Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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425 FXUS65 KABQ 012329 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 529 PM MDT Fri Nov 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 525 PM MDT Fri Nov 1 2024 - Locally heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and strong to severe storms are possible in eastern and southeastern NM late Friday through mid-day Saturday. - A storm system will bring colder temperatures and the first noteworthy snow of the season to the northern and western mountains Sunday through Monday. - A colder storm system may impact the region late Wednesday through Friday, bringing more widespread precipitation with lower snow levels. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 322 PM MDT Fri Nov 1 2024 Southeast New Mexico will have an active evening with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms are possible overnight and into the early morning. Locally heavy rainfall of over two inches tonight could lead to the possibility of flash flooding in Chaves, Curry and Roosevelt counties. Wintery conditions look to arrive Sunday night and Monday with colder temperatures and snow for western NM and the higher terrain of northern and central NM. Another stronger system late in the week looks to bring more widespread freezing temperatures and snow to the area. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 322 PM MDT Fri Nov 1 2024 Strong moisture advection is underway in eastern New Mexico out ahead of a weak trough in the sub-tropical jet stream. Upper-level divergence aloft will increase this evening as the SW/NE oriented jet max intensifies and pushes eastward. Strong moisture advection combined with lift associated with this jet streak will lead to the development of clusters of storms across the southeast plains this evening. Gulf moisture will surge PWATs to above the 99.5" for this time of year so rainfall rates will be seasonably efficient. Ample elevated instability will favor large clusters of showers and storms and the constant influx of low-level moisture from the southeast will help new storms continuously generate along a convergence zone. The exact placement of this convergence zone will determine exactly which locations get very heavy rainfall. Some models show the boundary as far west as Roswell, however the general agreement among HREF members is that it will be further southeast along a line from Artesia to Caprock. Rainfall totals will generally range from 0.5- 1.5" across the broader eastern plains, but HREF 6-hour max precipitation suggests 4-6" are possible at the southerly initiation point of the convergence zone. If this worst case scenario pans out over Roswell, significant flash flooding is possible once again. However, as previously mentioned, model guidance is trending towards keeping the heaviest rainfall out of Roswell. Elevated convection, and the associated flash flood threat, will continue all the way through sunrise. Flood waters can be very difficult to see at nighttime so its best to stay off the roads tonight if at all possible in southeastern NM. There will be sufficient instability for large hail, but small hail between the size of peas and pennies will be favored with this kind of set-up. The threat of damaging winds will be slightly higher than that of hail since brief wet microbursts are likely to occur with stronger storms that will be embedded within larger clusters. Any break in activity tomorrow morning will be short-lived because another round of storms will develop over the same areas Saturday afternoon. The overall coverage will be lower, but the Flash Flood Watch may need to be extended through Saturday evening if heavy rainfall does occur tonight and early Saturday. Drier air overrunning the moist airmass at the surface will result in higher instability tomorrow so the hail threat may actually be a tad higher. This drier air will eventually take over Saturday evening, allowing the region to dry out. After that, all eyes turn to a storm system approaching from the west. More on that in the long-term discussion. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 322 PM MDT Fri Nov 1 2024 A deepening upper level trough will enter the region on Sunday and increase precipitation chances for the Four Corners. As the trough digs into the state on Sunday, an upper low will form over the northern part of NM. Winter conditions are likely for western and northern New Mexico with the higher terrain in central NM seeing the first snowfall of the season. 700mb temperatures will rapidly decrease from west to east from Sunday through Monday. As a result snow levels will dip to below 7,000 feet for most of the state on Sunday night and perhaps even lower on Monday morning. The Sandias and Manzano mountains could see their first snow fall before sunrise on Monday morning as well. Precipitation chances will persist later into the day for northern and northeastern New Mexico, with the highest forecasted snow amounts for the Sangre De Cristo mountains. A backdoor cold front on monday morning could reinforce snow fall totals for the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. After the system pulls out of New Mexico on Tuesday, a brief period of benign weather and more zonal WSW flow until the next upper level low enters the area on Wednesday evening through Thursday. There is some uncertainty with the exact timing of this system and its strength, but current guidance show it to be stronger than the system earlier in the week. Current probabilistic cluster analysis shows some model members producing a closed low over the Desert Southwest as opposed to a more open wave pattern. However, current guidance indicates this system will bring more widespread cold temperatures and precipitation, including snow. Overall, high temperatures look to be as much as 15 degrees below average throughout the state with these two winter systems. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 525 PM MDT Fri Nov 1 2024 VFR prevails with increasing southwesterly winds Saturday afternoon thru central and western NM. Abundant low-level Gulf moisture advancing northward into eastern NM will provide for widespread showers and thunderstorms and IFR/MVFR ceilings tonight thru much of Saturday. Showers reaching KROW expected to begin 03Z to 04Z with best chances for thunderstorm activity b/w 04Z to 12Z with continued showers and low ceiling impacts thru Saturday morning. Showers expected to reach KCVN and KTCC tonight, with best chances for thunderstorm activity b/w 05Z to 12Z. Low clouds may not burn off entirely over east-central and southeastern NM Saturday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 322 PM MDT Fri Nov 1 2024 Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are possible in southeastern New Mexico this evening through Saturday evening. While central and northeastern areas will remain mostly dry, humidity recoveries will be better thanks to southeasterly moisture advection. A Fall storm will impact the area Sunday afternoon through early Tuesday morning, bringing breezy winds, increased valley rain/mountain snow chances, and colder temperatures. Several inches of snow are likely above 8,000ft in the western and northern high terrain and rain/snow mix could occur as low as 5,000ft in central and western valleys. Another, colder Pacific storm system could impact the area Thursday and Friday. There may be a backdoor front associated with this storm system, which could create some gusty east to northeast winds in central and eastern areas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 33 65 38 51 / 0 0 20 50 Dulce........................... 20 64 28 46 / 0 0 20 50 Cuba............................ 31 62 33 46 / 0 0 10 70 Gallup.......................... 22 63 30 47 / 0 0 30 80 El Morro........................ 32 62 32 44 / 0 0 20 80 Grants.......................... 25 67 30 49 / 0 0 10 70 Quemado......................... 29 63 33 48 / 0 0 20 70 Magdalena....................... 39 66 38 54 / 0 0 0 50 Datil........................... 33 63 32 49 / 0 0 5 60 Reserve......................... 25 67 32 51 / 0 0 10 70 Glenwood........................ 40 70 42 55 / 0 0 20 70 Chama........................... 25 58 25 42 / 0 0 20 50 Los Alamos...................... 40 60 38 49 / 0 0 10 40 Pecos........................... 37 62 36 50 / 5 10 5 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 33 59 31 46 / 0 0 5 20 Red River....................... 28 50 26 39 / 0 0 0 20 Angel Fire...................... 19 56 22 44 / 0 5 0 20 Taos............................ 28 62 28 50 / 0 0 5 20 Mora............................ 31 61 30 51 / 5 10 5 20 Espanola........................ 30 68 32 55 / 0 0 5 30 Santa Fe........................ 40 62 38 51 / 5 5 5 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 35 65 35 54 / 0 5 5 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 45 69 44 56 / 0 0 5 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 38 70 42 58 / 0 0 5 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 35 72 41 60 / 0 0 5 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 39 69 43 58 / 0 0 5 40 Belen........................... 32 72 39 62 / 0 0 0 30 Bernalillo...................... 36 71 40 58 / 0 0 5 40 Bosque Farms.................... 30 72 38 60 / 0 0 5 30 Corrales........................ 37 71 41 58 / 0 0 5 40 Los Lunas....................... 33 72 40 61 / 0 0 0 30 Placitas........................ 42 68 42 56 / 0 0 5 40 Rio Rancho...................... 38 69 42 57 / 0 0 5 40 Socorro......................... 39 74 42 63 / 0 0 0 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 38 63 37 51 / 0 0 5 30 Tijeras......................... 40 66 38 54 / 0 0 5 30 Edgewood........................ 32 67 33 55 / 0 5 0 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 25 69 31 57 / 5 5 0 30 Clines Corners.................. 36 62 34 54 / 10 10 0 20 Mountainair..................... 35 66 36 55 / 0 5 0 30 Gran Quivira.................... 36 66 36 56 / 0 5 0 30 Carrizozo....................... 45 69 44 59 / 20 10 0 20 Ruidoso......................... 43 64 41 53 / 40 20 0 20 Capulin......................... 37 59 35 56 / 5 5 0 0 Raton........................... 31 63 31 59 / 0 5 0 0 Springer........................ 31 65 33 61 / 5 10 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 35 61 34 55 / 10 20 0 10 Clayton......................... 48 63 45 65 / 30 20 10 0 Roy............................. 41 61 39 60 / 30 20 5 0 Conchas......................... 50 67 45 68 / 50 40 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 49 66 44 65 / 40 40 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 53 68 48 69 / 70 60 10 0 Clovis.......................... 54 66 49 69 / 90 90 20 0 Portales........................ 55 67 51 70 / 90 90 20 0 Fort Sumner..................... 53 67 48 68 / 70 60 5 0 Roswell......................... 58 70 48 71 / 90 60 5 0 Picacho......................... 48 70 42 64 / 60 30 0 10 Elk............................. 45 72 40 60 / 60 30 0 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Saturday morning for NMZ235-236-238. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...24