Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 141043
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
443 AM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 443 AM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Improving weather is expected through today as yesterday`s strong
storm system tracks out over the Upper Midwest. Snowfall has ended
across most of northeast Colorado, except for some lingering light
snow over Sedgwick and Phillips Counties. Gusty winds diminished
somewhat overnight due to the formation of some diurnal
inversions, but winds are expected to increase again by mid-
morning as vertical mixing increases with diurnal warming. Model
cross sections indicate that there are still 50 knot winds just
off the surface. This will cause some blowing and drifting of snow
to continue over far northeast Colorado, but visibilities should
be improved enough that a Blizzard Warning is no longer needed.
Over the east end of the Palmer Divide, winds may still increase
to High Wind criteria, so the High Wind Warning will continue for
zones 46 and 47. The warning will be cancelled for zone 41,
Douglas and western Elbert Counties, since they are farther from
the departing storm system.

Over the mountains, scattered orographic snow showers will be
possible, mainly this morning. Some areas may receive an inch or
two of new snow. On the plains, gradually clearing skies are
expected as drier air moves into the state from the north. An
upper ridge will be building over the state which will decrease
the surface pressure gradients and bring lighter winds aloft.
Clear skies and lighter winds across the forecast area tonight
will lead to very chilly temperatures, especially over the
northeast corner of the state where freshly fallen and drifted
snow will create optimum radiational cooling conditions. Areas
over the northeast corner of the state could see lows in the lower
teens. The remainder of the plains will see lows in the 20s to
lower 30s, warmest along the I-25 corridor which did not see any
snowfall from yesterday`s storm.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 443 AM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

A calmer weather pattern will return to the area on Sun.  There is
some moisture moving across in NW flow in the morning which may
produce a slight chc of snow showers in the mtns.  Otherwise it
should be dry. Highs will be warmer across nern CO, however,
lingering snow cover over the far nern plains will keep temps in
the 40`s. Closer to the front range readings will be in the lower
to mid 60`s.

For Sun night into Mon the flow aloft will become more WSW with only
some higher level moisture embedded in the flow.  Meanwhile a sfc
lee trough will intensify along the front range with gusty south to
southeast winds across the plains by aftn.  Aftn highs will continue
to warm over the plains with readings ranging from the upper 50s
over the far nern corner, to the mid to upper 70s around the Denver
area.

On Tue an upper level trough will move across the nrn and cntrl
Rockies.  The ECMWF is stronger and a little slower with the srn
extension of the trough.  Overall the system has favorable qg ascent
and decent lapse rates which should bring a good chc of snow to the
mtns.  Across nern CO a bora type fnt will move across the plains by
midday with gusty WNW winds which could get close to high wind
criteria.  Meanwhile there could be a few showers over the far nern
corner in the aftn.  Highs on Tue will range from the upper 50s to
mid 60s across the nern CO.

For Tue night into early Wed stg susbsidence will develop over the
area behind the upper level trough as moisture decreases in the
mtns.  Cross-sections show some potential for high winds in the
foothills as component along winds increase to 50 kts.  Highs will
be near seasonal levels.

On Thu the flow aloft will become SWLY as a storm system moves into
the wrn US.  Cross-sections only show some higher level moisture
embedded in the flow so it looks dry with highs in the 60`s over
nern CO.  By Fri morning the storm system will move into the Great
Basin and then the ECMWF and GFS begin to diverge with its track.
The GFS moves an upper level low east northeast across srn Wyoming
while the ECMWF has it over srn Colorado.  Naturally a more srn
track would bring significant pcpn to much of the area while a more
nrn track would keep the best chc of pcpn in the nrn mtns and north
of nern CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 443 AM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Gusty north winds will continue today, gusting up to 30 or 40
knots through midday. A gradual decrease in winds is expected
through the afternoon. Ceilings and visibilities will be VFR. No
aviation impacts are expected tonight as winds drop to 14 knots or
less.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for COZ046-047.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...Dankers



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