Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK

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FXAK68 PAFC 141313 CCA

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
513 AM AKDT Fri Jun 14 2019


A persistent area of low pressure remains anchored well south of
Cold Bay this morning, with an attendant surface front lifting
northeast through the Gulf. Several disturbances aloft continue to
pivot around this feature in a cyclonic (counter clockwise)-like
fashion. This is helping to foster increasing shower coverage
across the Alaska Peninsula and for portions of the Bering Sea
and southwest Alaska, as seen in this mornings, water vapor and
Doppler radar imagery.



The models remain in excellent agreement through the weekend,
with some slight improvement for Monday and Tuesday, before
quickly degrading in their continuity of forecasts for the middle
to latter part of the week. In general, much of southwest and
southcentral Alaska will transition towards a more cloudy and
somewhat cooler pattern over the next several days, with
increasing chances for rainfall.


PANC...Light winds will continue through the morning hours, before
increasing into the 20 to 25 knot range for this afternoon and
evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.



A warm front is moving into the southern Gulf this morning
and will move to the north Gulf coast tonight. This is bringing
in increased moisture to the area and will cause some gusty winds
through channeled terrain in the typical locations such as
Turnagain Arm. This front is also causing the atmosphere to become
more convectively stable and therefore the only potential for
thunderstorms will be limited to along the Alaska Range this
afternoon and evening.

The windward side of the mountains will also see rain with this
system where the leeward sides will see a significant amount of
downslope through Saturday Although there will be some light rain
of showers that do make it across the mountains at times. Another
low will move into the Gulf on Sunday bringing in a reinforcing
shot of moisture to the region.


A pattern change is underway over Southwest as a low approaches
the southern Alaska Peninsula. As the associated front lifts
inland this morning, showers are expected across the Bristol Bay
area and along the Kuskokwim Delta coast. Meanwhile, a surface
high maintains its hold over the Middle Kuskokwim Valley until
this evening, when an upper level disturbance approaches from the
north and generates instability. As a result, showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over the
Middle Kuskokwim Valley and Kuskokwim Delta Coast, including
Nunivak Island. As the front over the Alaska Peninsula continues
to move inland, the bulk of the precipitation will be
concentrated along the Alaska Range for Saturday. By Sunday, the
area of low pressure tracks eastward toward the Gulf of Alaska,
allowing for additional showers to spread in more broadly over



A low centered south of the central Aleutians has lifted a front
over the eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula. As a
result, steady rain over the eastern Aleutians today will taper
off by Saturday as the low moves eastward. Out west, northerly
flow continues over the western Aleutians. An upper level wave
moving southward over the far western Bering may generate showers
throughout the day over the western Aleutians. As the low
impacting the eastern Aleutians progresses eastward, high
pressure will be able to move in from the west, bringing drier
conditions to the western Aleutians for Sunday.


.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

On Sunday...a nearly stationary occluded surface low will be
positioned south of Kodiak Island. Gale force winds and rain are
expected along its front which stretches across the southern gulf
to just south of the Alaska Peninsula through Sunday night and
then taper down to gusty small craft advisory winds on Monday.
This system is expected to fill on an eastward track Monday
afternoon through Tuesday with any threat of gales remaining south
of the gulf.


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The long range forecast starting on Sunday night will be rainy
across the gulf with scattered showers across the southern
mainland as an organized low spins south of Kodiak Island. This
system begins to track slowly east on Monday with rain/showers
tapering down through Tuesday. Meanwhile, a ridge builds across
the Bering bringing low clouds and patchy fog with a stable air
mass setting up through mid week. Models continue to struggle on
handling the movement of the Gulf there is fairly high
uncertainty Tuesday through Thursday night for precipitation
trends. Toward the middle of next week...expect drier conditions
for much of the southern mainland with above normal temperatures.
The Bering ridge is expected to break down toward the end of the
week as a North Pacific low pushes to the Western Aleutians while
a second low dives along the west coast.





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