Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 052322 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 622 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure slowly builds into the area through this weekend with dry weather continuing through next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 615 PM EST Friday... Sfc high pressure continues to build in from the NW tonight. The northwest winds will diminish this evening and be between 5 and 10 mph overnight. Dew points will slowly rise overnight into the teens and lower 20s by tomorrow morning. Overnight low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s for most, and around 30 near the coast. Skies will remain mostly clear tonight with some high clouds moving in late from a storm system that will track well to our south. The W/NW flow will continue through Saturday. High temperatures will be slightly warmer than today, low 50s west of the Chesapeake Bay and mid 40s for the Eastern Shore. A weak surface boundary tries to push into the area from the north Saturday evening but may stall just north of the eastern shore. No precip expected but may increase cloud cover over the NE portions of the area. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM EST Friday... Dry cold front will cross the area early Saturday night. May only see a slight increase in cloud cover as the front moves through. Lows Sunday morning will range from the low/mid 20s inland to upper 20s/low 30s along the coast of SE VA and NE NC. Highs are forecast to be a bit cooler on Sunday behind the front with low 40s on the Ern Shore and mid to upper 40s in most other locations W and S of the Ches Bay. Dew points will likely drop into the single digit again Sunday afternoon with RH values 15-20 percent. Sun night will be the coldest night of the period. Went slightly below guidance since the high pressure will be centered right over the area. Lows will fall into the low- mid 20s inland and upper 20s- around 30F in coastal SE VA and NE NC. The warming trend will begin Monday with dry condition continuing as sfc high pressure moves off the Carolina coast. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s along and west of I-95 and upper 40s along the Atlantic coast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM EST Friday... The dry pattern continues through next week with no discernible chance of rain until Friday. A warming trend will also develop next week with high temps increasing each day. High pressure moves off of the SE coast Monday night, settling offshore, and gradually shifting east through the week. This will allow for a prolonged period of SW flow through the week. Although we entered March with soil moisture unseasonably high, this persistent stretch of dry days is already beginning to dry out fire fuels. By next week, this could become an issue in regards to fire weather, especially once temps begin to warm through the week. At this time, Wed and Thurs look to be the biggest threats as winds will begin to pick up a bit. Will keep a close eye on this. Otherwise, some overrunning showers may try to develop Fri well ahead of a cold front, but subsidence aloft will likely act to negate this chance. Have therefore added only a slight chance (15- 20% PoP) of a few isolated showers in the northern 1/3 of the FA Fri. Highs will range from the mid 60s W to the low 60s E (upper 50s to low 60s Eastern Shore) Tues, the upper 60s to low 70s Wed (mid 60s Eastern Shore), low 70s Thurs (mid to upper 60s Eastern Shore), and the low to mid 70s Fri (mid to upper 60s Eastern Shore). Low will range from the low 30s Mon night, upper 30s to low 40s Tues night, mid to upper 40s Wed night, low 50s (upper 40s to low 50s Eastern Shore) Thurs night, and upper 40s to low 50s Fri night. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 615 PM EST Friday... VFR conditions through the 00Z period. NW winds tonight 10-15 kts at SBY and 10 kts or less elsewhere. Winds on Saturday W/NW 10 kts or less. Mainly clear skies tonight with high clouds moving in from the south overnight into Saturday. OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR conditions persist through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week. && .MARINE... As of 315 PM EST Friday... SCA`s for most of the Bay and the coastal waters south of Parramore Island will expire at 4 pm this afternoon. The SCAs for the rivers and Currituck sound were allowed to expire earlier this afternoon. Have extended SCA for ANZ630 (Smith Pt to Windmill Pt) as well as SCAs for the coastal water zones north of Parramore Island through 4 AM. NW winds 10-15 kt will continue through Saturday morning for most of the waters. However, a weaker, secondary CAA surge is expected to impact the aforementioned zones later this evening into early Saturday morning bringing a period of increased winds 15-25 kt. Seas 3-4 ft late this afternoon subsiding to 2 ft by Saturday afternoon. Waves in the Bay 2-3 ft through tonight then 1-2 ft on Saturday. High pressure builds over the region thru the weekend then off the coast early next week. Expect benign marine conditions thru early next week with north winds aob 15 kts thru Mon, turning SSW Mon night thru at least Wed. Seas average 2-3 ft. Waves 1-2 ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ630-650- 652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP/ERI NEAR TERM...CMF/CP SHORT TERM...CP/ERI LONG TERM...RMM AVIATION...CMF MARINE...JDM

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