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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 052322
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
622 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slowly builds into the area through this weekend
with dry weather continuing through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 615 PM EST Friday...

Sfc high pressure continues to build in from the NW tonight.
The northwest winds will diminish this evening and be between 5
and 10 mph overnight. Dew points will slowly rise overnight into
the teens and lower 20s by tomorrow morning. Overnight low
temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s for most, and
around 30 near the coast. Skies will remain mostly clear
tonight with some high clouds moving in late from a storm
system that will track well to our south.

The W/NW flow will continue through Saturday. High temperatures
will be slightly warmer than today, low 50s west of the
Chesapeake Bay and mid 40s for the Eastern Shore. A weak
surface boundary tries to push into the area from the north
Saturday evening but may stall just north of the eastern shore.
No precip expected but may increase cloud cover over the NE
portions of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EST Friday...

Dry cold front will cross the area early Saturday night. May
only see a slight increase in cloud cover as the front moves
through. Lows Sunday morning will range from the low/mid 20s
inland to upper 20s/low 30s along the coast of SE VA and NE NC.
Highs are forecast to be a bit cooler on Sunday behind the
front with low 40s on the Ern Shore and mid to upper 40s in most
other locations W and S of the Ches Bay. Dew points will likely
drop into the single digit again Sunday afternoon with RH
values 15-20 percent. Sun night will be the coldest night of
the period. Went slightly below guidance since the high
pressure will be centered right over the area. Lows will fall
into the low- mid 20s inland and upper 20s- around 30F in
coastal SE VA and NE NC. The warming trend will begin Monday
with dry condition continuing as sfc high pressure moves off the
Carolina coast. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper
50s along and west of I-95 and upper 40s along the Atlantic
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM EST Friday...

The dry pattern continues through next week with no discernible
chance of rain until Friday. A warming trend will also develop next
week with high temps increasing each day.

High pressure moves off of the SE coast Monday night, settling
offshore, and gradually shifting east through the week. This will
allow for a prolonged period of SW flow through the week. Although
we entered March with soil moisture unseasonably high, this
persistent stretch of dry days is already beginning to dry out fire
fuels. By next week, this could become an issue in regards to fire
weather, especially once temps begin to warm through the week. At
this time, Wed and Thurs look to be the biggest threats as winds
will begin to pick up a bit. Will keep a close eye on this.
Otherwise, some overrunning showers may try to develop Fri well
ahead of a cold front, but subsidence aloft will likely act to
negate this chance. Have therefore added only a slight chance (15-
20% PoP) of a few isolated showers in the northern 1/3 of the FA
Fri.

Highs will range from the mid 60s W to the low 60s E (upper 50s to
low 60s Eastern Shore) Tues, the upper 60s to low 70s Wed (mid 60s
Eastern Shore), low 70s Thurs (mid to upper 60s Eastern Shore), and
the low to mid 70s Fri (mid to upper 60s Eastern Shore). Low will
range from the low 30s Mon night, upper 30s to low 40s Tues night,
mid to upper 40s Wed night, low 50s (upper 40s to low 50s Eastern
Shore) Thurs night, and upper 40s to low 50s Fri night.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 615 PM EST Friday...

VFR conditions through the 00Z period. NW winds tonight 10-15
kts at SBY and 10 kts or less elsewhere. Winds on Saturday W/NW
10 kts or less. Mainly clear skies tonight with high clouds
moving in from the south overnight into Saturday.

OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR conditions persist through the remainder of
the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EST Friday...

SCA`s for most of the Bay and the coastal waters south of Parramore
Island will expire at 4 pm this afternoon. The SCAs for the rivers
and Currituck sound were allowed to expire earlier this afternoon.
Have extended SCA for ANZ630 (Smith Pt to Windmill Pt) as well as
SCAs for the coastal water zones north of Parramore Island through 4
AM. NW winds 10-15 kt will continue through Saturday morning for
most of the waters. However, a weaker, secondary CAA surge is
expected to impact the aforementioned zones later this evening into
early Saturday morning bringing a period of increased winds 15-25
kt. Seas 3-4 ft late this afternoon subsiding to 2 ft by Saturday
afternoon. Waves in the Bay 2-3 ft through tonight then 1-2 ft on
Saturday.

High pressure builds over the region thru the weekend then off the
coast early next week. Expect benign marine conditions thru early
next week with north winds aob 15 kts thru Mon, turning SSW Mon
night thru at least Wed. Seas average 2-3 ft. Waves 1-2 ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ630-650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CP/ERI
NEAR TERM...CMF/CP
SHORT TERM...CP/ERI
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...CMF
MARINE...JDM