536
FXUS65 KABQ 140006 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
606 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 309 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

Isolated showers and storms this afternoon will taper off overnight.
Similar conditions are expected tomorrow, with activity initiating
over the high terrain. Storm coverage will expand on Wednesday and
Thursday with the possibility of some storms in eastern New Mexico
becoming strong to severe. Much cooler temperatures are expected
Thursday, warming up considerably on Friday through the weekend.
Some of the warmest temperatures of the year may occur on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

Residual midlevel moisture behind this weekend`s upper low along
with a weak shortwave moving south across southeast CO and northeast
NM have resulted in the development of a few showers over the
northern mountains. Drier virga showers have also developed over the
western and south central mountains moving south to southeast at
around 10 to 20 mph. These southern high terrain areas could see
some dry microbursts with gusts of up to 50 mph possible. Any
activity will quickly come to an end around sunset with clear skies
and light winds overnight. The warmup continues tomorrow as the weak
ridge currently over Arizona moves into New Mexico during the first
half of the day and then into the Great Plains late. Temperatures
will be around 3 to 7 degrees above normal for many. Midlevel
moisture combined with some lift ahead of an upper level trough over
the northern Rockies and an baggy upper low over southern CA will
result in the development of some isolated virga and drier variety
storms across the northern and west central mountains. Little if any
wetting precipitation is expected, with erratic wind gusts of up to
50 mph being the overall impact. Mid to high level clouds hang on
across many areas Tuesday night with temperatures slightly above
seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

Ridge of high pressure will begin breaking down on Wednesday
ahead of a shortwave trough traversing the Intermountain West and
an incoming upper low to SoCal. Meanwhile, a convectively-aided
backdoor front will dip into eastern NM, bringing enhanced lift
and modest moisture. Current guidance suggest that Tds across
eastern NM will remain uninspiring, topping out at 40F at best but
plenty of CAPE will exist amongst 0-6 km shear values of 35 to 45
kts. Should moisture improve, stronger storms would be on the
docket for northeastern NM Wednesday afternoon. The low attempts
to phase into the broader trough to the north Thursday, allowing
for the sfc front out east to make a secondary push westward.
Richer moisture comes into play as the disturbance enters the area
and the backdoor front continues surging westward towards the
RGV. This will lead to better instability, especially across
eastern NM in the afternoon where Tds reach past 50F. A wide swath
of CAPE values in excess of 1200 J/kg will exist amongst shear
values between 35 and 45 kts across the eastern plains, which
could give rise to a few strong to severe storms in the afternoon.
Temperatures will be cooler, however, thanks to the fropas, but
will still range between 70F and 85F Thursday afternoon. A number
of variables must combine to allow these ingredients to manifest
into a severe weather day -- namely the timely flirtation and
amalgamation of the two low pressure systems -- and Thursday
remains a day to watch.

As the system pushes out into the Great Plains Thursday night, a
drier and warmer pattern takes shape as a ridge of high pressure
builds over the Desert Southwest. Temperatures will warm 5F to 14F
Friday compared to Thursday`s readings. The warming trend will
continue into Saturday with locally breezy west to southwest winds.
Winds will increase on Sunday as the ridge of high pressure begins
to break down. Widespread breezy to locally windy southwest winds
will prevail areawide on Sunday which will aid in compressional
warming. This will create some of the hottest temperatures so far
this season, with locales such as KABQ and KROW reaching near 90F
and 100F, respectively.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

Scattered to isolated virga showers and a few thunderstorms will
gradually decrease in coverage within a few hours after sunset
this evening. Storm motion will be toward the south and southeast
around 5-15 KT. Dry microbursts west of the central mountain
chain, and microbursts from cells with very small wetting
footprints along and east of the central mountain chain, will be
capable of localized and erratic wind gusts near 40 KT. Outflow
boundaries are forecast to congeal and travel southward through
the SAF, ABQ, and AEG areas with a brief period of gusty winds
early this evening. Tuesday afternoon and evening will feature
similar weather with slightly greater coverage of convective cells
with dry microbursts central valley westward, or hybrid wet/dry
microbursts along and east of the central mountain chain, capable
of producing erratic wind gusts up to 45 KT. Tuesday`s storm
motion will be from east to west at speeds around 10-15 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

Remnant mid level moisture combined with daytime heating will
result in some isolated showers and storms over the northern
mountains and western mountains before sunset this evening and
tomorrow afternoon and evening. Main impact will be strong outflow
winds and little in the way of wetting rainfall. A more active
pattern arrives Wednesday as a weak upper low over southern
California begins moves east and a upper level disturbance over
the northern and central Rockies dives south. Higher moisture
behind a backdoor front moves into northeast NM bringing a better
coverage of wetter showers and storms. Showers and storms will
also be possible across the west central mountains but will be
drier and provide more in the way of erratic wind gusts. The
backdoor front across northeast NM moves through all of eastern NM
Thursday with widespread wetting showers and storms along the
east slopes of the central mountain chain as the aformentioned
upper level disturbances merge overhead.

Showers and storms exit into Texas Thursday night with drier and
hotter conditions Friday into next weekend. An isolated shower or
storm is possible across the higher terrain Friday afternoon.
Westerly flow increases on Sunday ahead of the next Pacific upper
low and this along with well above normal temperatures could lead to
some critical fire weather conditions across western and east
central NM. Winds increase further next Monday with critical fire
weather conditions possible across western and central NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  45  82  46  79 /   0  10   5  10
Dulce...........................  34  78  36  74 /  10  20  10  40
Cuba............................  40  76  41  73 /   5  20  10  30
Gallup..........................  37  78  39  76 /   0  20   5  20
El Morro........................  41  74  41  72 /   5  30   5  30
Grants..........................  38  75  38  75 /   0  30   5  20
Quemado.........................  42  74  41  74 /   5  20   5  20
Magdalena.......................  49  76  49  76 /   5  20   0  10
Datil...........................  44  73  43  73 /  10  20   0  10
Reserve.........................  38  80  38  80 /   5  10   0  10
Glenwood........................  52  85  50  85 /   5   5   0   5
Chama...........................  35  71  36  68 /  10  40  10  50
Los Alamos......................  48  72  48  70 /  10  20  10  40
Pecos...........................  42  74  44  73 /  10  20  10  40
Cerro/Questa....................  40  69  41  66 /  10  30  10  60
Red River.......................  33  66  34  62 /  10  40  20  70
Angel Fire......................  27  68  30  64 /  10  30  10  60
Taos............................  35  75  37  72 /   5  20  10  40
Mora............................  38  72  40  68 /  10  20  10  50
Espanola........................  44  81  47  77 /   5  20   5  30
Santa Fe........................  48  76  48  73 /   5  20  10  30
Santa Fe Airport................  45  79  47  77 /   5  10   5  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  54  82  55  80 /   5  10   5  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  52  84  53  82 /   0  10   0  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  51  86  52  84 /   0  10   0  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  52  84  53  82 /   5  10   0  10
Belen...........................  48  86  49  84 /   5  10   0  10
Bernalillo......................  50  84  52  82 /   5  10   5  20
Bosque Farms....................  47  85  49  84 /   5  10   0  10
Corrales........................  49  85  51  82 /   5  10   0  10
Los Lunas.......................  47  85  49  84 /   5  10   0  10
Placitas........................  51  80  52  79 /   5  10   5  20
Rio Rancho......................  51  84  52  81 /   0  10   0  10
Socorro.........................  52  87  53  86 /   5  10   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  48  74  48  74 /   5  10   5  20
Tijeras.........................  48  78  48  77 /   5  10   5  20
Edgewood........................  45  79  45  77 /   5  10   0  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  39  79  41  78 /   5  10   0  20
Clines Corners..................  42  74  43  73 /   5  10   0  20
Mountainair.....................  45  78  46  77 /   0  10   5  10
Gran Quivira....................  45  78  45  78 /   5   5   0   5
Carrizozo.......................  53  83  54  83 /   0   5   0   5
Ruidoso.........................  48  75  49  76 /   0   5   0  10
Capulin.........................  41  74  43  67 /   5  40  10  70
Raton...........................  40  78  42  71 /  10  30   5  60
Springer........................  40  78  43  73 /  10  30   5  60
Las Vegas.......................  42  76  43  73 /   5  20   5  40
Clayton.........................  48  83  50  76 /   5  20  10  40
Roy.............................  46  79  48  75 /  10  20   5  40
Conchas.........................  49  85  52  83 /   5   5   5  30
Santa Rosa......................  47  82  50  81 /   5  10   0  20
Tucumcari.......................  48  88  51  84 /   0   0   0  30
Clovis..........................  51  89  54  88 /   0   0   0  20
Portales........................  50  90  53  90 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Sumner.....................  49  87  52  87 /   0   5   0  20
Roswell.........................  55  94  58  94 /   5   0   0  10
Picacho.........................  51  84  54  85 /   5   5   0  10
Elk.............................  49  84  51  84 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...44