Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK

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FXAK68 PAFC 140111

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
511 PM AKDT Thu Jun 13 2019

Generally fair skies with abundant sunshine  was evident across
much of the southern mainland. This allowed for the develop of
cumulus clouds which likely will give way to showers and
thunderstorms as the thermal trough strengthens this afternoon.
Areas of low clouds and fog continued over the Gulf and portions
of Bristol Bay and adjacent coastal areas. A weather front and
associated low center across the easterly Aleutians has spread
clouds and some light rain across much of the Alaska Peninsula
and Aleutians.



Models are good agreement through the short term. Forecast
confidence is high. Favored model was the shiny new FV3-GFS.


PANC...General VFR conditions are expected through Friday. Gusty
southeast winds are expected across the airport complex this
evening, then diminishing after midnight.


3/Thursday night through Sunday)...

Low pressure is approaching from the Gulf of Alaska while high
pressure aloft is present over the mainland. This area of high
pressure has limited convective today, with some isolated areas
of convection present over the Talkeetnas and Copper River Basin.

Over the next day, low pressure will continue to move north and
create a pattern shift in the weather. It will bring cooler and
cloudier conditions to much of southcentral AK. It is a pretty
weak system, so just some isolated showers will occur as the low
pushes inland. It is basically a repeat of the low earlier this
week. The low will also keep convection quiet, so thunderstorm
activity should continue to diminish the next couple of days.
Forecast confidence is still high as the weather is panning out as
expected. Overall, showery activity for most places going into
the weekend but generally quiet weather.



A surface high will gradually build in over Southwest from the
east, providing generally warmer and drier conditions today.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Middle
Kuskokwim Valley and interior areas of the Kuskokwim Delta this
afternoon. A front associated with a North Pacific low will lift
over the Alaska Peninsula and move inland over Southwest for
Saturday, spreading in showers along the southern Alaska Range.
The Bristol Bay and Kuskokwim Delta coast areas should remain dry
due to down-sloping, though an occasional passing shower cannot be
ruled out Saturday afternoon.



Low pressure centered south of the central Aleutians will lift a
front over the eastern Aleutians today bringing cloud cover, rain,
and southeasterly flow. As the low moves eastward toward the Gulf
for the weekend, the rain will taper but cloudy skies will
persist. Meanwhile, high pressure in place over the western
Bering is keeping things relatively dry and calm.


.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

On Sunday...a nearly stationary occluded surface low will be
positioned south of Kodiak Island. Gale force winds and rain are
expected along its front which stretches across the southern gulf
to just south of the Alaska Peninsula through Sunday night and
then taper down to gusty small craft advisory winds on Monday.
This system is expected to fill on an eastward track Monday
afternoon through Tuesday with any threat of gales remaining south
of the gulf.


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The long range forecast starting on Sunday night will be rainy
across the gulf with scattered showers across the southern
mainland as an organized low spins south of Kodiak Island. This
system begins to track slowly east on Monday with rain/showers
tapering down through Tuesday. Meanwhile, a ridge builds across
the Bering bringing low clouds and patchy fog with a stable air
mass setting up through mid week. Models continue to struggle on
handling the movement of the Gulf there is fairly high
uncertainty Tuesday through Thursday night for precipitation
trends. Toward the middle of next week...expect drier conditions
for much of the southern mainland with above normal temperatures.
The Bering ridge is expected to break down toward the end of the
week as a North Pacific low pushes to the Western Aleutians while
a second low dives along the west coast.





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