Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK

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000
FXAK68 PAFC 141245
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
445 AM AKDT Fri Jun 14 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A persistent area of low pressure remains anchored well south of
Cold Bay this morning, with an attendant surface front lifting
northeast through the Gulf. Several disturbances aloft continue to
pivot around this feature in a cyclonic (counter clockwise)-like
fashion. This is helping to foster increasing shower coverage
across the Alaska Peninsula and for portions of the Bering Sea
and southwest Alaska, as seen in this mornings, water vapor and
Doppler radar imagery.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models remain in excellent agreement through the weekend,
with some slight improvement for Monday and Tuesday, before
quickly degrading in their continuity of forecasts for the middle
to latter part of the week. In general, much of southwest and
southcentral Alaska will transition towards a more cloudy and
somewhat cooler pattern over the next several days, with
increasing chances for rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Light winds will continue through the morning hours, before
increasing into the 20 to 25 knot range for this afternoon and
evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A warm front is moving into the southern Gulf this morning
and will move to the north GUlf coast tonight. This is bringing
in increased moisture to the area and will cause some gusty winds
through channeled terrain in the typical locations such as
Turnagain Arm. This front is also causing the atmosphere to become
more convectively stable and therefore the only potential for
thunderstorms will be limited to along the Alaska Range this
afternoon and evening.

The windward side of the mountains will also see rain with this
system where the leeward sides will see a significant amount of
downslope through Saturday Although there will be some light rain
of showers that do make it across the mountains at times. Another
low will move into the Gulf on Sunday bringing in a reinforcing
shot of moisture to the region.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

A surface high will gradually build in over Southwest from the
east, providing generally warmer and drier conditions today.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Middle
Kuskokwim Valley and interior areas of the Kuskokwim Delta this
afternoon. A front associated with a North Pacific low will lift
over the Alaska Peninsula and move inland over Southwest for
Saturday, spreading in showers along the southern Alaska Range.
The Bristol Bay and Kuskokwim Delta coast areas should remain dry
due to down-sloping, though an occasional passing shower cannot be
ruled out Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

Low pressure centered south of the central Aleutians will lift a
front over the eastern Aleutians today bringing cloud cover, rain,
and southeasterly flow. As the low moves eastward toward the Gulf
for the weekend, the rain will taper but cloudy skies will
persist. Meanwhile, high pressure in place over the western
Bering is keeping things relatively dry and calm.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

On Sunday...a nearly stationary occluded surface low will be
positioned south of Kodiak Island. Gale force winds and rain are
expected along its front which stretches across the southern gulf
to just south of the Alaska Peninsula through Sunday night and
then taper down to gusty small craft advisory winds on Monday.
This system is expected to fill on an eastward track Monday
afternoon through Tuesday with any threat of gales remaining south
of the gulf.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The long range forecast starting on Sunday night will be rainy
across the gulf with scattered showers across the southern
mainland as an organized low spins south of Kodiak Island. This
system begins to track slowly east on Monday with rain/showers
tapering down through Tuesday. Meanwhile, a ridge builds across
the Bering bringing low clouds and patchy fog with a stable air
mass setting up through mid week. Models continue to struggle on
handling the movement of the Gulf low...so there is fairly high
uncertainty Tuesday through Thursday night for precipitation
trends. Toward the middle of next week...expect drier conditions
for much of the southern mainland with above normal temperatures.
The Bering ridge is expected to break down toward the end of the
week as a North Pacific low pushes to the Western Aleutians while
a second low dives along the west coast.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KO
MARINE/LONG TERM...KH


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