Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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699 FXUS65 KABQ 070847 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 247 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 224 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024 Strong winds and critically dry conditions will persist today, with the strongest winds favoring the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, as well as the northeast and central highlands. Winds slacken somewhat on Wednesday but will remain widespread breezy to windy. An influx of modest moisture will allow isolated to scattered thunderstorms to enter the forecast Thursday through the early next week, with the best coverage expected across northern New Mexico. Strong east canyon winds will be possible in the Albuquerque metro Thursday night through Friday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 224 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024 An upper level low will slowly lift into the Dakotas and eastern MT today while the polar jet screams just north of the NM-CO border. This will keep strong winds aloft over our state, particularly the northern half where 700 mb winds are progged to broadly stay in the 35 to 45 kt range with a corridor of stronger 45 to 55 kts near and just east of the Sangre de Cristos where a standing mountain wave signature is expected to develop. This will be coupled with a nearly 990 mb surface low near the OK panhandle and deep mixing, so todays surface winds should be quite windy, taking on more of a southwesterly component to the lee of the mountains while staying more due westerly elsewhere. Will upgrade most of the High Wind Watch to a Warning for the Sangre de Cristos and adjacent highlands with lots of Wind Advisories surrounding. The west southwest direction will offer a hint of warm air advection, and high temperatures should warm several degrees above yesterdays readings. Winds aloft will be stubborn to decrease tonight as a shortwave trough drops over the Great Basin and towards the Four Corners, but the surface gradient should relax with boundary layer decoupling that will allow lower elevation areas to observe lighter overnight winds. Into Wednesday, the aforementioned Four Corners shortwave will race across northern NM through the day, dragging a veering wind direction (turning more west northwesterly) and lower heights that will signify weak cold air advection. Wind speeds aloft would remain strong, but not as high as today, as the surface low will not be quite as deep and vertical mixing not as deep. Still, a Wind Advisory might be warranted for a couple of zones around the central to northeast highlands (Clines Corners to Las Vegas). Temperatures on Wednesday would drop several degrees below normal in northwestern zones while southeastern ones hang on near to slightly above average. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 224 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024 The upper low that brought prolonged winds of misfortune finally swings into the Midwest Wednesday night. As it does, a secondary piece of energy trailing behind over the Great Basin works to develop its own low center. Meanwhile at the sfc, the departing low kicks off a gusty backdoor front down the Great Plains, which surges southward and westward across the eastern plains overnight. This will result in a breezy east canyon wind across the central RGV through Thursday morning. Upslope flow from the front amongst modest moisture will give rise to isolated showers and thunderstorms across the northern mts in the afternoon. In the meantime, the Great Basin low finds its center while it meanders around southern NV. This synoptic pattern will lend favorably to a potential high wind event Thursday night into Friday morning across the middle RGV as the east winds get a secondary push through the canyon gaps. Guidance has been relatively consistent at suggesting sustained speeds in excess of 35 kts, of which the pattern supports. Should the trend continue, wind highlights will be probable in future updates. The blustery canyon winds would diminish through the morning hours, turning southeast by early afternoon. Continued upslope flow out east will help to invigorate more afternoon convection across the northern and central mts. The casual Great Basin low retrogrades towards CA on Friday night, allowing a shortwave ridge to build in front of it across NM. It`s at this point that guidance has a few departures as to the amount of moisture and forcing available for convection on Saturday. For now, kept PoPs mostly in line with the NBM. The low is progged to wander eastward, though its rate and path is still up for debate amongst the GFS and ECMWF. Either way, unsettled weather will continue to be on the docket for at least some locales as long as the system remains in our orbit -- which at this juncture, sees us through the end of the long term forecast. Thankfully, lackluster shear and energy will keep storms in check, allowing them to be more garden-variety in nature, though a few ambitious cells could become strong. Temperatures during the extended forecast will be below normal for most locales, save for a trend to near and above normal on Monday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024 Mostly clear and VFR conditions will prevail through the night and into Tuesday morning. Strong winds aloft will persist overnight, meaning some locations will experience low level wind shear in the transition zone a couple to a few thousand feet above ground. A few high level clouds may develop into the afternoon, but the bigger concern will be another round of strong to severe surface winds developing, particularly over the Sangre de Cristo mountains and surrounding highlands where gusts may reach 50-55kt. Mountain wave activity will also be likely near and east (downwind) of this area. Many other areas within the northern half of New Mexico will also observe high gusts of 35 to 45 kt, and areas of blowing dust could reduce visibility in some areas. Winds will relax after sunset Tuesday, but will still be brisk to breezy over higher elevation areas through Tuesday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 224 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024 ..WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO LOCALLY EXTREME FIRE WEATHER ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY.. A dangerous fire weather pattern will unfold today as strong to severe winds (widespread gusts of 40 to 65 mph) develop amid very dry, warmer and unstable conditions. Many areas in central to eastern NM will observe several hours of humidity at less than 10 percent, and the Haines instability index is peaking at 5 with localized spots at a max value of 6 this afternoon, signifying how dire conditions could be today. The Red Flag Warning will remain in effect through 9 PM when surface winds should be decreasing enough for critical conditions to abate. There are also concerns for Wednesday, however the critical threat is not as blatant as today. Temperatures will be cooling on Wednesday, stability indices lowering (improving), and winds will not be nearly as strong. Still, gusts should commonly reach 30 to 40 mph in much of central to eastern NM with locally higher gusts to 50 mph in the central to northeast highlands. Have opted to keep the Fire Weather Watch intact with the area of most concern being concentrated in San Miguel, Torrance and Guadalupe counties. Fortunately, the arrival of a backdoor front will act to disrupt the windy pattern on Thursday. While there will be some gusts associated with the front, they will generally be of shorter duration with the accompanying cooler and more moist air acting to boost humidity, especially going into Friday and the weekend when a second push of cool, moist air arrives. In addition, showers and thunderstorms will be breaking out, initially favoring the north central zones, but expanding to many others by the weekend. Lightning strikes could cause some new ignitions Thursday and Friday, but temperatures hovering below normal and an absence of long duration strong winds should slow growth through the weekend into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 71 35 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 64 27 58 24 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 67 31 59 30 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 71 32 64 28 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 67 32 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 71 33 66 29 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 71 35 67 34 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 75 42 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 72 37 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 75 35 73 32 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 77 44 76 45 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 59 24 53 25 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 67 39 62 39 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 69 37 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 60 31 56 30 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 56 26 50 25 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 58 26 53 22 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 66 28 61 27 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 66 34 60 31 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 75 38 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 71 38 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 75 36 69 36 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 76 45 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 78 45 72 44 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 80 38 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 78 44 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 82 42 78 40 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 78 42 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 80 39 76 39 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 78 43 72 42 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 80 40 76 40 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 75 42 69 43 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 77 44 71 43 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 85 48 82 45 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 69 40 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 72 41 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 72 39 67 37 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 74 39 70 32 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 70 37 65 35 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 74 42 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 74 44 72 37 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 78 51 76 47 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 71 47 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 69 33 64 32 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 73 33 67 33 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 74 36 69 35 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 71 37 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 78 40 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 75 41 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 83 46 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 80 46 75 42 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 84 45 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 84 49 81 46 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 85 50 82 45 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 84 50 81 45 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 90 54 89 52 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 81 51 80 47 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 78 51 77 46 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-104>106-109-120>126. Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201>205-210>212-216>218-226-228-231>234-240. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for NMZ104-122>126. High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ213>215-223-227-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...52