a continued downtrend in PWATs to 0.91", still high,
but not as impressive as in recent days.

While Saturday sees more scattered to numerous afternoon storms
across the western and south-central high terrain, a backdoor
frontal boundary will enter far northeastern NM late in the day.
This boundary will be the trigger point for more numerous to
widespread storms along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
late Saturday through Saturday evening. This will put a heightened
risk for flash flooding over the Hermit`s Peak/Calf Canyon and
Cook`s Peak burn scars. As such, a Flood Watch for the threat
of flash flooding on these burn scars will be laid out with this
forecast package. Localized amounts of 0.50"-1.00" will be possible
from any individual storm. Numerical model guidance is showing
thunderstorm activity lasting the longest over the northern
mountains through Saturday night.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... Models continue with the
idea of bringing up a weak warm-core wave through western NM Sunday.
Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front pushing westward through the state
will act as a trigger for showers and thunderstorms over much of the
forecast area Sunday. Instability along the east slopes of the
Sangre de Cristo mountains and northeast highlands (area between I-25
and the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristos) will be limited, with
widespread light to moderate stratiform-like rainfall expected for
much of the day. Isentropic upglide continues areawide Sunday night
with areas of low-topped convection likely across central NM where
low level winds converge from near the west mesa of ABQ westward to
the Continental Divide and possibly as far west as the AZ border.
GFS is indicating that showers and storms will be rather late to
develop Monday with cool low-levels from rainfall and cloud cover.
The ECWMF, however, keep areas of precipitation going over the
northern third or so through the day Monday as the above mentioned
warm-core wave slides east through northern NM. Much of the Monday
precipitation forecast will depend on whether this wave remains in
tact or gets picked up/sheared apart in the northwest flow aloft. GFS
allows it to get somewhat caught up in the northwest flow with
convection associated with this feature firing up over the Sangre de
Cristo mountains late in the day. Any sort of northwest flow aloft,
however light it may be, is notorious for strong storms from the east
slopes of the Sangre de Cristos east to the northeast highlands and
plains. Elsewhere, scattered to numerous afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are anticipated Monday afternoon and evening. Storm
motion will be from the northwest to southeast around 15 mph Monday.

Four Corners` high tries to rear its ugly head over northern
AZ/southern UT Tuesday and over NM Wednesday. A downtick in
thunderstorm activity is expected both days with scattered coverage
forecast for central and western NM. Another backdoor cold front is
in the works for another very active couple of thunderstorm days
Thursday and Friday.



No fire weather concerns through the forecast period. Numerous to
widespread afternoon storms expected Saturday, with the most
significant increase in coverage expected along and east of the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains, to include the Hermit`s Peak/Calf Canyon
burn area. A backdoor front will bring a northeasterly wind
shift to northeastern NM late Saturday, bringing east canyon
winds through the gaps of the central mountain chain Saturday
night. More numerous to widespread storm coverage expected across
the forecast area with slower and more erratic storm motions Sunday
and Monday. Overall storm coverage trends lower through the middle
of next week as temperatures warm up.



Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon
for the following zones... NMZ211-214-215.


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