Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 210120
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
920 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A northwest flow of cool air will develop behind a cold front
tonight. Isolated light showers are still possible tonight
before much drier air moves in for Tuesday. That dry and
comfortable will remain into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

As of 920 PM Monday...

Forecast remains mostly on-track, however, had to increase
clouds from the west a little quicker. Overcast stratus deck is
pushing in from the west and will overspread the region over the
next several hours.

As of 515 PM Monday...

Lowered PoP across the region as cold front exits this evening.
Not seeing too much shower activity behind the front, but there
is a weak short wave that pass across the north overnight in the
NW flow. This may produce some light showers across the Tug
Hill Plateau and Mohawk Valley, however, kept PoPs to only low
chance as moisture will be lacking behind the front.

Previous Discussion...

Cold front is moving through central NY and NEPA at this time. A
few showers are possible ahead of the front, and perhaps some
instability showers overnight and the upper wave passes. Best
chance for this seems to be along any lake frictional boundaries
and over the higher terrain of the Catskills and the Tug Hill.
Otherwise a general clearing trend is expected overnight and
into Tuesday. Winds will stay up overnight as the gradient stays
rather tight with even some gusts in the 20 mph range.

Continued northwest flow will keep a cool and breezy day on
Tuesday. High pressure will build in on Tuesday night allowing
the winds will die down under clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM Update

No major changes to the short term period with this update; just
made some minor timing/temperature adjustments.

A fairly quiet mid-week period is in store with high
pressure building across the area on Wednesday. The dry air mass
will support mostly sunny skies with temperatures reaching
70-75 degrees in most areas. Low humidity will make it feel
rather comfortable too, with a light northwest breezy 5 to 10
mph.

The main upper ridge axis will shift to the east as a weak embedded
short wave nudges in from the west and brings in a slight chance
to low end chance for a few rain showers Weds night. The air
mass will be slightly more unstable on Thursday as the flow
turns southerly with temperatures into the mid to upper 70s,
and dew points 55 to 60 by afternoon. Another stronger short
wave and associated surface low will track from the nrn Great
Lakes into the New England area later Thursday into Thursday
night, interacting with the unstable air mass to produce more
showers and thunderstorms across the region. Latest guidance
seems to be indicating the potential for moderate amounts of
instability Thursday; mainly 500-900 J/Kg...with fairly strong
amounts of deep layer shear 50-60 kts also possible. Will need
to watch this period for perhaps some organized convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
345 PM Update...

No major changes to the long term period with this update...only
minor tweaks based on the latest blended model data.

As the system moves out of the region Thursday night the
showers should taper off Friday morning. The upper ridge
re-amplifies again on Friday north across most of the
Northeast...which should keep most of the area dry with warm
temperatures. Highs on Friday will top out in the 70s. The quiet
weather should hold into early Saturday morning before the
ridge axis leans eastward due to another wave expected to slide
across the nrn Great Lakes and drag a cold front through NY/PA
with more showers and storms Sat and Sat night. Weak rising
heights on Sunday/Monday behind the departing system may bring
another brief dry period, but confidence is not that high as the
pattern looks to potentially become more zonal early next week
across the Northeast...due to the dome of high pressure over the
Southeast dropping back south slightly and weakening a bit.

Temperatures will remain on the mild side late this week and
into the weekend with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 735 PM Monday

Cold front is almost completely through the region, with AVP
being the last site still out ahead of the front and it should
cross there within the hour. Behind the front, MVFR stratus will
be possible overnight as cooler air pushes in. Have left out
MVFR ceilings at AVP, as confidence is lower that the deck will
make it that far south. Gusty winds will ease a bit after
sunset, but still expecting winds in the 10 to 15 knot range out
of the NW overnight. Skies will clear out for tomorrow, for a
return to VFR conditions.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Wednesday...VFR with high pressure.

Thursday...Brief restrictions possible in showers or
thunderstorms.

Friday...VFR.

Saturday...Restrictions possible in afternoon showers or
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DGM/MPK
SHORT TERM...BJT/MJM
LONG TERM...BJT/MJM
AVIATION...MPK


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