Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 201324

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
924 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Updated for correct issuance times.

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.


The monsoon trough along the coast of Africa near 11N15W extends
southwestward to 01N22W. The ITCZ continues westward from 01N22W
to the coast of South America near 00N49W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 01S-02N between 32W-40W.



A cold front extends from N Florida near 29N83W to the central
Gulf of Mexico near 27N90W, continuing thereafter to NE Mexico
near 24N98W. The front is associated with very little precipitation.
A surface trough is situated over the Bay of Campeche from 22N92W
to 18N94W. This trough is also associated with a lack of
precipitation. Scattered moderate convection is inland over the
Yucatan Peninsula and SE Mexico.

Expect the front to become stationary between south Florida and
NE Mexico later this morning. Visibility will remain unrestricted
across the Gulf and no showers or thunderstorms are expected
through this morning. The front will drift north over the western
Gulf as a warm front by late Friday afternoon. Fresh to strong
easterly winds are expected over the northeastern Gulf into Sat as
high pressure builds north of the area behind the front. The
front will weaken across Florida and the eastern Gulf on Sat,
possibly returning northward as a warm front on Sunday, ahead of
another cold front that will emerge off the Texas coast late Sat
night/early Sun morning. This second weak front will extend from
the mouth of the Mississippi River southwestward to near Veracruz
Mexico by late Sun, and from the Florida Panhandle to the
northeastern Yucatan peninsula by late Monday, followed by
moderate northerly winds.


An upper trough over the Caribbean is aiding the development of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across E Cuba and
Hispaniola. Similar showers and thunderstorms will continue over
N Colombia and NW Venezuela. Elsewhere, fresh to strong NE to E
surface winds persist off the coasts of NW Venezuela and N
Colombia with 10 to 12 ft seas. Otherwise, moderate winds and
seas accompanied by dry conditions persist across the basin.

For the forecast, building high pressure north of the area will
maintain fresh to locally strong tradewind flow along the north
coast of South America tonight. These winds will expand northward
over the south central Caribbean into the southwest Caribbean
through today, then diminish somewhat late this weekend into
early next week. Northeasterly swell will increase east of the
Leewards today, then decay from west to east through Sun.


A cold front will continue to move off the northeastern Florida
coast today and reach from near Bermuda to south Florida by late
today, then stall from 28N65W to the Straits of Florida by late
Sat. Remnants of the front will lift northward on Sun ahead of
another cold front that will move eastward across the southeastern
United States and enter the northwest waters by late Tue.

Farther east, a large 1033 mb high over the central Atlantic near
34N37W is producing moderate to fresh trade winds over the deep
tropics. Large long period northerly swell persists, with 10 to
14 ft seas covering the region north of 20N east of 50W, and 8 to
12 ft seas present north of 12N and east of 55W.

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