Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 150522
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
122 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will bring a quiet weather day to NY and PA
Saturday, before a trough of low pressure pushes scattered showers
and thunderstorms into our region Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Isolated sprinkles are moving through the region early this
morning. Cloud cover will make it difficult for valley fog to
form before sunrise, but we could see patchy fog along the
rivers during the early morning.

Except for a stray shower over our southern counties, Saturday
will be quiet and mild with temperatures around 80.

A digging trough of low pressure will rotate through the Great
Lakes Saturday night. This will increase our chances for showers
and thunderstorms Sunday as humidity levels increase in
southerly flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

330 pm update

A more unsettled weather period expected as a series of troughs
and weak fronts move through on both Sunday and Monday. This
will keep scattered showers and a few thunderstorms in the
forecast. See below fore more details:

Sunday: A moist, low level easterly flow of maritime/marine air
will push into our eastern zones by Sunday morning. This will
likely keep conditions mostly cloudy or overcast, humid and cool
across the western Catskills and Poconos most of the day. There
could also be a few showers or even pockets of drizzle in these
locations...highs only top out between 68-75 here. Further west
(west of I-81 and north of I-88) expect the marine layer clouds
to either not make it in, or slowly break up by late morning.
This will allow temperatures to rise into the upper 70s to lower
80s and create more instability. A weak frontal boundary pushes
in from the west later in the day, and is expected to ignite
isolated to scattered showers along with a few thunderstorms....
especially out toward the Finger lakes region. Don`t think
Sunday will be a washout for any one location...but will have to
keep a close eye on a developing coastal low and it`s proximity
to the East Coast. If this low shifts any further NW, it could
mean more rain for the Poconos and southern Catskills. The
showers and isolated t`storms that do develop should be moving
from SE to NW across the region.

Our region will still be under the influence of the upper level
trough Sunday night, but will be in between main shortwave
disturbances. Therefore, there is still a low chance for a few
showers or embedded t`storms, especially north of Binghamton
across CNY. Otherwise, seasonable overnight lows and partly to
mostly cloudy conditions expected.

A stronger shortwave trough and surface front move through the
area on Monday. Model guidance is showing more widespread
instability, perhaps 300-600 J/Kg of MLCAPE and about 30-40 kts
of deep layer shear. The current timing of the front would bring
the best chance for more organized t`storms across the central
and eastern part of the area. Timing trends will need to be
watched closely in the coming days. For now, have 30-50 PoP for
t`storms across the area Monday afternoon. Outside of the
showers and storms it should be partly sunny and seasonable with
highs in the upper 70s to mid-80s. Much drier and somewhat
cooler air arrives by Monday night as the trough axis and
surface front shift east of our CWA. Expect partial clearing
with overnight lows down into the 50s or low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 PM Update

The upper level trough shifts north across northern New England
and southern Canada on Tuesday. This will put our area under a
much cooler and drier northwest flow pattern. Cannot rule out a
few isolated showers up north due to some lingering instability
and the proximity to the upper low. Otherwise, it should be
partly sunny and a little cooler, with highs in the 70s across
CNY and upper 70s to lower 80s in NE PA. Dew points only in the
upper 40s to mid-50s...so again, much drier feeling. It could be
a little breezy, with northwest winds 8-15 mph. High pressure
builds overhead Tuesday night, bringing clear and cool conditions
with lows 50-55 for most locations (upper 50s still Wyoming
Valley and Finger Lakes).

Our area is then between a large and expansive upper level
trough still up across southern Canada and a weak wave moving
across the Tennessee Valley to Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, it`s
looking dry on Wednesday, with a slight rebound in temperatures
back up to seasonal levels. The trough swings another front
through the area later Wednesday night and Thursday. The GFS has
the front washing out and really weakening as it approaches,
with the ECMWF keeping a more well defined boundary through the
region. There will be a slight chance to low end chance for a
few showers or t`storms on Thursday under this pattern. The
gradual warming trend continues, with highs expected to be 1-3
degrees warmer than Wednesday (low to mid-80s for most).

Model spread increases by next Friday, with the 12z ECMWF
showing dry weather and high pressure over the region.
Meanwhile, the GFS brings more moisture and some showers up into
our NE PA zones...stuck close to the NBM guidance for this
period considering the uncertainty...this gave just a slight
chance of showers. Similar temperatures as Thursday forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR conditions and winds below 10 knots will be the rule for the
next 24 hours. There could be a brief period of light fog at
KELM around sunrise. Visibilities in fog will drop to between
2SM and 4SM.

A stray shower could pop up near KAVP this afternoon. The
probability is too low to justify inclusion in the TAF.

Outlook...

Saturday night and Sunday...Early morning fog possible,
especially for KELM. Restrictions possible in scattered showers
and storms.

Monday...Restrictions possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...DJP/MJM
AVIATION...DJP



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