Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBGM 231439
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1039 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring clear skies back to NY and PA this
afternoon, then milder air will push into our region on Sunday
ahead of an approaching storm system moving toward the Ohio
Valley. This storm will spread snow showers across NY and PA
Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1030 AM update...
Tweaked temperatures, sky cover and continued flurries downwind
of Lake Ontario and the Finger Lakes based on radar and
satellite trends. With continued large scale subsidence on the
backside of an departing upper level wave, strong low-level dry
air advection and strong convective mixing with the late March
sun, we will see skies clear even in our higher terrain areas
from the Catskills to Otsego/Madison and southern Oneida
Counties. Continued lingering flurries in these areas a couple
more hours. Otherwise no major changes.

520 AM update...

Snow showers have weakened across the region, and the warnings
and advisories have been cancelled.

300 AM update...

Snow showers will rapidly weaken during the early morning hours
as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes toward New
England. Rapid clearing is forecast this afternoon, though a
brisk northwest flow will keep temperatures in the 30s.

After a chilly overnight, rising heights ahead of an approaching
storm will yield noticeably milder temperatures on Sunday.
Temperatures will climb to between 50 and 55 degrees along the
Twin Tiers with cooler readings over Western Mohawk Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A storm dropping into NY Sunday night will spawn snow showers
with a few rain showers possible in the slightly milder air from
the Southern Tier to Luzerne and Pike. Light snow accumulation
is forecast.

The cold front should finish moving out of our area Monday. Expected
strong low-level cold advection, in wake of the front, should result
in nearly steady or slowly falling temperatures through the day
across the region.  While I can`t rule out a little bit of lake-
effect snow until the passage of the main upper trough axis late
Monday afternoon or evening, it seems rather unlikely at this time.
Less-than-favorable low-level wind and moisture profiles appear to
be present from the latest forecast soundings.  As such, I expect
precipitation probabilities to lower more rapidly during the day
Monday, with dry weather conditions returning for Monday
afternoon and night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A surface high is forecast to move into the Northeast Tuesday and
remain in control through mid-week with mostly dry conditions
expected.  By Wednesday night, expect the high to begin moving east
in response to an amplifying upper-level flow over Southern
Canada/Northern Plains. The combination of a strengthening southerly
flow on the back side of the high and shortwave ridging should allow
above normal temperatures to be seen Thursday and Friday.  Friday
will likely be the warmest day of the week, with highs in the middle
and upper 50s appearing to be a good bet.  A few highs around 60 are
not out of the realm of possibility.

The next storm system should move out of the Great Lakes region and
affect our area some time from late Friday afternoon through
Saturday.  Given uncertainty remaining in the timing/evolution of
this system, very little will be changed with regard to
precipitation probabilities heading into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR ceilings will continue for the next few hours at KBGM,
KRME, KITH, and KAVP. Ceilings should rise to VFR levels between
12z and 14z.

As dry air works into the region, skies are forecast to clear
between 14z and 18z.

West winds will gust at 25 to 30 knots through the afternoon
hours.

Outlook...

Sunday through Sunday night... Mainly VFR until MVFR ceilings
form late Sunday night. A few rain or snow showers possible
toward sunrise Monday.

Monday... Any MVFR ceilings lifting through the day with
scattered rain or snow showers ending.

Monday night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/DJP
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...DAB/DJP
LONG TERM...DAB
AVIATION...DJP


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.