Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 211126 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
526 AM MDT Wed Apr 21 2021

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period. A gusty east canyon wind at KABQ will continue a downtrend
this morning. Winds will turn to the south across the area this
afternoon and get gusty. The strongest winds will be at KGUP this
afternoon, where gusts to around 40kts are likely.



.PREV DISCUSSION...253 AM MDT Wed Apr 21 2021...
A warming trend gets underway today as south to southwest winds
increase. Cooler air moves into far western New Mexico on Thursday
with breezy to locally windy condtions develop most areas by
afternoon. A mostly dry storm system remains on track to move through
Friday. Isolated showers and a thunderstorm or two will favor the
northern and western mountains along with far northeast New Mexico
Friday. Broad high pressure is forecast to build overhead Saturday
with warmer temperatures and light winds. Southwest winds will
likely increase on Sunday and continue into early next week.


The backdoor cold front is attempting to push west beyond the
Continental Divide early this morning and a gusty east canyon wind
persists at the Albuquerque Sunport. However, winds are
trending down and are currently below advisory threshold, so will
cancel the Wind Advisory for the middle RGV a few hours early.
Below normal temperatures are forecast today behind the front,
especially across the eastern plains where highs will be around 15
degrees below normal. Winds will turn south and get gusty by the
afternoon hours as a Pacific low approaches from over central CA.
Will issue a Wind Advisory for the west central plateau including
Gallup for this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, breezy to
windy conditions will prevail across our area later today.

Warming is forecast overnight into Thursday in advance of the Pacific
low/trough, with breezy to windy conditions developing again by the
afternoon hours. Highs on Thursday will be within a few degrees of
normal central and east, and below normal west. A few high-based
showers or storms are possible late Thursday afternoon across far
northwest NM in advance of the approaching trough, but little to no
measurable precipitation is expected given a very dry airmass in the
lower levels of the atmosphere. Instead, strong/erratic wind gusts
are likely with localized blowing dust.

Moisture starved upper-level trough on approach Thursday night. GFS
and ECMWF agree that a few light showers may break out in far
northwest NM Thursday night. The associated surface cold front is
forecast to be near the AZ/NM line around sunrise Friday with
isolated showers moving in behind the front. Models continue with
the idea that the western and northern mountains will be favored for
light precipitation with a stray shower or sprinkles possible most
areas Friday. Isolated thunderstorms will likely favor far eastern
Colfax and much of Union county Friday afternoon. Temperatures
rebound all areas Saturday underneath a broad upper-level ridge.
Ridge slides east of NM by Sunday with southwest flow aloft moving in
and resulting in increasing afternoon winds. Winds ramp up further
Monday, ahead of a high amplitude trough moving onto the West Coast.
GFS and ECWMF are in very good agreement brining this trough through
NM with a bit more moisture than previous models runs for Tuesday.
Additionally, a robust Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) (which is back
alive and well in the EPAC) could result in an even deeper trough
slightly farther south. If nothing else, a positive Pacific-North
American pattern (PNA) combined with an excited MJO in phases 7/8
would act to at least keep NM cooler than average for late
April/early May.




Below normal temperatures will prevail again today across the
eastern half of the state behind the cold front, but late day mixing
ahead of an approaching Pacific low will create critical fire
weather conditions across much of western NM where a Red Flag
Warning is in effect. The Pacific low/trough will approach from over
AZ on Thursday, with critical fire weather conditions possibly
redeveloping and spreading further east to include more of central
NM. A Fire Weather Watch will be issued shortly for Thursday.
Moisture will linger over the area Friday on the backside of the
departing trough, but elevated fire weather conditions are still
expected by afternoon after winds pick up. Expect a break on
Saturday, followed by increasing winds and potential for critical
fire weather conditions from Sunday into Monday as a more potent
Pacific trough approaches from the west coast. Cooler conditions
with some chances for wetting precipitation will prevail on Tuesday
as the Pacific trough moves overhead.



Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for the
following zones... NMZ101-105-106-109.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening
for the following zones... NMZ106-107-109.

Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this evening for
the following zones... NMZ205.

Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT this morning for the following
zones... NMZ232>237.

Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT this morning for the following
zones... NMZ238.


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