-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
147
FXUS61 KAKQ 122350
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
750 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern is expected to persist through next
week with scattered thunderstorms each day. Locally heavy rainfall
and localized flooding will be possible each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 120 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and humid inland this afternoon with heat indices in the
  lower 100s.

- Scattered showers and storms continue this afternoon with
  locally heavy rain and flash flooding possible.

A surface boundary was located near the Richmond Metro this
afternoon which has served as a focal point for convection. CAMs
have vastly underdone coverage and timing of convection this
afternoon. As such, have increased PoPs across the area to
25-40% (away from the coast) with scattered showers and storms
expected. Will note that these PoPs are above NBM guidance but
may still be too low in spots. Given 3500-4000 J/kg of SBCAPE,
1.6-1.7" PWATs, and very slow storm motions, locally heavy rain
and flash flooding is possible. The near-term greatest flash
flooding threat is the Richmond Metro where a Flash Flood
Warning has been issued given congealing storms over the city.
However, given that it is only 1 PM (as of writing this
discussion) there is plenty of daylight left for additional
storm development with additional flooding possible through this
afternoon. WPC has maintained a Marginal risk for excessive
rainfall across most of the inland areas today. Will note that
CAMs show the potential for a line (or cluster) of storms moving
into the Piedmont this evening. While this may be too late, if
rounds of showers and storms continue into the evening, a
locally higher flash flooding threat would be possible.

Additionally, given the very high instability and DCAPE of
1100-1200 J/kg, a few strong to severe downbursts are possible.
However, given the very weak flow aloft, current thinking is
that most storms should be of the pulse variety. Brief strong
wind gusts are the main threat from water- loaded downdrafts
this afternoon and early evening. SPC has maintained the
western tier of counties in a Marginal Risk of severe.

Otherwise, temps as of 1 PM ranged from the mid 80 to lower 90s
with dew points in the 70s and heat indices in the mid 90s to
lower 100s. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with
maximum heat indices in the lower 100s away from the coast are
expected. Warm and muggy overnight with lows in the 70s. Some
fog and low stratus are possible, especially in areas that see
rainfall during the afternoon/evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered storms are expected Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

- Locally heavy rain and localized flash flooding are possible Sunday,
  Monday, and Tuesday.

- There is a Marginal risk for a few severe storms on Sunday
  with damaging winds the primary threat.

A moist and unstable airmass remains in place across the region into
next week with daily chances for mainly afternoon and evening
scattered storms. SBCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg will likely continue
through at least Mon with weak shear aloft. As such, while
widespread, organized severe weather is not anticipated at this
time, a few strong to severe storms will continue to be possible
(similar to today). For now, SPC has a Marginal risk (level 1/5) for
damaging winds on Sun along and west of I-95. However, given greater
storm coverage on Mon, would not be surprised if Mon gets a severe
threat in future updates.

PoPs increase to 40-50% Sun afternoon and 50-65% across the NW half
of the area Sun evening. The higher PoPs in the late afternoon and
evening are due to CAMs showing a line of storms forming off the lee
trough and moving east into the NW half of the FA. A similar
situation is expected on Mon with PoPs again increasing to 50-65% in
the afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west. The
difference on Mon is that a larger portion of the area is likely to
experience storms. A cold front becomes stationary and washes out
across central VA on Tue. As such, scattered storms will again be
possible with the highest confidence across far southern VA and NE
NC. Given the wet antecedent conditions and day after day of
locally heavy rain, flash flooding will continue to be a concern
through early next week. WPC has a Slight risk for excessive
rainfall (ERO) across the NW Piedmont on Sun with a Marginal ERO
covering the rest of the NW half of the area to roughly the
I-95 corridor. WPC also has a Marginal ERO across nearly the
entire FA on Mon and the SW third of the FA on Tue. Will
reevaluate a potential Flood Watch tonight to allow for an
assessment of how much rain falls today and to see if there is a
stronger signal for heavy rain/flooding on the 00z CAMs.

Outside of daily convection, typically Summer heat continues with
highs in the mid 80s NE to lower 90s SW (most in the upper 80s to
lower 90s) Sun and Mon and upper 80s to lower 90s everywhere on Tue.
Given dew points in the mid-upper 70s each day, heat indices in the
upper 90s to lower 100s is expected all three days. That being said,
current model guidance suggest we should remain below Heat Advisory
criteria. Overnight lows in the low-mid 70s are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Seasonally hot weather continues through next week.

- A wet pattern continues with daily, mainly diurnal chances
  for scattered storms through the week.

Aloft, a ridge builds over the East Coast during the middle of the
week before sliding offshore by late week. At the surface, a washed
out front remains across the FA through late week with a cold front
approaching by next weekend. As such, expect temps to warm from the
upper 80s to lower 90s on Wed to the lower 90s Thu and low-mid 90s
Fri. Temps in the lower 90s are expected Sat. Dew points remain in
the 70s through the week with heat indices in the upper 90s to lower
100s Wed and Sat and lower 100s on Thu and Fri. There does appear to
be some potential for Heat Advisory criteria by Thu and Fri with the
best chance on Fri (heat indices potentially 105-109F).
Additionally, the wet pattern continues with daily chances for
mainly diurnal afternoon and evening scattered storms through the
week. Given the recent rainfall and the rainfall expected to fall
before the middle of the week, localized flooding looks to continue
to be a concern.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 750 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions across area terminals should persist for much of
this evening. Any lingering showers and storms mainly west of
the KRIC terminal should decrease in coverage over the next 2-3
hours. Light/variable winds expected overnight, with high
confidence for IFR/LCL LIFR CIGs/VSBY along the coast
(SBY/ORF/ECG/PHF) in patchy fog/low stratus, potentially
reaching KRIC toward sunrise early Sunday morning. Morning
stratus/stratocu will clear by mid morning, with predominate
VFR thereafter. Afternoon showers and storms will be possible
again tomorrow, but confidence at any one terminal is not high
enough to include in the terminal forecast at this time.

Outlook: Another round of isolated to scattered afternoon-late
evening tstms are expected to recur each day into early next
week, along with the potential for early morning fog/stratus.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 339 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue outside of local influences from
  afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

Benign marine conditions will continue through mid-next week. High
pressure will remain dominant and maintain a weak gradient across
the region. The wind is expected to be SE 5-10 kt Sunday with a
slight diurnal increase during the late aftn/early evening
hours as we are seeing today, and then mainly S to SW 5-10 kt
early next week. By Wednesday afternoon, guidance is hinting at
the development of a low along a front just to our north. The
gradient between the feature and the high in the western north
Atlantic will tighten, resulting in increasing winds. Wednesday
night through Thursday night will be the best chance to see SCA
conditions at least in the Bay. We will continue to monitor any
trends in this timeframe, and adjust the forecast as necessary.
Sub-SCA conditions will likely return by Friday. Each day will
feature at least isolated to scattered storms, with the main
marine hazards being brief strong wind gusts, frequent
lightning, and blinding downpours that will greatly reduce
visibilities.

Seas will be mainly 2-3 ft and waves in the Bay will be 1 ft, with
the occasionally 1-2 ft seas during the afternoon wind increase. By
mid-week, seas will build to 3-4 ft as winds increase and remain
elevated through late week. Waves in the Bay will increase to 2-3
ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...MAM/NB
MARINE...AJZ/NB