816
FXUS65 KABQ 010047 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
647 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 640 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

- Abundant moisture returns today through Thursday allowing for
  greater coverages of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
  and evening. These will be efficient rain producing storms which
  will increase the risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding,
  especially over recent burn scars.

- Drier air sweeps in by the Fourth of July holiday and Saturday,
  limiting the development of showers and thunderstorms before
  rain chances rise again on Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

A Mmre stable airmass has spread over central NM this evening in
the wake of rain-cooled air from storms and very strong convective
outflows. The Flash Flood Watch has been cancelled for this area
with improved confidence that no additional heavy rainfall will
occur. Storms are still moving slowly southwest across parts of
the Sangre de Cristos so the watch will remain in place. Storm
outflows are still approaching the Ruidoso area from the north and
the HRRR/RRFS/NBM guidance still indicates potential for storms
to develop over that area so the watch will remain intact as well.
Both areas may be cancelled by 9pm if no more storms materialize.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 155 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to erupt through the
afternoon, favoring areas along and near the Central Mountain
Chain. As has been the case already this afternoon, storm may
initially be strong or severe with hail, but they will tend to
decrease in intensity rather quickly, producing an outflow
boundary. Outflow boundaries may produce winds of 50 to 60 mph.
Storms will expand late this afternoon and this evening with the
aid of outflow boundary collisions. After sunset, much of the
activity is expected to be across eastern NM which may persist
well into Tuesday morning. With time though, conditions should
stabilize and precipitation should become more stratiform.
Nonetheless, the main concern through tonight is heavy rainfall
with slow storm motions. With PWATs increasing to around 1 inch
in the Rio Grande Valley by late afternoon and up to 1.5 inches
across eastern NM, storms will be efficient at producing rainfall.
A quick inch in 20-30 minutes is not out of the question. This
will be especially problematic for burn scars if/when additional
development occurs on the scars.

Storms and outflow boundaries along and east of the Central
Mountain Chain will help push an easterly wind through the gaps.
In the ABQ Metro, wind speeds could be as strong as 50 mph or
more. These easterly winds will push richer moisture westward this
evening and overnight, likely pushing past the AZ border. This
will raise PWATS close to one inch across western NM.

On Tuesday, an inverted trough will be located over NM with
potentially an MCV loitering around eastern NM due to tonight`s
convection. Generally speaking, the inverted trough should help
kick off another round of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon. The main question continues to be how stable portions
of eastern NM will be. Abundant cloud cover, perhaps some morning
showers and cooler temperatures should help to stabilize the area.
That would mean that while there could be some shower activity,
thunderstorm activity and heavier precipitation would be harder to
come by. That said, any remnant boundaries or an MCV could
help destabilize the area. Meanwhile, warmer temperatures,
steeper mid level lapse rates and a fresh influx of richer
moisture should allow for thunderstorms to develop along and west
of the Rio Grande Valley. Similar to today, will probably see a
few brief strong to severe storms and gusty outflow. However,
there will also be a risk of heavy precipitation and flash
flooding, especially given the continued slow storm motions.
Given the uncertainty and the desire to see how the rest of the
evening transpires, have held off on a Flood Watch for Tuesday.

Some storms will linger through Tuesday night, and most models
suggest this will be across southern NM. Again,this may be more
in the way of stratiform precipitation across southeast NM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 155 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

On Wednesday, flow will become southerly, or a more traditional
monsoon flow as the upper high gradually loses it`s grip on NM.
Wednesday looks to be a pretty standard monsoon day, with showers
and thunderstorms developing over all high terrain areas first,
and then gradually filling in across the lower elevations. PWATs
will remain above average, so heavy rainfall will remain a
concern.

The upper level low that will be inching across CA Tuesday and
Wednesday looks to finally fill and start to eject eastward on
Thursday. This brings southerly flow aloft around to the
southwest, and low level flow may turn westerly across western and
perhaps central NM. This will begin to bring in some drier air to
northwest NM, but the moisture gradient that will set up near/east
of the ContDvd will likely be a focus for strong to briefly
severe storms Thursday afternoon. Elsewhere, storms will again
favor the high terrain initially, but as the trough pushes
eastward, storms should become more numerous across the lower
elevations and continue well into Thursday night across central
and eastern NM.

The trough axis crosses the state on Friday, and a potent dry slot
will punch into the state. This will significantly limit
precipitation areawide. We may see only a few storms on Friday.
The favored area will be far northeast NM where a boundary may
press into the area. Saturday looks to stay pretty quiet as well,
except across northeast NM as the boundary lingers. Otherwise,
dry air will remain aloft and an upper high will build overhead. A
few more storms are possible on Sunday, mainly across eastern NM,
but overall, still quieter than much of this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Numerous SHRA/TS over the region late this afternoon will give
way to areas of light rain with embedded TS overnight, mainly
along and east of the central mt chain. Moist east winds across
eastern NM overnight will allow widespread MVFR low cigs to
develop with pockets of IFR along the east slopes of the central
mt chain. The NBM probability for fog with visibility <5 miles in
below 10% across eastern NM. If any were to form it would favor
the Roswell area. Widespread cloud cover may persist well into
Tuesday morning and perhaps even the afternoon across much of the
eastern plains. This cloud cover and cooler temps may limit the
amount of instability for storms. Western NM will have greater
sunshine and be able to destabilize sooner by late morning. This
activity across the west will be capable of producing very strong
outflow winds and blowing dust like was observed this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Isolated dry thunderstorms will continue through this evening
across far western NM. A strong gap wind will develop in the Rio
Grande Valley this afternoon and evening, which will send richer
moisture westward to the AZ border. This moisture will set the
stage for daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms through
Thursday areawide. Some storms will produce heavy rainfall as well
as gusty and erratic winds. A dry slot will punch into NM from the
west on Friday, limiting precipitation and dropping humidities.
Relatively quiet and dry conditions will persist Saturday as an
upper high builds overhead. A few storms will be possible mainly
across northeast NM. Perhaps a few more storms on Sunday as Gulf
moisture returns to eastern NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  63  91  62  89 /   5  20  20  20
Dulce...........................  47  84  48  85 /  10  50  20  40
Cuba............................  54  80  53  81 /  10  40  30  40
Gallup..........................  57  87  55  83 /  10  30  30  40
El Morro........................  55  81  53  79 /  10  40  40  70
Grants..........................  55  83  53  82 /  20  40  30  60
Quemado.........................  56  84  56  80 /  30  50  50  70
Magdalena.......................  58  77  57  78 /  50  50  40  70
Datil...........................  53  78  54  76 /  40  60  50  70
Reserve.........................  52  89  52  85 /  20  60  40  70
Glenwood........................  57  91  56  88 /  20  70  40  70
Chama...........................  46  76  45  77 /  20  60  30  50
Los Alamos......................  57  75  56  76 /  40  60  30  70
Pecos...........................  53  72  53  74 /  70  70  40  70
Cerro/Questa....................  50  76  51  78 /  50  50  20  50
Red River.......................  43  67  43  68 /  50  50  20  50
Angel Fire......................  40  68  40  71 /  70  60  20  60
Taos............................  50  78  50  80 /  40  50  20  50
Mora............................  48  69  46  72 /  60  70  30  60
Espanola........................  57  82  57  86 /  40  50  20  50
Santa Fe........................  57  75  56  78 /  60  60  30  60
Santa Fe Airport................  56  78  54  81 /  60  50  30  60
Albuquerque Foothills...........  63  81  62  83 /  40  40  30  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  65  82  62  83 /  40  40  30  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  63  84  61  85 /  30  30  30  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  64  83  63  83 /  30  30  30  30
Belen...........................  60  85  61  87 /  30  30  30  30
Bernalillo......................  63  84  61  85 /  40  40  30  40
Bosque Farms....................  60  84  60  85 /  30  30  30  30
Corrales........................  63  84  61  85 /  30  40  30  40
Los Lunas.......................  60  84  61  85 /  30  30  30  30
Placitas........................  61  79  60  81 /  40  40  30  40
Rio Rancho......................  64  83  63  84 /  30  30  30  40
Socorro.........................  63  85  63  86 /  40  40  40  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  55  75  55  79 /  50  50  30  50
Tijeras.........................  58  77  58  80 /  50  50  30  50
Edgewood........................  54  76  53  79 /  60  50  30  60
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  75  52  79 /  60  60  40  60
Clines Corners..................  53  68  52  73 /  60  60  50  60
Mountainair.....................  55  74  54  77 /  50  50  40  60
Gran Quivira....................  55  74  53  76 /  50  50  50  60
Carrizozo.......................  61  78  59  78 /  40  70  50  70
Ruidoso.........................  53  67  53  69 /  40  80  60  80
Capulin.........................  51  70  52  75 /  50  40  20  30
Raton...........................  52  77  52  80 /  60  50  10  40
Springer........................  53  75  53  80 /  60  50  20  40
Las Vegas.......................  52  70  51  74 /  60  70  30  60
Clayton.........................  60  77  59  79 /  40  40  30  20
Roy.............................  56  72  56  75 /  70  50  40  40
Conchas.........................  62  77  61  80 /  60  60  50  40
Santa Rosa......................  60  73  59  75 /  60  70  60  50
Tucumcari.......................  61  77  60  79 /  50  60  60  40
Clovis..........................  62  75  60  79 /  60  70  70  50
Portales........................  61  75  60  80 /  60  70  70  60
Fort Sumner.....................  62  78  61  80 /  50  70  60  50
Roswell.........................  65  78  65  81 /  80  70  70  60
Picacho.........................  60  75  60  76 /  60  80  60  80
Elk.............................  57  73  57  75 /  50  80  60  80

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ214-215-226-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...42