Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 052358
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
658 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures continue to trend warmer through the first half of
this week. Rain returns Tuesday morning and the weather remains
unsettled through midweek before a brief lull on Thursday.
Temperatures then trend cooler to finish out the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update:

High clouds will remain present through most of the overnight.
Ahead of an approaching frontal boundary, lower clouds move in,
increasing sky cover late tonight. Winds will remain gusty over
the Finger Lakes region with some gusts up to 30 mph. With
southerly flow advecting in warmer air and some sky cover
present, temperatures will be warmer than last night, only
falling into the upper 20s to mid 30s.

This frontal boundary will bring some scattered rain showers into
the region from the west Tuesday morning, tapping into marine
moisture advected in by south-southwesterly flow. BUFKIT
soundings show profiles are slow to become saturated, so
anything that may fall early Tuesday morning will be fairly
light, possibly just drizzle. But by mid-morning, soundings are
more saturated and these showers will be over most of the
region. Temperatures may be cool enough for isolated areas of
wintery mix of rain and snow, but model soundings favor just
rain. The front slows down and briefly becomes stationary to the
west and north of the region, so showers continue throughout
the day. PWATs will be fairly low for most of this event, so
these showers will not accumulate much. This southerly flow
will continue to advect warmer air into the region. However,
overcast skies and rain showers should keep temperatures cooler
than most guidance. A blend of the Conshort and NBM seemed to
line up better with ensemble guidance.This blend results in
temperatures in the 40s across the region. Some locations in the
lower elevations could reach the low 50s.

Showers continue Tuesday night, especially for areas east of
I-81 as the front slowly moves slowly drifts eastward. Total
QPF in this period ranges from 0.25 to 0.75 inches. Some higher
totals are possible in the Catskills. Temperatures continue to
trend warmer as lows will only fall a few degrees less than the
expected highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
255 PM Update

A broad upper level trough will keep our weather showery and
unsettled on Wednesday. Temperatures will be mild in the 40s to
lower 50s by afternoon, so precip type will be all rain with this
system. Overall rainfall amounts look light, between a tenth to
quarter inch across the region during the day time hours.

A weak low pressure center moves off the New England coast Wednesday
evening, dragging a cold front through the forecast area.
Temperatures aloft gradually fall back to around 0C at 850mb
overnight, as surface temperatures drop into the mid-30s to lower
40s for lows. Scattered showers eventually taper off, but some minor
lake effect rain showers or drizzle could linger...the 12z ECMWF is
colder aloft so would initiate a better lake response. Heading into
Thursday a 500mb ridge and Canadian surface high build over the
region. This should allow for a dry weather day, but clouds linger.
It will be slightly cooler, but still above average with highs in
the 40s...to lower 50s in the Wyoming Valley. High pressure likely
remains over the region into Thursday night, with partial clearing
over the Catskills/Mohawk Valley region. It will be cooler with lows
in the 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
245 PM Update

A good deal of uncertainty remains in the long term period, due to a
high latitude blocking pattern. Model guidance show a low pressure
system sliding across the Ohio Valley and toward our region Friday,
Friday night and perhaps lingering into Saturday. The GFS is the
further north model and warmer with this system. Meanwhile the 12z
CMC and ECMWF are slower and further south with this system...holding
off precip until Friday night and Saturday. On these slower/further
south solutions temperature profiles are marginal for a rain/snow
mix or just some snow. For now, with the considerable timing
and track differences in the guidance...continued to run with
the NBM for the official forecast...which better takes into
account the latest ensemble guidance. This gave lower end chance
PoPs for a light mix of rain and snow...especially for the
southern half of the CWA. One trend is for guidance to linger
showers longer into the day on Saturday, so PoPs were bumped up
into the slight chance range for this period, but could go
higher if this slower trend continues in the guidance. There
remains too much uncertainty and differences in the guidance
later in the weekend and into early next week to pin down any
details. Again, stuck very close to the NBM/ensemble guidance
considering the great deal of model divergence. This gave slight
chances for mixed showers, increasing to chance PoPs by Monday
as the next system starts to approach from the Great Lakes region.

Temperatures look to remain very steady for the entire long term
period, with highs each day in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Overnight
lows remain in the mid-20s to lower 30s each night. This is near
average for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to continue until around 12Z, before
rain showers and associated restrictions start to move into the
region from south to north (KAVP first, KRME last). Restrictions
during the morning hours will be mainly MVFR to Fuel Alternate,
before IFR ceilings and visbys start to occur during the
afternoon into the early evening.

Weak LLWS is expected this evening until the mid to late
morning for all terminals, but KAVP likely does not see LLWS
until around 12Z. LLWS is expected to dissipate by the
afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday evening through Wednesday...Restrictions expected with
rain showers.

Thursday...Lingering ceiling restrictions possible.

Friday...Chance for light rain/snow mix with occasional
restrictions possible.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTL/MPK
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...BJG


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