Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 211757 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1157 AM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018

IFR/MVFR cigs slowly giving way to clearing along the eastern plains
early this afternoon. Drier northwest flow will continue over the
western half of NM today and clear skies thru the afternoon. The east
will have a tougher time clearing out but cigs should rise to VFR
during the afternoon. Another round of low cigs are possible tonight
along and north of I-40 aft 06Z, impacting KLVS and KTCC.


.PREV DISCUSSION...322 AM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018...
Dense fog across the northeast will lift this morning with
temperatures warming up across western New Mexico. A backdoor front
will push further west tonight with another round of low clouds and
fog possible across the east Sunday morning. Temperatures warm Sunday
and Monday with another backdoor front entering eastern New Mexico
Tuesday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible Tuesday
along and east of the central mountain chain. Another chance for
rain could arrive toward the end of next week with yet another
backdoor front across eastern New Mexico.


The center of the upper low was centered near Trinidad, CO as of
0300MDT this morning. The sfc backdoor push has also pushed into
southeastern NM, with low clouds and areas of dense fog across east-
central and northeastern NM. Freezing fog is also being observed
along the east slopes of the Sangre`s as well, supporting a Dense Fog
Advisory through sunrise this morning. All convective activity has
exited the state with the only precip. being some light mist across
the northeast. The upper low will continue to spin into OK later
today with a stronger backdoor push expected to bring some light
showers to the northeast plains this afternoon. Highs will be remain
well below normal, 10-20F below normal across the east, and several
degrees below normal across western and southern NM.

Another round of low clouds and patchy fog is possible Sunday morning
as the backdoor boundary pushes to the central mtn chain. A brief
weak-moderate gap wind could occur at ABQ as a result. Otherwise, a
baggy trough will enter the region from the west Sunday afternoon
potentially sparking a few storms across the northern mtns. The sfc
bdry across the east turns southerly Monday with a lee sfc trough
forming east of the southern Sangre`s likely sparking a few afternoon
storms which should gradually move off to the east toward the TX/OK
panhandles late Monday evening. Daytime highs look to peak Monday
several degrees above average statewide.

An upper level trough will kick down another backdoor front Tuesday
likely sparking off afternoon thunderstorms over the Sangre`s
potentially including the Sandia/Manzanos and Sacramento Mtns later
Tuesday evening. This will also drop temperatures back below normal
across the east. The backdoor front looks to reach to the AZ border
bringing a stronger gap winds through the central mtn chain Tuesday
night. It also looks to spark another round of afternoon storms
across the higher terrain Wed afternoon, but by this point forecast
confidence starts to degrade. For the latter half of next week,
another backdoor front looks to arrive Thursday, however timing and
strength are a question as models diverge with the upper level flow
regime. The main takeaway is that this pattern signals at least a
temporary end to the dry stretch and critical fire weather.



A much needed break from the fire growing pattern has arrived with
the exiting storm system along the Front Range. Humidity recoveries
early this morning are above 90% across a large area of eastern NM
and west of the Cont Divide. Wetting rainfall amounts between 0.25"
and nearly 1" were reported across the east central and northeast
plains Friday. Low level moisture will remain in place today over
eastern NM on east-northeast winds. Western NM will remain under the
influence of light northwest flow aloft with min humidity in the 15
to 20% range. Overnight recoveries tonight will range from very good
across the west to excellent across the east.

Sunday will be a tranquil day with warming temps and slightly lower
min humidity. Vent rates will range from good over the west to poor
across the east under light winds. Drier air will sweep eastward on
Monday within the base of an upper trough passing through Colorado.
High temps will warm 5 to 10 degrees above normal with excellent
vent rates all areas. Surface high pressure building in behind the
upper wave will force a moist, back door cold front into eastern NM
Tuesday. High temps will trend below normal once again behind the
front with much higher min humidity. Widespread low clouds with
light precip is possible Tuesday night over eastern NM. Gap winds
into the Rio Grande Valley may even usher some of this moisture west
to the Cont Divide early Wednesday.

Uncertainty remains in the forecast Wednesday through Friday with
regard to the coverage and placement of wetting precipitation as
several upper waves attempt to slide southeast through the southern
Rockies. The bulk of model scenarios do support at least deeper
moisture and cooler temperatures across the region with a lack of
critical fire weather conditions.





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