Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 111208 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
608 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Widespread MVFR and IFR conditions in low clouds and fog will
continue through much of the morning. Fog should lift by afternoon,
and the low clouds may retreat as far east as a Las Vegas to
Milnesand line during the early afternoon. However, the low clouds
will push westward again with a strong backdoor cold front late this
afternoon, and fog will become widespread again across the east
tonight. This front is forecast to produce a strong east canyon wind
in the central valley from KSAF southward tonight with the strongest
gusts approaching 50 kt at KABQ. In addition, showers and
thunderstorms are forecast over the northern mountains and much of
the eastern plains today and tonight as a series of disturbances
crossing the central Rockies interacts with all the moisture over NM.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...329 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and unsettled weather will continue across eastern NM the next
several days while western NM remains warm and dry. Daily rounds of
low clouds, patchy fog, rain showers, a few thunderstorms, and below
normal temperatures will impact eastern NM through Thursday morning.
A ridge of high pressure will begin strengthening over the southwest
United States Thursday afternoon and allow warmer temperatures to
build over the region through next weekend. There will be enough
moisture beneath the ridge of high pressure to allow a few showers
and storms to develop each afternoon from the central mountain chain
eastward through eastern NM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
After retreating some late this morning, a backdoor cold front on
the eastern plains will receive a strong reinforcing push from the
northeast this afternoon and tonight.  The front will push through
gaps in the central mountain chain with a gusty east canyon wind
from Santa Fe southward. The strongest winds may reach 55 mph below
Tijeras Canyon in Albuquerque. Behind the front today through
Wednesday will be widespread low clouds with areas of late night and
early morning fog.  In addition, a series of disturbances crossing
the central and southern Rockies will work with the moisture to
produce a chance for rain and afternoon thunderstorms from the
central mountain chain eastward today through Wednesday morning.
Drier air moving in from the northwest should limit the coverage of
showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon to the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains eastward, and also to the east slopes of the south
central mountains. It will be cool today and Wednesday with high
temperatures varying from a few degrees above normal across the
southwest to as much as 29 degrees below normal across the east.
Today`s high temperature in Clayton (in the mid 40s) may set a new
record lowest maximum temperature for this date.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
Another round of widespread low cigs and patchy fog will redevelop
over eastern NM Wednesday night. Subtle changes will begin as low
level flow veers southerly by Thursday morning while an upper ridge
builds to the west. This will allow clearing to occur more quickly
after sunrise Thursday as a lee side trough deepens over the eastern
plains. Strong daytime heating will recycle lingering moisture over
the region and allow isold high- based showers and storms to fire up
around the southwest mts and central high terrain Thursday. A deeper
layer of southerly flow will develop Friday from northern MX into
southern NM as the upper ridge crests over the area. This will also
allow mid level moisture to creep northward into central and eastern
NM where greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms is possible.
Moisture and instability profiles are slightly more favorable for
larger footprints of wetting rainfall and perhaps a strong storm or
two. An even more favorable pattern for strong storms is still on the
horizon by Saturday as flow aloft strengthens and a dry line
sharpens over eastern NM.

44/Guyer

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Cool temperatures and higher humidities are expected through mid
week with a chance for precipitation mainly from the central
mountain chain eastward. Much of the present moisture will be
scoured out as drier air works its way over the area from the
northwest late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Then, a modestly moist
southerly, low-level return flow will develop Thursday. A
disturbance clipping northeast NM in northwest flow aloft, followed
by another moving over the state from the southwest will increase
the chance for showers and thunderstorms again Friday and Saturday
mainly over southern and eastern areas. Cells on the western fringe
of this moisture, mainly over central and southwest areas, will
probably be on the dry and gusty side with the potential for some
fire starts.

A low pressure system approaching the state from the west could
cause winds to strengthen again and humidities to plummet on Sunday
with a risk of critical fire weather conditions in some areas.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Wednesday for the
following zones... NMZ219.

&&

$$


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