Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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944
FXUS61 KBGM 160625
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
225 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move offshore today. The heat and humidity
builds through the end of the week thanks to southerly return
flow around the Bermuda high. A series of fast-moving
disturbances tracking across the northern U.S. along with
tropical moisture will produce several rounds of showers and
storms through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 PM UPDATE...

Grids in good shape this evening under high pressure. Just some
minor updates to the temps and winds to adjust to the currents
and trends. Previous discussion below.

Tonight...Surface high pressure situated over the region will
move to western New England by morning. A northern stream short
wave will pass through the northern forecast area late tonight
and early Tuesday morning. This wave will weaken as it moves
east due to the upper level ridge over the area. Will mention
slight chance POPs for showers across the western/northern
areas. Otherwise, this wave will bring increasing mid level
clouds overnight for central New York and limit any fog
formation. Overnight lows will range from the upper 50s to lower
60s.

Tuesday...Upper level ridge axis will move east of the area
allowing mid level short waves in southwest upper level flow to
cross the area primarily during the afternoon. Models indicate
MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg although kinematics are weak so severe
convection is not likely. Will continue with high chance POPs
for thunderstorms during the afternoon. Highs will range in the
mid to upper 80s under partly sunny skies.

Tuesday night...Deep southwest flow becomes established across
the region with atmosphere becoming increasingly moist as
tropical moisture from Barry approaches the area. The best
chance for showers and thunderstorms will be toward morning in
the northern forecast area where forcing looks strongest due to
mid level waves and isentropic lift. Will mention chance for
heavy rain late as precipitable water values exceed 2 inches.
Overnight lows will range in the mid 60s to lower 70s and feel
rather muggy

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Moisture associated with tropical remnants caught in the upper
atmospheric flow will drift across Central NY and Northeast PA
on Wednesday and Wednesday night. PWAT values are forecast to
climb to around 2 to 2.25 inches and dew points between 70-75.
There will likely be ample cloud cover around, but any breaks of
sun will allow for increasing instability. With this amount of
moisture, we will need to monitor thunderstorms for torrential,
tropical downpours. Overall, as the remnants of Barry move
through there looks be only a weak surface trough, but sill a
well defined mid level wave...therefore there should be enough
forcing to initiate numerous to widespread convection. Rainfall
amounts will be highly localized, depending on where the
heaviest thunderstorm activity sets up. WPC now has the
northwestern portion of our CWA under a slight risk of flash-
flooding Wednesday into Wednesday night. Current flash flood
guidance is rather high, between 1.75 to 2.5 in 1 hour.
Otherwise, Wednesday looks mostly cloudy and not as warm
(especially across Central NY)...with highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s for CNY, and in the low to mid-80s across NE PA.

Showers and thunderstorms look to linger into Wednesday night,
especially from the Twin Tiers south into NE PA. The mid and upper
level trough axis only slowly crosses the area by Thursday morning
or midday. Therefore, additional showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to develop especially across our eastern zones. These
showers and storms could be slow moving across the Catskills and
Poconos region, but PWATS and overall moisture lower some compared
to Wednesday. Some breaks of sun are expected later on Thursday and
temperatures will respond accordingly, reaching well into the 80s
with muggy dew points still in the lower 70s. Thursday night is
forecast to be mainly dry as the the tropical remnants finally push
east. Some model guidance is hinting at a complex of showers and
embedded thunderstorms possibly skirting by our northern zones
toward Friday morning. Humid with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A very warm and somewhat unsettled period is forecast during the
long term. Ridging aloft will build into Central NY and Northeast PA
and set the stage for hot temperatures on Friday. Temperatures will
climb into the upper 80s to mid-90s, and combined with dew points 70-
75, apparent temperatures between 95 and 105 could result. An
isolated thunderstorm is possible, especially north of
Binghamton into Central NY.

The heat will persist into Saturday despite a surface feature to the
east pulling a northwest flow across NY and PA. Temperatures will
once again climb to 88-95, but dew points will be slightly lower, in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Isolated thunderstorms are possible once
again. Apparent temperatures still look to be between 95-102 across
much of central NY....and 98-105 in northeast PA. Heat headlines
will likely be issued for much of the area as we draw closer to this
period and confidence increases.

Some minor relief is expected Sunday and Monday as a frontal
boundary passes through the region. Temperatures will reach the
middle 80s to lower 90s. Again, we can`t rule out an isolated
thunderstorm for Sunday, with slightly higher chances by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thicker mid and high clouds overspreading the area should
prevent fog or stratus from developing early this morning. A
brief shower is possible across northern terminals (SYR, RME and
possibly ITH) just after sunset through mid morning but no
flight restrictions were put in the forecast as coverage and
intensity should be diminishing by the time it moves through the
area.

Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop around
17-19Z this afternoon along a remnant W-E oriented boundary.
There is still some uncertainty regarding where exactly this
boundary will be located but hi-res model guidance has clustered
toward the Southern Tier of NY. This activity may become more
numerous in coverage later in the afternoon (20-23Z) as it
expands into CNY and far NEPA. Confidence and anticipated
coverage of storms are highest (where likely PoPs are forecast)
in vicinity of ELM, BGM, and ITH. Given the potential storms
are still 12-18 hours out from 06Z TAF issuance, opted to be
conservative with a 3-4 hr Prob30 TSRA group (with only MVFR
restrictions) for these three sites. Further refinement will be
needed with future iterations. A light SW wind 4-8 kt this
morning will become W-SW this afternoon.

Shower and thunderstorms will move east and diminish after
sunset this evening. Light and variable winds tonight. Leftover
cloud cover from this evening`s convection should inhibit fog
development tonight.

The next round of showers and embedded isolated storms arrive
in northern/western zones (SYR/RME) before sunrise early
Wednesday morning with MVFR restrictions possible. Coverage of
these showers may not be as high farther south into the Southern
Tier and NEPA terminals. Additional scattered showers and storms
are expected Wednesday afternoon. SW winds 5-10 kt are expected.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Saturday...This unsettled weather
pattern continues with a series of disturbances providing chances
for showers and storms. Brief/localized restrictions possible.
Even with increasing moisture at the surface, the potential for
fog each night will depend on how much debris clouds are
leftover from diurnal convection.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JRK
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP/MJM
LONG TERM...DJP/MJM
AVIATION...JRK



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