Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 240022
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
722 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system lifting into eastern Canada will bring
rain to the area tonight. A cold front will slowly cross the
region on Thursday, changing the rain to snow showers before
ending. More seasonal temperatures return for the weekend along
with scattered flurries and snow showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

The early evening update updated rain chances throughout the
night with one batch of showers moving through now and the main
period of rain overnight. A look at the latest MMEFS does show a
few points possibly reaching minor stage which will continue to
be monitored through the overnight. Temperatures should
continue to slowly rise through the night as well.

The advisory is now cancelled for the entire region. A few
slick spots are still possible on roads and sidewalks through
late evening.

Temperatures have warmed above freezing across most locations
late this afternoon except for the eastern areas where areas of
freezing rain may still occur until late afternoon/early
evening.

Otherwise, low pressure lifting into eastern Canada will bring
warm/moist air into the area overnight with temperatures
expected to rise. A wave along the boundary in the mid Atlantic
region will slow the progress of the trailing cold front
Thursday morning and bring steady rain to much of northeast
Pennsylvania, the western Catskills and parts of the southern
tier. Rainfall up to 1.5 inches is possible by Thursday
afternoon in the southeast forecast area.

Rainfall and snowmelt will cause significant rises on area
rivers and stream tonight through Thursday night which could
lead to ice jams.

Thursday...Trailing cold front will move through the region
changing the rain to snow showers across central New York
during the morning and early afternoon period and across
northeast Pennsylvania mid to late afternoon. Temperatures will
fall into the 30s during the afternoon with a light snow
accumulation most places.

Thursday night...Scattered snow showers and flurries for the
region as an upper level trough builds over the northeast and
another surface trough approaches the area. Overnight lows will
range in the upper teens to lower 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM update...

This period centered around lake effect snow and additional snow
with a weak west to east boundary over Lake Ontario. Low level
flow is mostly out of the west so the heaviest snow will be in
northern Oneida County. Amounts do not look to be high enough
for a watch still. Models have diverged some with the placement
of the snow bands. The NAM shifts the band all the way into
Syracuse late Friday. Most of the other models continue with
placement in northern Oneida with maybe a hour or two further
south. Intensity and time in Oneida limited to around 6 hours so
have only a few inches of snow. Band does not stay stationary
for long. Also some wind shear. Soundings are similar with
saturated low levels approaching 10k ft. Dendrite zone starts
out centered at 5k ft then drops to the lowest 2k ft Friday
night. The heaviest snow will be Friday afternoon and evening
before the low level flow shifts to the WSW late Friday night.
With a west to maybe 290 flow the best snow showers will be
across the northern Finger Lakes to the western Mohawk Valley
and Tug Hill. Chances of snow taper off to slight chance for the
Scranton/WB metro area. When the wind shifts late Friday night
chances go to nothing south to chance in CNY Saturday.

Temperatures on the cold side again highs 20s Friday falling to
15  to 25 Saturday. Lows Friday night in the single digits.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...

Saturday night through Wednesday: A weak disturbance will move
through the area late Saturday night into Sunday, which will
bring a chance of snow showers to much of the area. Timing
differences remain within the models with the GFS and Canadian
on the faster side (bringing the onset of snow showers late
Saturday night). Meanwhile the ECMWF remains slower, holding off
the snow chances until the daytime hours Sunday. This weak
system will then continue to move eastward away from the area by
late Sunday/Sunday night. Then high pressure very briefly moves
in with a mostly dry period expected late Sunday night into
Monday. The exception will be over CNY, where there will be a
chance of lake effect snow showers.

Then the next system approaches from the west Monday night.
Along with the exact timing of the system being uncertain, the
track of the system is uncertain as well. Right now, model
consensus seems to suggest a track west of our area over or just
east of the Great Lakes. As a result of being on the warmer
side of the system, temperatures may be borderline for snow on
Tuesday. Should this westward trend continue, rain may be able
to mix in (or even completely change over) over portions of the
area, mainly south and east. For now still kept P-type as just
snow area-wide, but this may need to be updated as we get
closer. Then some lake effect snow showers possible for
Wednesday, mainly in CNY.

Temperatures will vary quite a bit during this period. Near
normal highs for Sunday, but then a quick shot of cold air
arrives on Monday with below normal temperatures. Should the
Tuesday system track west of the area, temperatures may rise to
a bit above normal for Tuesday after the passage of the leading
warm front. Back to below normal on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Generally IFR/MVFR ceilings and visibilities in showers this
evening then rain overnight. Moderate to high confidence that
ceilings fall to IFR values overnight and into the morning
hours Thursday. Rain looks to end as a period of IFR snow as
well with minor accumulations possible on runways. Ceilings
will then begin a slow lift later in the afternoon to MVFR. A
few southerly wind gusts of 15-20 knots through the night look
to give way to northwesterly wind gusts by tomorrow afternoon.
LLWS will also continue through the overnight hours tonight.


Outlook...

Thursday night through Saturday night...Restrictions possible
in snow showers, especially the NY terminals.

Sunday/Monday...Chance of snow and associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MWG/RRM
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...MWG


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