000
FXUS65 KABQ 161134 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
434 AM MST Wed Jan 16 2019

.UPDATE...
A quick update to the forecast was just sent to account for mist/fog
developing in portions of the Rio Grande. This will remain patchy,
but locally dense, as indicated by the Belen observation which is
carrying less than a quarter of a mile visibility. Any fog in the
central valley should burn off by mid morning.

52

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A pair of disturbances aloft are moving over northern New Mexico,
bringing rain and high elevation snow to northwestern and north
central portions of the state. MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility
are accompanying the precipitation along with northern mountain
obscurations. Some localized mist/fog will also extend into parts of
the Rio Grande, but should burn off by mid morning. Winds will be the
other aviation hazard, turning strong over the central mountain
chain with mountain wave activity likely developing along/east of the
Sangre de Cristos this morning. Strong winds will then mix into the
lower elevation plains by the afternoon with surface gusts of 35 to
40kt. Low stratus and fog could linger or redevelop in northwestern
to north central New Mexico late tonight into early Thursday morning.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...236 AM MST Wed Jan 16 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong west winds will impact along and east of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains today as snow showers across the northwest mountains
continue through the morning period. Clearer and warmer conditions
are expected Thursday before another winter storm system brings
valley rain and mountain snow to much of New Mexico Friday. Colder
air swings through with this next system as highs fall five to ten
degrees below normal with upper 30s to upper 40s for daytime highs on
Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today...Valley rain and mountain snow has moved into portions of
northwest New Mexico this morning as a weakening disturbance moves
into the region. A mid-level dry slot evident on the mid-level
GOES-16 WV imagery appears to be currently limiting precipitation
intensity. Intensity should start increasing as the axis of the
trough moves east from AZ into NM later this morning, coupled with
orographic upslope flow into SW facing slopes of the northwest and
Tusas Mtns. Snow showers will continue through the morning period,
beginning to taper off around noon. Snow accumulations should see an
additional 2-4 inches by the end of today. Meanwhile, the pressure
gradient aloft will tighten as the core of the mid and upper level
jet max moves across the state. This will produce strong west winds
25 to 35 mph sustained with gusts up to 50 mph focusing atop the
Sangre`s first, then spreading to lower elevations of the East
Central Plains this afternoon.

Tonight-Thursday...Winds and precipitation exit the state late this
evening with warmer temperatures expected Thursday. Breezy westerly
winds will return to the east plains.

Friday...The next winter storm system still looks on track to arrive
into western New Mexico late Thursday night, quickly moving over the
state Friday with an associated backdoor cold front sweeping through
the eastern plains Friday night into Saturday morning. Colder air
will accompany this storm system, however there still remains
uncertainty on the timing of the frontal passage. Suffice to say,
another round of valley rain and mountain snow will reach much of
the forecast area during the day Friday. Currently, given the timing
of this system, most of the substantial snow amounts will be confined
to the higher terrain with valley areas seeing rain or non-
accumulating snow.

24/RJH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Clouds and precipitation will shift from west central and
northwestern NM to north central parts of the state today. Above
normal temperatures will continue in the eastern plains, and breezy
to windy conditions will impact areas along and east of the central
mountain chain today. Fortunately, minimum humidity will remain
fairly elevated at 25 percent or better, too high for any critical
concerns. The stronger winds will assist smoke ventilation rates
this afternoon.

No critical concerns are foreseen through the remainder of the week.
While another breezy to windy stint is forecast for Friday and
Friday night, humidity will again be relatively high (even in the
eastern plains) as the next shot of precipitation arrives and cooler
temperatures sweep in. Drier and more settled weather follow for the
weekend. Another breezy to windy day will unfold on Monday, but at
this time humidity still appears to remain above critical thresholds.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening for
the following zones... NMZ523-528-529-532>534.

Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for the
following zones... NMZ503-510.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM MST this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ513>515.

&&

$$