Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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633 FXUS61 KAKQ 071957 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 257 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warm temperatures are again expected today. Isolated to scattered showers are possible this afternoon into tonight. A better chance for showers arrives Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 1045 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Isolated to scattered showers are expected late this afternoon through tonight, with a thunderstorm or two also possible. - Highs around 80 degrees are expected again today. Latest analysis reveals high pressure at the sfc and aloft still centered well offshore of the Mid Atlantic/SE coast, with deep layered moisture streaming north across the southeast and mid-Atlantic region ahead of a cold front that is just approaching the local area from the NW as of this writing. Td values are well into the 60s ahead of the front, with drier air still well off to our north and NW. Mainly overcast along the coast late this morning, with clearing taking place just ahead of the frontal passage. That front is still on track to cross the area from northwest to southeast late this afternoon into this evening. Meanwhile, a weak shortwave will rotate around the west side of the offshore ridge, and track across the area. While it will remain partly cloudy (with perhaps an isolated shower) by mid to late afternoon, highs will still be around 80F, which is near daily records. See Climate section below. Enough moisture and lift hangs around ahead of the shortwave and frontal passage to allow for slightly better (30-40%) chances for showers and perhaps even a few rumbles of thunder late this aftn into tonight. The highest precip chances will be across central/SE VA...where areal average amounts of up to a couple of tenths of an inch of much-needed rainfall are possible. If we do see isolated tstms (which is still highly uncertain), locally higher rain amounts are likely. The guidance varies with respect to tstm potential, with some of the CAMs not showing any tstm development while others suggest the potential for highly localized rainfall totals of 0.50-1.00". Precip chances end from north to south late tonight/early Fri, after the front moves south of the FA. Lows late tonight drop into the 50s- 60F. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 255 AM EST Thursday... Key Message: - Dry weather with more seasonable temperatures is expected Friday and Saturday. Dry wx is expected to prevail Friday-Saturday night as high pressure builds from the Great Lakes to New England. Highs on Friday will range from the lower-mid 70s under partly to mostly sunny skies. A secondary (stronger but certainly not unseasonably strong) cold front crosses the FA Friday night. Breezy N-NNE winds (gusts to 25 mph) develop near the coast by early Sat. Lows Fri night in the 40s. Sunny/dry on Sat (and still breezy near the coast) with highs in the lower-mid 60s. Sat night will be the coldest night of the period as winds relax as sfc ridging (from the high to our N/NNE) becomes centered over the area. Lows fall into the mid 30s-lower 40s (except for mid-upper 40s near the SE VA/NE NC coast). && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 255 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - There is a better chance for showers from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Confidence is increasing that we will see at least 0.10-0.25" of rain across much of the area. -Dry/seasonable weather is expected next Tuesday and Wednesday. The main focus for the extended period is the potential for more widespread rain Sunday through Monday. Low pressure tracking well to our NW during this time will drag a cold front toward the area and eventually through the region (by late Mon/Mon night). Meanwhile, subtropical moisture spreading NNE ahead of the front will bring scattered to perhaps numerous showers to the entire area from Sun aftn through Mon morning. This appears to be the best chance of precip that we`ve had in a long time, and have raised PoPs to 60% across much of the area as both the GEFS and EPS have high probs for at least 0.10" of rain from 18z Sun-18z Mon...with 10-40% probs for at least 0.50" of rain. It`s important to note that the EPS had much lower probs for 0.10/0.50" of rain 24 hours ago, so it has trended upward since yesterday. Dry wx returns Mon night and continues through Wed. High temps will be near or above seasonal averages through the period, with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s, and lows in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 145 PM EST Thursday... VFR conditions are expected to continue through the 18z/07 TAF period. Mid/high level clouds across area terminals, with CIGs to remain VFR but slowly lower this aftn in advance of an approaching cold front. An isolated shower cannot be ruled out late this afternoon, with a better chance for scattered showers, and potentially an isolated thunderstorm or two this evening as the front and a weak disturbance cross the area. W winds this aftn veer around to the NNW in the wake of the front. Wind speeds should remain aob 8-10 kt. Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions are expected Friday through Saturday. Another frontal system approaches the region Sunday into early next week. && .MARINE...
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As of 255 PM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Benign marine conditions through the rest of the work week. - A reinforcing cold front approaches Friday night into Saturday and SCA have been issued for all of our marine waters. - Multiple front possible next week. Could bring more SCA conditions across all waters. Afternoon surface analysis shows a 1024mb high pressure sitting off the coast over Bermuda. The first of multiple fronts have already moved across the region causing winds to come out of the west. These winds are sustained between 5-10 kt across all waters as of 2pm. The possibility of a isolated shower over the bay still remains in the forecast through this evening. Waves through this evening will remain between 1-2ft across the bay and 2-3 ft across the ocean. Waves will not change much through the rest of the this evening, however, A brief surge of elevated winds (to 10-15 kt) is possible post cold front tonight/early Friday morning, but prevailing winds look to remain sub-SCA. A high pressure system will move north of the region Friday night into Saturday and bring in cooler and drier air across the area. The latest model guidance continues to have a slightly higher winds speeds than the previous runs. Winds are now forecasted to be out of the west northwest sustaining between 20-25 kt across all waters. Wind gusts are expected to remain below 30 kt, however, there could be some instances of wind gusts above 30 kt and perhaps even 35 kt. Given the higher wind forecast Friday night/Saturday morning, seas are now forecasted in the 4-6 ft range (highest srn waters), with waves in the bay 3-4 ft. SCA have been issued for all of the marine zones friday night into Saturday evening. Winds will subside quickly after the front Saturday morning, with winds around 5-10 kt across the bay and northern waters, and 10-25 across the southern waters. Winds will shift out of the south southeast late sunday with much lighter winds in the morning before increasing to just below SCA conditions by the afternoon. Seas/waves subside again later Saturday and Sunday, before increasing Sunday night once again. Looking toward next week model guidance continues to show multiple frontal passages that will move across the region that could bring SCA conditions across all waters.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record highs: Yesterday, 11/6 RIC: 82 (2022), Actual: 82 ORF: 85 (2003), Actual: 83 SBY: 81 (1961), Actual: 79 ECG: 83 (2022), Actual: 82 Today (Thursday), 11/7 RIC: 84 (2022) ORF: 79 (2022) SBY: 82 (2022) ECG: 81 (2022) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Friday to 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ630>632-634>638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Saturday for ANZ633- 650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ656- 658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAM LONG TERM...ERI/KMC AVIATION...ERI/MAM MARINE...HET/SW CLIMATE...