627
FXUS65 KABQ 160552 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1152 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 144 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

The combination of a disturbance and a backdoor front will bring
increasing chances for showers and storms through Thursday, mainly
to central and eastern NM. These storms may create flash flooding
on and downstream of area burn scars. A warming and drying trend
is forecast from Friday through early next week with temperatures
rising above normal areawide by Saturday. Roswell is forecast to
reach 100 degrees for the first time this year on Sunday and then
repeat on Monday. Albuquerque is forecast to hit 90 degrees for
the first time this year on Sunday. Afternoon breezes will
gradually increase through the weekend and windy conditions will
prevail by Monday due to an approaching disturbance. Warm and
breezy to windy conditions will then continue into the middle of
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 144 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

A weak Pacific low is over the northern Baja Peninsula per the
latest water vapor satellite imagery and forecast to accelerate
east tonight, then move over southern NM tomorrow. Meanwhile, a
backdoor front has moved into northeast NM, with surface dewpoint
temps in the mid 40s to low 50s filling in behind it. Convection
is firing along and head of the boundary across the northeast
plains, where a few storms may become severe through the afternoon
hours. Otherwise, today`s round will mostly follow a normal
diurnal downtrend this evening. However, a new round of convection
is forecast to develop overnight as the Pacific low draws near
and the backdoor front makes westward progress to the central
mountain chain. The overnight round will be fairly tame given a
lower instability atmosphere and resulting rain rates will be more
beneficial than presenting any type of threat. The exception
would be on area burn scars, but forecast confidence is too low to
issue a watch for the tonight period. Higher forecast confidence
on well-developed convection on Thursday that will focus along the
central mountain chain before moving off to the east late day
along with the Pacific low. Will issue a Flash Flood Watch for the
HPCC and McBride scars for Thursday shortly. Any severe threat on
Thursday should be confined to areas near and east of the South
Central Mountains, where a limited large hail threat exists. Many
storms will produce small hail on Thursday given the colder air
aloft associated with the upper low moving over the area, with the
potential for hail accumulations on area roadways. Otherwise,
Thursday will be much cooler with below normal temperatures thanks
to abundant cloud cover and rain-cooling. Convection will diminish
or move east into TX Thursday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 144 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

A warming and drying trend will begin Friday and continue into
early next week, with increasing afternoon/evening breezes
transitioning to windy conditions by Monday as southwest flow
aloft trends up with the approach of a shortwave trough.
Temperatures will rise above normal areawide by Sunday, with
Roswell forecast to reach 100 for the first time this year.
Continued warming on Monday will give Roswell another 100 degree
day, with Albuquerque forecast to hit 90 for the first time this
year. Warm, dry and breezy to windy conditions that are fairly
typical for mid to late May are forecast to continue into the
middle of next week. Dry line convection may return to the eastern
plains mid to late next week if the flow aloft can back a little
more than what is being offered up in the 12Z medium range model
solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

Scattered showers and isolated storms will favor central and
northern areas overnight, gradually dropping cigs down to MVFR
thresholds in many areas by 12Z. A backdoor cold front will spill
into the Rio Grande Valley around 08Z, but strong east winds
should be prevented by outflow boundaries from showers across
western NM. Precipitation coverage expands around 18Z tomorrow
when widespread convection develops near the center of an upper-
level low that will move across the state from west to east.
Storms will favor eastern NM tomorrow afternoon. Small hail, gusty
winds, and heavy rainfall will be common here and a few storms
may become severe. Most precipitation will exit to the east by
around 02Z with the exception of a few lingering showers across
the eastern plains. Skies clear from the west tomorrow evening as
well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 144 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

The combination of a Pacific low and a backdoor front will bring
good chances for wetting storms to the area through Thursday, but
also the threat for burn scar flooding. A warming and drying trend
is forecast to kick-off Friday and continue into early next week
with gradually increasing winds. Temperatures will rise above
normal areawide by Saturday and hot, dry and unstable conditions
will overtake much of the area. Critical fire weather condtions
may return by Sunday, but will have to assess green-up before
issuing any watches/warnings. Stronger winds associated with a
shortwave trough will hit on Monday and lead to more widespread
critical fire weather conditions. However, the main concern will
be across western NM where fuels may be more receptive. Warm, dry,
breezy and unstable conditions will then continue through at least
the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  47  75  45  82 /  20  20  10   0
Dulce...........................  37  67  36  77 /  30  60  20   5
Cuba............................  43  62  41  75 /  40  60  20   0
Gallup..........................  41  71  39  80 /  30  30  10   0
El Morro........................  42  64  39  74 /  40  50  20   5
Grants..........................  39  66  39  79 /  50  50  20   0
Quemado.........................  42  66  42  75 /  50  60  20   5
Magdalena.......................  47  63  46  77 /  40  70  30   5
Datil...........................  43  62  43  74 /  50  70  30  10
Reserve.........................  40  71  41  82 /  30  50  20  10
Glenwood........................  52  74  51  85 /  20  50  20   5
Chama...........................  37  61  35  71 /  40  70  20  10
Los Alamos......................  47  60  44  72 /  60  70  20   5
Pecos...........................  45  57  41  72 /  70  70  30   5
Cerro/Questa....................  44  57  38  69 /  60  70  20   5
Red River.......................  36  52  32  66 /  70  70  30  10
Angel Fire......................  34  53  31  67 /  70  70  20   5
Taos............................  39  61  36  74 /  50  70  20   5
Mora............................  39  54  37  72 /  70  70  30   5
Espanola........................  49  67  44  80 /  60  70  20   0
Santa Fe........................  47  60  43  74 /  60  70  30   5
Santa Fe Airport................  48  63  43  77 /  40  70  20   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  53  65  49  81 /  50  70  20   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  52  66  49  82 /  30  60  20   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  52  69  50  85 /  30  60  20   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  53  67  49  83 /  30  60  20   0
Belen...........................  50  69  48  85 /  40  70  20   0
Bernalillo......................  52  68  48  84 /  30  70  20   0
Bosque Farms....................  50  69  48  85 /  30  70  20   0
Corrales........................  52  68  49  85 /  30  60  20   0
Los Lunas.......................  51  69  48  85 /  30  70  20   0
Placitas........................  51  64  47  79 /  40  70  20   0
Rio Rancho......................  52  67  48  83 /  30  60  20   0
Socorro.........................  52  71  50  88 /  20  60  20   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  47  58  44  72 /  60  70  20   0
Tijeras.........................  47  61  45  76 /  50  70  20   0
Edgewood........................  45  61  41  77 /  60  70  20   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  42  62  39  77 /  60  70  20   0
Clines Corners..................  43  57  41  72 /  60  70  40   0
Mountainair.....................  44  61  42  76 /  50  70  30   0
Gran Quivira....................  45  63  43  75 /  50  70  30   0
Carrizozo.......................  51  68  48  80 /  20  60  20  10
Ruidoso.........................  46  62  45  73 /  20  70  20  20
Capulin.........................  42  56  39  72 /  60  60  10   5
Raton...........................  45  61  39  77 /  70  60  20   0
Springer........................  45  60  40  77 /  60  70  20   5
Las Vegas.......................  44  57  39  74 /  70  70  30   5
Clayton.........................  50  65  46  79 /  50  50  20   0
Roy.............................  47  60  43  75 /  60  70  20   5
Conchas.........................  51  66  47  82 /  60  60  20   0
Santa Rosa......................  50  63  46  79 /  40  60  20   0
Tucumcari.......................  51  67  48  82 /  50  60  40   0
Clovis..........................  53  68  50  82 /  40  70  50   5
Portales........................  53  71  50  84 /  30  70  50   5
Fort Sumner.....................  52  70  49  83 /  40  60  20   0
Roswell.........................  59  76  55  87 /  20  60  20   5
Picacho.........................  52  69  49  82 /  20  70  20  20
Elk.............................  48  67  47  80 /  10  70  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 6 AM MDT Thursday through Thursday evening for
NMZ215-226-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...16