Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 142322
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
722 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over eastern New York will continue to slowly lift
northeast through New England overnight. Showers, some with very
heavy downpours will continue into the early evening before
diminishing. Brief high pressure will provide a mainly rain
free day on Wednesday before another frontal boundary with
showers and storms moves through Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Flash flood watch continues for northeast Pennsylvania and much
of central New York through this evening.

Widespread showers continue across the region this afternoon
although intensities are less than this morning and activity is
progressive. Upper level low in the Mohawk Valley will slowly
lift northeast overnight and into New England. Flash flood
threat will continue in the watch area into the early evening
hours especially since the soil is saturated in northeast
Pennsylvania and the southern tier. The western Catskills could
handle more rainfall before any flooding issues since not much
has fallen here during the past couple of days. Later this
evening the activity will wind down across the western Catskills
before exiting the local area. Overnight lows will range in the
lower to middle 60s.

Wednesday...Brief ridging both at the surface and aloft will
provide a mainly rain free day. During the afternoon diurnal
instability and a weak trough over northern New York could
produce an isolated shower/thunderstorm. High will range in the
lower to middle 80s.

Wednesday night...There could be an isolated shower/storm in
the far northern forecast area due to the weak trough but
overall a dry period. Low will range in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
305 PM update...

A trough sliding into the Ohio Valley will ignite another round
of showers and thunderstorms across NY and PA on Thursday. A
weak surface cyclone is expected to form along Lake Ontario by
Friday, enhancing the potential for thunderstorms, before the
system pulls a cold front through the region Friday night.

High temperatures will be in the middle-80s on Thursday and
between 80 and 85 degrees on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
315 PM update...

A cold front will slowly exit New England on Saturday, while a
weakening trough hangs across Eastern New York. The proximity of
the front suggests a chance for a shower or thunderstorm on
Saturday, though most of the day will be partly sunny.

A weak ridge over the Central United States will slide east and flatten
on Sunday. The lack of a surface feature leads us to believe Sunday
and Monday will be mainly dry, though pockets of instability may develop
in warm, humid antecedent conditions.

Temperatures will be cooler than normal on Saturday, with highs
in the middle-70s behind the cold front. Highs in the upper-70s
are forecast for Sunday. Temperatures will peak around 80 on
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Rain showers with embedded downpours will continue through
evening before tapering off between 11 PM and 1 AM. Highly
variable conditions are forecast, with a mix of VFR and MVFR
ceilings outside of rain showers, and IFR conditions in
downpours.

After the shower activity decreases, a widespread low stratus
cloud deck will form. A mix of MVFR and IFR ceilings is expected
through early-morning.

Clouds will break up during the mid-morning hours. VFR
conditions are expected for Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday...Primarily VFR although brief
restrictions possible in isolated convection.

Friday...Restrictions possible due to showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday/Sunday...Primarily VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ022>025-
     044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...BJT/RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP



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