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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 121818
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
218 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds north of the region tonight...as low
pressure tracks across the southeast states. High pressure
settles over the local area Thursday night.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 215 PM EDT Wednesday...

Latest analysis reveals a wavy sfc boundary draped from se SC
W-SW across the deep south from south central GA into S LA.
to the north, ~1032 mb high pressure was noted from the upper
midwest down into the lower Great Lakes and the OH valley. Upper
air analysis shows dampening mid-level shortwave pushing across
the region toward the Carolina/SE VA coast. Regional Radar/MRMS
data showing overrunning (stratiform) rainfall in association
with this feature pushing W to E along and south of the US-58
corridor (along/SSE KFKN to KNTU).

Light isentropic lift/overrunning rain will move across the
region through mid-aftn, pushing farther south into Ern/SE NC
this evening. Did continue gradual clearing trend through the
aftn, with PoPs also ramping down over the SE CWA steadily into
the late aftn hours. The slight chc PoP lingers across NE NC
into early this evening. Highs into the upper 50s to low 60s
north...with clouds and rain holding temps in the mid to upper
50s south of US-460 including Hampton Roads metro into NC.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 215 PM EDT Wednesday...

High pressure over the Ohio Valley will build into the Mid-
Atlantic Thu into Thu night...resulting in continued cool/dry
wx on light N-NW winds. Highs Thu range from the m60s to around
70F under a sunny to mostly sunny sky. Clear and cool Thu night
with early morning lows in the l-m 40s inland...u40s- l50s
along the coast.

12z ECMWF/GFS still showing another weakening shortwave drops
across the area Friday morning into Friday aftn, bringing little
more than some increasing clouds for later Friday. PWs remain
low, so have held PoPs at silent range (AoB 14%) for Friday, but
some spotty showers or sprinkles are possible across the VA
piedmont Fri aftn and early evening before clearing into Friday
night.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 215 PM EDT Wednesday...

Sfc high then builds over the region Fri night over the upcoming
weekend...eventually sliding offshore late Sun. This should
translate to slowly moderating temperatures throughout the
medium range forecast period. Highs will be in the mid to upper
70s over the weekend. Early morning low temperatures start out
in the upper 40s to lower 50s over the weekend, and then lower
to mid 50s as we turn to early next week.

Looking ahead, strengthening Bermuda high looks to portend a
continuation of the warming trend into the middle of next week,
with more typical diurnally-driven convection by the middle of
next week.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Wednesday...

Rain continues over southern third of the area (ORF-ECG),
though widespread VFR CIGS expected through this afternoon.
Clouds clearing out late aftn/tonight from NW to SE, with VCSH
mention at ECG/ORF dropping off by 00z/Thu. Clear sky/light
winds tonight,as sfc high pressure builds into the local area
through Thu.

Outlook: VFR conditions persist through the upcoming weekend. A
weak upper level trough will bring a slight chc of SHRA Fri, to
be followed by dry conditions late Fri and Sat. A warm front is
forecast to move through the FA late in the upcoming weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 AM EDT Wednesday...

Stronger area of high pressure is building into the region this
morning. Winds have turned north and increased to 20-25 kt and
will continue until mid-morning Wednesday. Gusts will be as high
a 30 kt. SCAs remain in effect for most of our area coastal
waters through Wednesday morning. Winds across Atlantic Ocean
coastal waters north of Cape Charles are expected to remain
below SCA level. However, wind gusts will briefly reach 25 kt
early this morning. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay will quickly
build to 3-4 ft this morning and into early Wednesday
afternoon. Seas will build to around 5 ft south of Cape Charles
today.

Winds diminish to 5-15 kt Wednesday afternoon along with waves
subsiding to 1-2 ft and seas 2-3 ft as the pressure gradient
relaxes. High pressure and sub-SCA conditions expected from
Wednesday afternoon through the remainder of the week and the
weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ658.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...ALB/MAM
MARINE...CMF/CP