Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 250040
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
840 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching low pressure system will bring rain tonight into
Wednesday. Rain will taper off to showers Wednesday and then
gradually diminish Wednesday night into Thursday. Another
system will yield a good chance of rain Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
842 PM update...

The models continue to be too aggressive advecting precipitation
into a very dry airmass, indicated by dew points in the 30s. We
slowed the advance of the precipitation into our counties early
this evening by a few additional hours.

Precipitation should fill in as humidity rises in the lower
atmosphere late this evening.

The latest grid update has been sent.


3 PM update...

Mid and high clouds making some progress into the area this
afternoon well ahead of the rain and the center of the storm.
Clouds weren`t fast enough to slow the temperatures making it
into the mid and upper 60s and lower 70s. At low levels still
dry with the rain across western NY and central PA. Rain is
making slow progress and will only get into the far west and
southwest early evening, then to most of the CWA by midnight.
The stacked low moving northeast out of the Carolinas will
channel Atlantic moisture northwest into the area ahead of it.
Steady rain will be over the area late tonight into Wednesday
then start to lift northeast. The rain will be slow to end as
the northern and southern streams try to phase over our area
late Wed. Wed night the remaining wrap around rain showers lift
northeast into mostly CNY by sunrise.

Rainfall amounts are similar with half an inch to an inch across
most of the area. 1 to 1.5 inches possible in the upslope
regions of the southern Catskills to the Poconos. The entire
area has now had several days of dry weather so this amount of
rain over a long period shouldn`t be an issue. Thunderstorms
should stay along the coast. Over our area low and mid levels
will be saturated and stable.

Temperatures closer to normal with lows in the 40s both night
and highs Wednesday in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper low pulls east into western New England on Thursday.
Instability and cool air will result in scattered showers with
below normal temperatures. Brief ridging on Thursday night into
early Friday ahead of a fast moving low. Significant differences
exist in the models with the EURO dry Friday while the NAM/GFS
bring showers across the area as the low shears apart. With
continued upper trofiness, better chance that there will be a
few showers than none so have included chance pops during the
day Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Long wave trof will be over the area for the weekend keeping
cool air and unsettled weather for the region. Best chance for
showers will be on Saturday as a short wave rotates through the
trof enhancing the instability. Drier air and some ridging
arrives for Sunday and Monday. Expect temperatures to return to
near of slightly below normal on Monday as the air mass modifies
and heights build aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
800 PM Update...Mid and high level clouds have now overspread
the forecast area. CIGS will gradually lower this evening (5-10k
ft agl) with rain showers also developing from southwest to
northeast between about 01z - 06z. Occasional MVFR CIGS or VIS
may impact the taf sites later this evening into the first part
of the overnight as rain continues to overspread the region.
Fuel alternate CIGS are forecast to develop very late tonight
into Wednesday morning at most sites.

Confidence is lower during the day on Wednesday, as model
guidance differs on where the steadier rain will track. Leaned
toward the wetter, further west solutions of the HRRR, RAP and
ECMWF for now. This could bring additional periods of fuel
alternate or borderline IFR CIGS and/or VIS to the taf sites
into Wednesday afternoon. A front will slowly work its way
through the area from NW to SE later Wednesday and Wednesday
evening. Behind this front winds shift out of the NW with ample
low level moisture present for BR and continued restrictions.

South-southeast winds 8 to 15 kts this evening should shift more
east-southeast overnight, decreasing between 5 to 10 kts. Winds
become light and variable for a time Wednesday afternoon a slow
moving front approaches. Winds turn northwest early Wednesday
evening behind this front...less than 10 kts.


Outlook...

Wednesday night into Thursday morning...Restrictions likely
with rain showers. High confidence.

Thursday afternoon and Thursday night...Generally VFR. Moderate
confidence.

Friday to Saturday night...Some restrictions possible in
periods of rain showers. Moderate confidence.

Sunday...VFR. Moderate confidence.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...DJP/TAC
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MJM


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