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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250046
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
846 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will remain stalled well to our south through the
weekend. High pressure will become centered over New England
Sunday night through Tuesday as low pressure is slow to lift
northeast well off the Carolina coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 845 PM EDT Saturday...

Shortwave aloft rotates SE through the region tonight, but deep
layered moisture becomes confined to far SE sections as drier
air filters in from the NW, so will focus chance PoPs across the
se through the nite. Otw, mainly dry with pt cldy skies north,
cldy to mstly cldy south. Lows mid-upper 50s NW to around 70F SE.

By Sunday morning, the surface high looks like it will push the
moisture far enough south to limit the chances for any showers
to mainly NE NC and far SE VA with drying of the mid and upper
level expected to continue through the day on Sunday suppressing
the pcpn farther south through the day. However, the low level
moisture should remain in place with strong easterly flow
through about 850 mb. That may be enough to hold clouds in place
and bring a few isolated showers to mainly areas along/E of
I-95. Have a 20% PoP in these areas by aftn. Highs will avg in
the upper 70s to around 80F under partly to mostly sunny skies
N, with partly to mostly cloudy skies S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Saturday...

The forecast for Sunday night through Tue will be largely
dependent on the development/evolution of a potential tropical
low pressure system moving slowly NE (but remaining offshore of)
the SE US coast. Given that this is likely to be tropical, will
be disregarding the NAM as it generally struggles greatly with
anything tropical. Following a GFS/ECMWF/WPC blend (with fairly
decent agreement) centers the sfc low NE off the GA/north FL
coast Sun night, and lifts it slowly NE well off the Carolina
coast Mon-Tue. High pressure generally remains in place over New
England and Atlantic Canada through the period. This keep a
persistent E to NE low level onshore flow into the local area.
Deeper moisture looks to stay offshore, but will see a gradual
increase in dew pts and Precipitable water values through the
period. Have maintained mostly 20-30% PoPs for both Mon/Tue,
primarily due to the moisture overrunning the wedging high
rather than the sfc low itself (as it will be well offshore).
Again will need to monitor the potential tropical
development/evolution early next week as a shift closer to the
coast would increase impacts (mainly from higher PoPs/heavier
rain potential). Highs will be mainly in the upper 70s/lower 80s
Mon, and 80-85F Tue, with lows in the 60s Sun night/Mon am and
mid 60s to lower 70s Mon night/Tue am. Skies will be partly to
mostly cloudy.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Saturday...

The early part of the extended forecast will depend much upon any
development and potential track of the tropical disturbance
currently off the FL coast. Latest NHC outlook keeps this system
will stay well off the local coast. Despite that, given the
proximity to the tropical system and the potential for some tropical
type showers to move across the area with a persistent NE-ENE flow,
and some reinforcing moisture/lift from weak upper disturbances
moving across the Mid Atlc and NE states in the W-SW flow aloft,
will maintain low chance PoPs Mon night through Thu.

An upper-level trough will move into the Great Lakes for the end of
next week and the weekend. A cold front will approach the area from
the west. Ahead of the front, conditions should remain mostly dry
with temperature approaching 90 inland and mid 80s along the coast
for the first half of the holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Saturday...

The cold front has settled across the sern states with high
pressure well to the north of the local area this eve. Weak
energy moving ene in the flow is resulting in sct light rain
shwrs across NC and southside Va. Based off the latest high res
data, kept VCSH at ECG thru 12Z as the moisture lingers there.
Otw, generally a VFR CIG btwn 5-8K FT across the TAF sites
tonight. High pressure to the north will tend to sct out the
CU Sunday at RIC/SBY/PHF while sern TAF sites remain sct-bkn CU.
Gusty ne wind (15-20kts) at ORF/ECG, aob 10 kts elsewhere.

OUTLOOK: Low pressure developing along a stalled front and high
pressure centered to our N/NE will keep an easterly flow across
the region Mon-Tue, allowing for ample moisture, a chance for
showers, and the potential for sub-VFR ceilings from time to time
(especially at eastern TAF locations) Mon-Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 415 PM EDT Saturday...

Late this aftn, sfc high pressure was centered over the ern
Great Lakes, with a frontal boundary now well to the south.
NE winds were mainly 10-20 kt over the waters, with waves 1-3 ft
and seas 3-5 ft. The high will build eastward to over nrn New
England tonight thru Mon, as weak low pressure will lift NE off
the SE coast. This will result in persistent NE winds of 10-20
kt with gusts to 25 kt possible thru the period. Waves will
build to 3-4 ft in the Ches Bay, and seas will build to 5-8 ft
over the ocean. So, at this time, have SCA`s for all the waters
except zns 635/636/637 thru the short term period.

SCA conditions for seas will likely linger into Wed morning, as
the flow remains onshore due to low pressure out over the
ocean.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...AJB/LKB
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...AJZ/TMG