Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 231046
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
646 AM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region today with rain showers
expected primarily during the afternoon. Tonight into
Wednesday night will be cooler with some lake effect rain and
snow showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM update...
Moisture remains trapped under a temperature inversion across
most of the area. Nothing is falling out of the clouds.
Temperatures have fallen into the upper 30s to mid 40s and
remained.

A warm front is approaching far western NY with some lift and a
little moisture. A few sprinkles are showing up on the radars
over far southern Ontario. This will progress east so have pops
starting at 11z in the far west and increasing and spreading
east as a cold front right behind the warm front approaches
midday. This front and a surface low will drop southeast and
cross upstate NY this afternoon with rain showers. A
thunderstorm is also possible with steep mid level lapse rates,
100 cape, and weak shear across CNY. Winds are weak especially
for late October but could produce gusty winds in thunderstorms.
An upper level trough moves east into the area with cold air
aloft. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s to mid 50s
with a modest southwest low level flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 am update...
Tonight synoptic moisture leaves but lake effect takes over.
The low level flow shifts to 330 with cold air advection. 850mb
temps fall to -5c late tonight and remain through Wednesday. Low
levels cool so rain mixes with then changes to snow. As with
the last several events this happens across the highest terrain
first. Snow amounts should be only a few tenths. Aloft an upper
level trough moves east into New England. Low temperatures in
the mid and upper 30s.

Wednesday with the cold air aloft providing some instability
rain showers will become cellular during the afternoon. Some
snow could mix with the rain early and late in the day. Winds
are stronger at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts. Highs mostly in
the low and mid 40s.

Slightly colder air will move in Wednesday night with northwest
flow at all levels. In the evening one last short wave moves
through. The low level flow becomes better aligned. Again
Wednesday evening looks to be the best time for light snow
accumulations of an inch or less across the higher terrain in
CNY. The usual lake effect areas between Syracuse, Binghamton,
and Oneonta. Late at night the lake effect weakens. Lows around
30.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
420 AM Update...
Still looking quiet Thursday-Friday, then we have prospects of
a coastal system over the weekend.

There remains a fair amount of uncertainty in the models, with
differing schools-of-thought remaining intact. The GFS has a
known bias with coastal systems in being too weak and too far
east at longer time ranges, and the 00Z operational run is still
hanging on to that idea with little impact for our area. The
ECMWF and Canadian models meanwhile more resemble each other in
tracking a fairly deep yet filling surface low up the Hudson
Valley, while 700mb and 500mb lows track well to our west which
would delay the cold air advection. Leaning more on the ECMWF-
Canadian scenario, this looks to be a mainly cool wet system.
Brief snow cannot be totally ruled out on the front end late
Friday night-early Saturday due to wet bulbing of precipitation
falling into initially dry low level air, and again late
Saturday night-early Sunday from cold air advection. However,
expectations for now are that the bulk of precipitation will
occur during the day Saturday and in the form of a chilly rain,
and it could be quite a bit of it. Half inch to inch of rainfall
could be the end result, on what would turn out to be an
unpleasant raw Saturday. Keep an eye on the forecast for
updates, due to the degree of uncertainty and thus still a range
of possibilities.

One adjustment that was also made, is that while it still
appears that sunshine will try to gain the upper hand on
Thursday after some lingering early morning flurries, high
clouds may actually increase fairly quickly on Friday, ahead of
the system. So after highs of upper 30s-lower 40s Thursday and
lows of mid-upper 20s Thursday night, moderation in temperatures
will be limited to only lower-mid 40s for highs Friday.

Previous discussion...
A Low pressure system will slowly organizes along the gulf
coast into the Southeastern United States on Friday then tracks
up the east coast this weekend. There is still quite a bit of
difference with the model and ensembles. The GFS suite continues
to be furthest east with the track that has minimal impacts to
our region but it should be noted some of the GEFS do bring
precipitation further west. However, the majority of global
models and ensembles do bring the low straight up the coast
bringing fairly widespread precipitation to our region. The
three main global models 12Z 10/22 appear to be falling victim
to typical biases with the east bias of the GFS, overphasing and
development on the Canadian and the feedback issues forming a
dual-low structure on the 12Z ECMWF. For now, the forecast
trends in the direction of the low coming up the coast. However,
a lot of uncertainty still is present for this weekend.

Another trend is for this storm to move in faster with
precipitation moving in by Saturday morning on most of the
modeling and ensembles. Temperatures look to be near freezing
Saturday morning with marginal boundary layer temperatures,
mixed precipitation  or even a period of snow is a concern
given some wetbulbing is likely Saturday morning. If the track
is up the coast, the boundary layer will likely warm fairly
quick and precipitation changes to rain for the remainder of the
event. A further out to sea track may result in more mixed
precipitation. Steady precipitation then will taper off to rain
and snow showers through Monday as a deep trough engulfs the
eastern United States. Temperatures will generally be in the
30`s and 40`s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
645 am update...

VFR conditions will continue into the afternoon. East to
southeast winds at 5 kts will shift to southwest around 15z and
increase to 5 to 10 kts.

A cold front will drop southeast into the area this afternoon
with showers and MVFR conditions especially the further north.
RME will have the lowest conditions dropping to MVFR around 20z
then to fuel alternate around 03z late this evening. SYR/ITH
also should have high end MVFR this evening. Winds will shift to
west around 20z with the front and increase to 10 kts. A few
gusts to 20 kts are possible at AVP/BGM this afternoon and
evening.

Late tonight conditions fall further in CNY. ELM falls to MVFR
while other sites all go to fuel alternate MVFR around 08z.
Winds west to northwest at 8 to 10 kts.

Outlook...

Wednesday to Wednesday night...Restrictions likely in rain and
snow showers in CNY. AVP VFR.

Thursday and Friday...VFR.

Saturday...Restrictions possible in rain showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MDP/MWG
AVIATION...TAC



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