282
FXUS65 KABQ 132317 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
417 PM MST Sat Dec 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 413 PM MST Sat Dec 13 2025

- Dry and unseasonably mild weather, outside of a cooler Sunday,
  persists through at least late next week across central and
  northern New Mexico.

- Breezy winds across the central highlands of eastern New Mexico
  next work week will create difficult crosswinds for large and
  high-profile vehicles. Strongest winds are expected on
  Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 1209 PM MST Sat Dec 13 2025

The pattern across North America and beyond continues to be defined
by a stark pressure height couplet with a very deep low approaching
the Great Lakes and a stout ridge over the intermountain west. On
the western periphery of the ridge there are also a couple of weak
troughs and inconsequential circulations over the far eastern
Pacific, set to come inland toward NM early next week. As the deep
Great Lakes low moves toward the northeast, a potent surface high
will fill in behind, overtaking the plains and sending a cold front
into eastern NM through the evening. This front will spill into the
Rio Grande valley tonight with a modest east wind (gusts of 15 to 25
mph) through vulnerable gaps near Santa Fe and Albuquerque. Boundary
layer humidity will surge up behind the front, particularly in the
far eastern plains with an easterly wind component also feeding into
the Canadian valley near Tucumcari. This will spread low stratus
clouds into our far eastern zones with MOS and Bufkit forecast
soundings also suggesting freezing fog developing at locales like
Clovis (NBM probabilities for visibility less than 1 mile are only
10% here) through Sunday morning. Low clouds and any fog that do
develop will likely be stubborn to erode and dissipate through
late Sunday morning and early into the afternoon hours. Otherwise,
another batch of high, fair weather cirrus will move in with the
ridge axis setting up overhead. Temperatures will be considerably
cooler across central to eastern NM Sunday, but only the east
central plains will actually drop below normal, just by a few
degrees with most remaining zones staying above by 5 to 15
degrees. This will be far different than midwestern states that
stay in the single digits Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1209 PM MST Sat Dec 13 2025

Sunday night`s temperatures will be relatively mild in most
locations with a lee-side trough quickly redeveloping and steering
south southwest winds back into the NM plains. The aforementioned
circulations from the eastern Pacific will move into AZ Sunday
night and into western NM by Monday. The absence of any
baroclinicity, dynamics, or even moisture with these will make it
difficult to even generate mid to high clouds over NM on Monday.
The lee-side trough will set up breezy conditions over the
central highlands with downsloping leading to compressional
warming in the eastern plains. Look for daytime temperatures to
rebound to 10 to 15 degrees above climatology over most of
northern and central NM Monday.

The remnants of the weak lows/troughs will shift toward eastern NM
and west TX on Tuesday with lee-side trough regeneration, continued
breeziness, dry conditions, and well above average temperatures.
With the lows/troughs exiting by Wednesday, the next stronger
segment of the polar jet will nose into the western ConUS with
speeds progged to surge up to 150-160 kt at 300 mb. While the core
of the jet will stay north of NM, stronger speeds aloft will build
in (40-50 kt at 700 mb near and to the lee of the Sangre de
Cristos). This will translate to breezy to windy conditions over
the Sangres and nearby highlands Wednesday. Pressure heights would
actually rise a few decameters Wednesday with downsloping also in
full force, all leading to warmer temperatures with daytime
record highs for some.

A weak front will enter far eastern NM Wednesday night, setting
temperatures back just a few degrees, but above average warmth will
still prevail into Thursday. Dry zonal flow persists Thursday and
also into Friday with temperatures soaring 15-22 degrees above
normal as the work week comes to a close.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 413 PM MST Sat Dec 13 2025

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist except behind a
backdoor cold front at KTCC and KROW, where MVFR and IFR
conditions will develop overnight. Improvement will be slow on
Sunday, especially at KROW where MVFR cigs may hold on most of the
day. Northeast wind gusts to between 20-25kts will be common
behind the front. The front will create a gusty east canyon wind
at KABQ later this evening, but gusts are forecast to remain well
below Airport Weather Warning threshold. Otherwise, winds will be
light.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1209 PM MST Sat Dec 13 2025

No widespread areas of critical fire weather are projected for the
next several days. However, periodic above normal, and even
record-breaking, temperatures will be common with dry conditions.
Afternoon relative humidity will typically fall to 15-35% each
day with areas to the lee (east northeast) of the highlands
commonly hosting the lowest values. Light to moderate breezes
(10-20 mph) will be typical with stronger bouts of gusts to 30-35
mph being more common on Wednesday along and east of the central
mountain chain. Low vertical mixing heights and mostly
inefficient transport winds will keep smoke ventilation and
dispersion rates low through the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  28  56  29  54 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  22  57  23  57 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  24  55  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  16  60  18  59 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  21  59  22  59 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  19  58  19  61 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  23  63  24  60 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  29  56  30  60 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  25  57  26  59 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  25  66  27  67 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  30  69  29  70 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  24  51  24  52 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  32  51  34  55 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  26  56  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  28  53  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  15  49  15  50 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................   3  52   3  54 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  21  54  21  56 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  24  58  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  26  56  28  60 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  29  54  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  27  54  28  57 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  34  56  35  58 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  35  57  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  27  59  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  31  57  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  25  58  26  60 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  31  58  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  24  58  26  60 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  30  58  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  25  57  27  59 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  33  55  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  31  57  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  32  59  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  28  53  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  29  54  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  24  55  29  57 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  22  56  23  60 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  25  52  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  25  57  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  26  57  29  58 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  34  59  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  25  54  28  58 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  23  54  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  21  55  25  63 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  20  59  23  66 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  24  56  30  65 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  24  52  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  23  51  26  65 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  26  56  28  66 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  27  53  31  68 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  24  54  30  69 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  26  48  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  26  49  27  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  26  51  27  64 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  32  50  27  62 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  29  52  31  69 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  27  52  29  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...11